Monthly Archives: April 2023

Life experience shapes voting preferences

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We are most often concerned about the growing count of retiring boomers and millennials  and what that means for health Care, assisted living and viable income. We are concerned about the number of houses available for those in midlife. We are concerned about sidewalks crowded with the indigent homeless. Certainly, these are real, critical issues. But what is important to those of the younger generation just starting out on the adult path through life? Here’s an exegesis perspective drawn from AXIOS and other sources:

 

Fear of the future is mobilizing young Americans, who grew up in an age of mass shootings, to vote in near-record numbers, Axios’ Erica Pandey writes.

Last year’s midterms saw the second-highest turnout among voters under 30 (27%) in at least the past three decades, NPR notes.

Nearly half of Americans 18 to 29 say they’ve felt unsafe in the past month, according to a new poll from the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics.  This is a generation that feels besieged, says John Della Volpe, the institute’s polling director.

21% say they’ve felt unsafe at school. And 40% are concerned about being victims of gun violence or a mass shooting.

This critical voting bloc continues to tilt the scales in favor of Democratic candidates — whom young people overwhelmingly support. Young voters’ influence “enabled the Democrats to win almost every battleground statewide contest and increase their majority in the U.S. Senate,” Brookings Institution analysts write.

Younger voters are also quite worried about the state of the economy:

73% believe that homelessness could happen to anyone and 32% fear they could one day be homeless. That share rises to 43% and 39% among Hispanic and Black youth.

The boomers and the millennials and too many from the silent generation still are running the nation and its society. The oldsters should be glad to be old and to have finished Jason’s ‘Arc of the Hero’. But the oldsters should have guilt about the shape of society they have left for the youngsters.

As a preschooler, Mariner remembers the blackouts ordered by sirens and the prevalence of uniformed men everywhere. His grandmother volunteered for the Air Defense Command and tracked airplanes in flight. Lying in bed at night, he actually trembled until he could recognize that it was only a passing train instead of a German bomber. Over the years of his life, he has felt disdain for wars – not just prejudice but the idea of killing people for the hell of it. [the reader may recall the Jolly Roger cartoon from the previous post]

We mature types owe our children some headway in our emerging society – not Trump, not Biden, not McCarthy, not even Marjorie Taylor Greene – we owe our children.

How can we mow a path to civility through this morass of thistle-bearing society we have created?

Ancient Mariner.

 

These times they are a-changin

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֎ Americans retiring now are going it alone: They’re the first generation to rely on private savings instead of pensions to navigate the financial unknown of retirement.

֎ Private Equity has moved into health services. Their objective isn’t health, its profit. They said so themselves. Here’s an example: The term is ‘noncompete’.  It’s a clause in a doctor’s contract that says they cannot practice medicine outside their own facility; if they leave, they cannot care for prior patients.

֎ School districts in Nevada, Iowa, Virginia, California and other states are embracing “equitable grading,” which minimizes the importance of daily homework and focuses on final projects and tests. In short, to be fair to students with and without smartphones or computers, with or without after-school jobs and bussed or walking home. More emphasis will be put on in-class performance.

֎ The average American is roughly six times more likely to die in the coming year than his counterpart in Switzerland. American infants are less likely to turn 5, American teenagers are less likely to turn 30, and American 30-somethings are less likely to survive to retirement. Gun deaths among U.S. children and teens have doubled in the past 10 years, reaching the highest level of gun violence against children recorded this century.

֎ College professors are using ChatGTP to write recommendations on behalf of students. Faculty writes loads of these every year, in support of applications for internships, fellowships, industry jobs, graduate school, university posts.

֎ This one is not new but perhaps we should take note. A man or woman with conviction is a hard person to change. Tell them you disagree and they turn away. Show them facts or figures and they question your sources. Appeal to logic and they fail to see your point … Suppose that they are presented with evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence, that their belief is wrong: what will happen? They will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of their beliefs than ever before.

Some things never change – about ourselves.

Ancient Mariner

Whither we go?

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Perhaps this post is a form of Requiem Mass for Bed, Bath and Beyond. Further, a favorite local branch of the department store Shopko, also has passed. There is a mall in a good-sized town nearby that was the center of a shopping beehive fifteen years ago. It stands empty, stark testimony to a time gone by.

Mariner walked down the main street of his small town noting the sparse retail presence. When he first visited sixty years ago, the town was the business heart of the county and enjoyed a farmer shopping invasion every Saturday. It’s hard to believe this small town once hosted three farm implement shops and two car dealerships.

Today, rural society suffers great duress – which is reflected in national politics.

But the issue goes beyond small towns and rural living. Society, as a phenomenon, is tied to resource management, specie sustainability and a balance with the greater environment. This is the intended lifestyle not only of humans but all types of species – especially our fellow primates.

As mariner has lamented many times, the tribal culture is a solution to the above-mentioned phenomena. Tribal association has proven to be a sustainable lifestyle even in tumultuous times like war. Today, extended families and tribal economies are shredded and spread around the world.

Whither we go? There are two movies to recommend. One, of course is Matrix, an oft-touted movie about the distant future when humans lived their entire life in a coffin supported by automated life sustainability and a three-dimensional, interactive reality fed to them electronically. The other movie, which reflects the conflagration of society today, is a dark comedy about life. It’s called “Little Murders’. Check it out on YouTube.

While it is true that mariner is an old fogie and well past his generational prime, he is not unduly stupid. He once watched a young person put on one of those face masks that supplanted visual and reflex behaviors with a Matrix-like reality. Add to this the dissipation of extended family, de-socialization of public schooling with laptops, smartphones, home delivery of anything and everything, cashless economy, robots for anything from cleaning house and cutting grass to the most private pleasures, and one can say, “Who needs limbic response?”

Whither we go?

Goodbye, Bed, Bath and Beyond.

Ancient Mariner

As we roll to 2024

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Mariner knows he puts out a lot of negative stuff (if he ever hears of a positive stuff, he’ll headline it). However, this paragraph below from 538, a respected pollster and sports oddsmaker, represents an assignment to each and every democrat and independent individual:

“Today, FiveThirtyEight is launching our national polling average for the 2024 Republican presidential primary. It shows former President Donald Trump receiving 49.3 percent of the national vote and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (who has not officially entered the race) receiving 26.2 percent. Former Vice President Mike Pence, another potential candidate, is at 5.8 percent, while declared candidate and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is at 4.3 percent.”

The assignment is this. Participate in local politics; put up a sign; make sure your friends and neighbors know your political position; donate (only) to your preferred local candidate; and, of course, attend the party’s local caucus and vote on election day!! (Congress is important, too – just beating on it doesn’t do any good; ever heard of beating a dead horse? Let’s elect a new young one!)

These are not normal times. In fact, they are a bit scary for every human around the world, not just democrats. 2024 is unique and the future 25 years will role out heavily influenced by the 2024 election.

Perhaps we should get 88 year-old Chuck Grassly (R-IA) and 80 year-old Joe Biden to run against each other in 2024. Then there would be only one theme: “Make America Eden Again”.

Just to prove the pudding, here’s some positive stuff from Science Magazine:

“A novel cancer vaccine tailored to genetic changes in a person’s tumor is showing promise in the clinic. In a study of about 150 people who had surgery for melanoma, a type of skin cancer, those given a personalized vaccine along with an immunotherapy drug were more likely to remain free of cancer 18 months later than patients who did not receive the vaccine.”

Ancient mariner

The REAL Election Results

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Printed by Politico

Here are your Lobbying Disclosure Act revenue rankings for the first quarter of 2023.

Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck: $15.8 million (versus $15.6 million in Q4 2022 and $15.4 million in Q1 2022)

Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld: $13.4 million (versus $14.1 million in Q4 2022 and $13 million in Q1 2022)

Holland & Knight: $10.8 million (versus $11.1 million in Q4 2022 and $10.1 million in Q1 2022)

BGR Group: $10.2 million (versus $10.1 million in Q4 2022 and $9.6 million in Q1 2022)

Cornerstone Government Affairs: $9.8 million (versus $9.5 million in Q4 2022 and $9.2 million in Q1 2022)

Invariant: $9.7 million (versus $9.9 million in Q4 2022 and $9.2 million in Q1 2022)

Thorn Run Partners: $6.5 million (versus $6.7 million in Q4 2022 and $6.4 million in Q1 2022)

Capitol Counsel: $6.3 million (versus $6.5 million in Q4 2022 and $6 million in Q1 2022)

Mehlman Consulting: $6.3 million (versus $6.4 million in Q4 2022 and $6.4 million in Q1 2022)

Forbes Tate Partners: $6.1 million (versus $6.2 million in Q4 2022 and $6.1 million in Q1 2022)

Squire Patton Boggs: $6 million (versus $6.1 million in Q4 2022 and $7.2 million in Q1 2022)

Crossroads Strategies: $5.9 million (versus $6 million in Q4 2022 and $5.8 million in Q1 2022)

Tiber Creek Group: $5.8 million (versus $6.3 million in Q4 2022 and $6.3 million in Q1 2022)

K&L Gates: $5.5 million (versus $5.3 million in Q4 2022 and $5.2 million in Q1 2022)

Cassidy & Associates: $5.4 million (versus $5.6 million in Q4 2022 and $5.5 million in Q1 2022)

Subject Matter: $4.8 million (versus $4.8 million in Q4 2022 and $4.9 million in Q1 2022)

Van Scoyoc Associates: $4.8 million (versus $6 million in Q4 2022 and $4.5 million in Q1 2022)

Alpine Group: $4.6 million (versus $4.7 million in Q4 2022 and $4.2 million in Q1 2022)

Ballard Partners: $4.5 million (versus $4.3 million in Q4 2022 and $4.4 million in Q1 2022)

Monument Advocacy: $3.9 million (versus $3.6 million in Q4 2022 and $3.3 million in Q1 2022)

 

OTHER NOTABLE FIRMS:

 

— Fierce Government Relations: $3.2 million (versus $3.2 million in Q4 2022 and $3.2 million in Q1 2022)

 

— Venable: $3 million (versus $2.9 million in Q4 2022 and $2.4 million in Q1 2022)

 

— Kountoupes Denham Carr & Reid: $2.9 million (versus $3 million in Q4 2022 and $2,820,000 million in Q1 2022)

 

— Venn Strategies: $2.8 million (versus $2.6 million in Q4 2022 and $2.8 million in Q1 2022)

 

— Vogel Group: $2.6 million (versus $2.7 million in Q4 2022 and $2.2 million in Q1 2022)

 

— Miller Strategies: $2.9 million* (versus $2.5 million* in Q4 2022 and $2 million* in Q1 2022)

 

*Estimated based on Senate disclosure filings. All other numbers have been verified by the firms.

 

TOP SPENDERS:

 

Chamber of Commerce of the U.S.A.: $18.7 million (versus $21 million in Q4 2022 and $18.7 million in Q1 2022)

National Association Of Realtors: $13.3 million (versus $25.3 million in Q4 2022 and $12.1 million in Q1 2022)

Pharmaceutical Research And Manufacturers Of America: $8 million (versus $6.6 million in Q4 2022 and $8.1 million in Q1 2022)

CVS Health (and subsidiaries): $7 million (versus $3.8 million in Q4 2022 and $3.7million in Q1 2022)

American Medical Association: $6.7 million (versus $5.1 million in Q4 2022 and $6.5 million in Q1 2022)

American Hospital Association: $5.6 million (versus $7 million in Q4 2022 and $5.4 million in Q1 2022)

The Cigna Group and subsidiaries (formerly Cigna Corporation and subsidiaries): $5.2 million (versus $1 million in Q4 2022 and $3.6 million in Q1 2022)

General Motors Company: $5.1 million (versus $1.8 million in Q4 2022 and $4.7 million in Q1 2022)

The Business Roundtable, Inc.: $4.8 million (versus $5.3 million in Q4 2022 and $4.8 million in Q1 2022)

America’s Health Insurance Plans, Inc. (AHIP): $4.7 million (versus $2.5 million in Q4 2022 and $4.7 million in Q1 2022)

Amazon.Com Services LLC: $4.6 million (versus $4.8 million in Q4 2022 and $5 million in Q1 2022)

Pfizer Inc.: $4.6 million (versus $3.1 million in Q4 2022 and $3.8 million in Q1 2022)

Meta Platforms, Inc. and various subsidiaries: $4.6 million (versus $3.7 million in Q4 2022 and $5.4 million in Q1 2022)

CTIA-The Wireless Association: $4.5 million (versus $4.5 million in Q4 2022 and $3.7 million in Q1 2022)

Northrop Grumman Corporation: $4.3 million (versus $2.1 million in Q4 2022 and $4.4 million in Q1 2022)

AARP: $3.9 million (versus $4.2 million in Q4 2022 and $3.5 million in Q1 2022)

Boeing Company: $3.8 million (versus $4 million in Q4 2022 and $2.7 million in Q1 2022)

UPS (United Parcel Service): $3.7 million (versus $1.4 million in Q4 2022 and $4.3 million in Q1 2022)

Edison Electric Institute: $3.6 million (versus $2 million in Q4 2022 and $2.8 million in Q1 2022)

Elevance Health, Inc.: $3.6 million (versus $1.3 million in Q4 2022 and $2.1million in Q1 2022)

 

BIGGEST CONTRACTS:

 

Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck: Johnson & Johnson Services, Inc. ($1.4 million)

Tributary LLP: HR Policy Association ($990,000)

Covington & Burling: Qualcomm Incorporated ($790,000)

Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld: Gila River Indian Community ($760,000)

Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld: Partnership to Address Global Emissions, Inc. ($640,000)

Ballard Partners: Renewable Energy Aggregators, Inc. ($630,000)

Squire Patton Boggs: Wau Holland Stiftung ($600,000)

Sidley Austin: Illumina, Inc. ($550,000)

Covington & Burling: Apple Inc. ($540,000)

Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer: Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) ($410,000)

 

What plutocracy?

Ancient Mariner

Odd-lot stuff

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֎ The use of extracted Phosphorus by humans is becoming a serious issue. Every living thing in nature uses Phosphorus to survive but it is in a chemically bound form that exists in nature. It is part of bones, part of plant material, part of rock, part of every known plant and animal.

As early as the 1600s humans learned to concentrate Phosphorus using various forms of composting. Today huge chemical factories extract Phosphorus so pure it bursts into flame if not kept under water. The Phosphorus is rebound with inert fillers which become the second number in garden fertilizers. Agriculture worldwide uses concentrated Phosphorus to grow more productive products. Unfortunately, farming is the source of major amounts of Phosphorus draining into bodies of water.

Nature is not used to having free Phosphorus any more than we are used to having free health care. Extracted, free-form Phosphorus is what causes algae bloom in water and was chemically severe enough to shut down public water drawn from the Great Lakes.

֎ From the other end of the climate change field, local fishing companies along the Atlantic Ocean are being threatened by wind towers. It seems private equity has invested in wind farms and has the money and political power to disregard concerns about local fishing industries. Wind tower property would be off limits to fishing.

֎ A new definition for ‘public health’: Federal Trade Commission announced that it had fined prescription discount site and telehealth provider GoodRx $1.5 million for sharing customer data with Google, Facebook and other firms, then in March hit online therapy provider BetterHelp with a $7.8 million levy for sharing customer data.

֎ Finally, why mariner knows Mother Earth will win the global warming war. From NPR:

“Red States Are Trying To Fight The World On Climate

By Maggie Koerth

State Rep. Jeff Hoverson didn’t want anyone getting in the way of using fossil fuels in North Dakota. Not the United Nations. Not international nonprofits. Certainly not the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. So he made a law to stop them. In March, the North Dakota legislature passed a bill that Hoverson co-authored with a state senator. It’s short, sweet and to the point: “A climate control-related regulation of an international organization, either directly through the organization or indirectly through law or regulation, is not enforceable on this state.”

Hoverson told me he isn’t sure what that will mean the next time the federal government wants to sign a climate treaty. Frankly, he’d prefer the feds not have that kind of power, anyway. But while his law stands out for the scope of its ambitions, it’s not exactly an outlier in its spirit. Across the country, bills pushing back against climate policy have been a trend this legislative session, with multiple states proposing — and passing — laws that would undermine efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions.”

Ancient Mariner

 

At the front edge

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In case you needed to know, an ant can live up to five years if lucky but the average life span is less than one month.

Recent subjects from the thinking class are that we are amid a protracted inversion of political parties where eventually republicans will endorse discretionary spending for health and other needs and the haughty, wealthy college graduates will become conservatives. This has happened twice in the history of the US but in today’s multitude of conflagrations, it is hard to find a stable place to stand from which to gain perspective.

In the past, legislative manipulation was used to protect special interests. Today, the government is a full-blown plutocracy where the special interests run the government. Another difference is the presence of social media, which can raise angry armies in a few days. The third difference is the international confusion; today, the oceans don’t help isolate the US politic – take Tik-Tok for example.

Interfering with the pace of political change is the current societal transition from the boomers through the retiring millennials to the zee generation.

It used to be a war was a war. Today, there are about 12 major independent wars happening at once and the US is involved in most of them.

As followers of the news know, each of the items listed above is disruptive to a united party, and the social issues of abortion, drugs and sexual variability haven’t been counted. Nor has the biggest player, planet Earth, been considered – we may not have the money for two different parties.

Another think-tank issue is that there is a good chance Florida and Louisiana will not be around in fifty years, nor the Caribbean islands. The scientific fact is that all the new water will move to the Equator more than it will to other parts of the planet. The Earth is a large spinning ball; water will be subject to centrifugal force, sending it to the farthest location from the center of the Earth – near the Equator.

Well, it’s Spring. Get the bike out and pedal around for a while. Gardens are starting to show a lot of color and the breeze is finally warm.

Ancient Mariner

Are humans and the biosphere still in the Pleistocene?

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Traces of Homo genes have been found that existed more than 600,000 years ago but the variation that represents the beginning of humans as we would define them today (Homo sapiens) appeared about 300,000 years ago.

Here is a picture of our Great Grandfather:

Homo heidelbergensis

 

 

 

300,000 years ago is before the Industrial Revolution. It is before the invention of the wheel. It is before the idea of government. It is before rafts. It is before American slavery. It is before George Washington. It is before Texas and New York. It is even so far back that Henry Louis Gates Junior can’t trace ancestors on his “Finding Your Roots” show.

The point is this: We are 99.9 percent the same creature that walked around buck naked in the Pleistocene. The .1 percent that continued to evolve was the ability to have abstract thoughts – thoughts and imaginings that weren’t real. To this day our limbic system is confused and can’t tell what is real. There is no physiological chemistry designed to respond to railroad trains.

How did Homo sapiens relate to the environment? It’s a difficult question to answer. For a long time, Pleistocene folks were classified as herbivores who survived primarily by eating roots and grasses that are still around today. However, recent discoveries at one site showed plenty of bones. Most of the animal bones came from gazelles. Among the other remains were hartebeests, wildebeests, zebras, buffalo, porcupines, hares, tortoises, freshwater mollusks, snakes and ostrich eggshells.

It is unlikely that early man kept gazelles and buffalo in body-sized cages as modern man does. Our ancestors had to chase them down. That is why the limbic system is confused by railroad trains. An interesting footnote to this paragraph is that only 20 percent of water-sourced food remains from averages posted just 50 years ago. Something is happening that is different from the last 300,000 years. Further, arable land is disappearing due to many things from population to industrial consumption to climate change.

Speaking of climate change, it is not coincidental that Homo sapiens has been able to populate the planet in the blink of an eye – given evolutionary timelines. Generally speaking, the planet has been tough on life since the beginning. Consider an ice age that lasted millions of years and in modern times can run 200,000 years without blinking an eye. Volcanic eruptions are another phenomenon that raises its disturbances every so many thousand years. But fortunately, scientists have noted a very still, cooperative and generous period for the last 300,000 years.

But now there is foreboding activity. It is true that modern Pleistocene man has trashed the climate, biosphere and has driven the animal kingdom to extinction – that’s the result of abstract thinking. But Homo is not the only driver of change. Most of the methane comes from deep in the Earth, from a time before rafts were invented. Further, volcanoes seemed disturbed by an unbalanced spinning of the Earth’s core. Scientists already have proven that the planet has entered a stage where the polarity will switch – something that happens over many years but can be disruptive. Will polar bears and penguins have to switch places?

Let’s not add any significance to Donald but doesn’t he look like an old Homo heidelbergensis? Then, so does mariner’s Great Aunt Denise.

Good Luck Zees!

Ancient Mariner

Your next book to read

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Several days ago mariner’s wife brought home a book from the library she thought might interest him. Like many in today’s world, he often feels reading is not part of the world of speed and instant opinion. Reading is ‘old fashioned’. Use Google instead; use twitter instead; use Wikipedia instead. Let FOX tell us, or maybe MSNBC.

Also like many, learning that the book had 353 pages and 50 more pages of reference and commentary, mariner let the book lay on the end table by his chair for a week. Finally, though, he had a pause one evening with nothing else to do so he began reading the book.

Wow. This book is to the troublesome times of the twenty-first century as the Holy Bible is to the first century. The author is amazingly apolitical in his presentation. In fact, it is written in a smooth readable style that will leave the reader with something to think about when the book is set aside.

The author, Philip Bump, has written a view of today’s world through the phenomenon of generational change. It a story of America reflecting the individual worlds that confronted the Boomers, (born 1946-54) then the Xers (1965-79), then the Millennials (1980-90s) and now the Gen Zs (1990s-2010s). As you read it, you easily will discover yourself among the descriptions of your generation.

Philip’s statistical analysis is broadly based and incorporates the work of other sociologists studying the world as we know it – and knew it. He offers no solace for us until the Boomers get out of the way. Unfortunately, about that time all the Millennials will retire, causing a serious rift in economics. The author puts a lot on the Gen Zs, who must invent a new and different future for America.

Reading the descriptions of the generations and their idiosyncrasies will entertain you and you can’t help saying, “Yes, that’s the way it was.” This is indeed a Bible for your bookshelf. No TV program can match it.

“The Aftermath – the Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future Power of America” by Philip Bump, Viking Press, ISBN 9780593489697.

Buy it. Then you will know why nothing makes sense.

Ancient Mariner