Oh my. The mariner weighed himself this morning. 222 pounds. He has been growing like a potato, perhaps with the potato’s help. Quickly he has moved from 198 pounds last autumn.

No guilt involved. The mariner, as many others may do, blames it on the frigid weather, the terrible winter just now showing signs of faltering. Further, the mariner has a troublesome back condition that hurts just enough to deter normal activity. However, winter is over, the garden is stirring and spring labor cannot be avoided.

The vegetable garden will be doubled in size this year plus a fence must be built around that garden to deny access to rabbits. Rabbits are the scourge of gardeners, especially in the mariner’s small town where there are no predators. He has encouraged bow hunters to kill a few. That has worked well but with minimum effect on the hoards of rabbits still prevailing. The garden walk must be paved. It has sat undone for two years.

So there is a plan afoot to lose weight. It involves more exercise despite his back’s complaint and it involves selecting a diet plan.

The mariner believes any diet plan requiring special ingredients or exercises he could not do when he was fifteen should be discarded.

Promoters selling “better” diet methods can claim better success by using a mathematical process known as base expectancy analysis (BEA). This is a large table of selected items that may affect other items in the table. A successful use of BEA tied mesothelioma to asbestos. Lung cancer and smoking were linked using BEA. Base expectancy analysis, believe it or not, is the same analytical model as Bingo. The players (experiment participants) are given a limited population ∑ (the cards) then random values (balls) are applied that are restricted to the values within ∑. Eventually, a truth table emerges (someone shouts “Bingo.”) Many games are played until a pattern of winners emerges. These winners have something special that enables them to win more than others. Their cards are examined to determine which sequence of balls was most productive. That sequence of balls is the new insight that provides for better living.

Have you noticed there is a new result from some study every month that seems contradictory to a former study? The diet promoters are playing Bingo. Someone else may win Bingo more times on Thursday than they did on Wednesday.

For those who want to know more about bingo, the formula is Σ x_iP(x_i).

Back to the weight issue, the mariner’s history of weight gain/loss may provide insight into how to lose weight. When the mariner retired at age 63, he weighed 249 pounds. His work environment contained many meetings with donuts, similar sweet products and many lunches, dinners and lounges that were not exactly crackers and skim milk.

Once retired, the mariner lost 25 pounds in six months. The secret is to have major surgery like a knee replacement, which puts you on drugs that suppress hunger as well as most other activities in life. Then the mariner went on a diet; it was the Atkins diet. This diet requires that one eat nothing but meat. The mariner lost steadily to 200 pounds at a rate of 2 pounds per week. Since then, his weight has bounced around this number plus or minus 5 pounds. Until the winter made him gain weight.

Last night on the Aljazeera channel, a Doctor reported that a study showed that saturated fat did not cause heart and cardiovascular disease. Based on this round of Bingo, I have decided to start Atkins again.

This does not mean that the seemingly more rational diets like vegan, supplement and enzyme diets do not work. People on these diets are quite thin. Anyone who has the willpower to eat less than they wish will be thin. Try the canned sardine diet. One can have one tin each for breakfast lunch and dinner. One is allowed one different vegetable at each meal – preferably to provide fiber. You will lose weight. We can go on and on about antioxidants and other chemical analyses but it boils down to less eating. Here’s another diet: eat a hard boiled egg for breakfast, a small bowl of mixed fruit for lunch, and for dinner, have ½ cup each of two vegetables and 4 ounces of meat. Snacking is cheating. That should work. The point is we can invent endless diets if we had the time and desire to do so.

So the mariner has settled on Atkins until 190 is reached. Atkins worked before; it should work again. After all, the Doctor on Aljazeera said it was okay.

No one mentions that a sustained diet only of meat will not only lose weight, one will also lose a liver. Well, last time the mariner lost a knee. I guess losing something other than weight is part of the diet.

Ancient Mariner