Marching on to Meta

GPT-3, is an AI program, can write essays, op-eds, tweets, and dad jokes. It will change how we think about creativity. Who is “we”? Doesn’t Alexi deal with this kind of stuff? Leave me alone so I can get back to my opiates.

There is an unreconciled circumstance when AI becomes judge and jury in our society: prejudice. Not necessarily the headline gathering prejudices like racism and misogyny but prejudices we don’t know we have. For example, app programmers working for financial firms may include biased code that is beneficial to finance firms just as a matter of business rather than allowing a fair integration with societal mores.

Several studies already are in that show existing government programs arrive at different decisions based on assets, neighborhoods and cultural differences. To wit: roads and the Interstate system always have chosen less expensive neighborhoods to build the highways. Government policies also are prejudiced by NIMBY politics (Not In My Backyard). And finally, urban development regulations allow venture capitalists to buy up inexpensive land inhabited for many generations by unique subcultures.

How will AI make sensitive, on-the-edge decisions? Mariner spent enough years in the automated data world to know that more than enough data will be available; it’s the analog formulas where the rubber meets the road.

Today, cultural change is in the hands of the owners – the citizens. As everyone has learned, change is nasty, confusing and final expectations are unknown. Computerized data, no matter how hard it tries, cannot emulate values in a topsy-turvy world – unless humans surrender reality to the Matrix.

Ancient Mariner

The art of subconscious reasoning

Mariner has a pet phrase he often uses in the humid summers of Iowa: “I’m sweating like a fish!” On rare occasions a listener may come back with “Fish don’t sweat!”

“Of course they do” he responds, “where do you think the oceans came from?” As the listener pauses in confusion, mariner continues his argument: “And now there’s global warming and the fish are sweating too much. That’s why the oceans are rising.”

It all makes sense, doesn’t it? No facts needed, no historical dependencies, no social accountability. Not only does it make sense, there is no blame to be assumed.

Lest the reader become ‘holier than thou’ everyone thinks this way to some degree or another. Subconscious reasoning is the source of prejudice of every kind, even simple opinions and is the cause of every abusive behavior.

There is skill involved, though. The more central to one’s life and anxieties, the more elaborate the narrative becomes – and more denial of reality. This is how an attractive young lady can be a Trumpist. When given Donald’s illegal and immoral behaviors by a journalist, she is able to say, “I don’t care.”

Because internal, often unknown thoughts frequently are promoted by the cerebellum, the brain becomes very obedient to its opinions because the cerebellum’s job is to survive. Survival is important internally, of course, but externally as well when social integration or other threats occur – hence subconscious reasoning.

Perhaps this explains the Supreme Court’s reasoning.

Ancient Mariner

 

Goliath

With all the social confusion, with the growing menace of global warming, with all the corruptness in politics, a giant walks among us: Goliath, AKA super large monopolistic corporations.

It isn’t just the communication sector (Big Data) with Google, Meta, Apple, Microsoft and a large number of software companies providing cloud and internet services. It is also the retail sector with super conglomerates like Amazon, Walmart, Costco and Walgreen.

Endless examples abound: show business has Disney, butchering has Tyson and Hormel; news has CBS and NBC.

Anti-trust laws have not been properly enforced for decades. Corporations buy potential competitors when those companies still are small. Marketing companies do the same thing in different retail markets.

There are two things to be concerned about. The first has been obvious for many years: monopolization diminishes competition thereby controlling market prices and availability of alternatives.

The second is a new issue available since the internet was invented: government policy intervention. For example, does anyone know who will set health policy when Amazon owns one of the largest hospital corporations in the US? How about a wanky space engineer owning Twitter – one of the most used communication channels in the country. Who will set regulations? Zuckerberg already has proven that if a corporation is large enough, the government has a hard time getting its arms around it.

One could almost say “Huge monopolies are like city or county governments.” Counterarguments may claim that global supply chains require large monopolies; not true (what happened during the pandemic when too few manufacturers caused failure?) Another counterargument is the international nature of business today; not true (The EU has imposed $million+ fines for not complying with privacy and false information regulations and impeding free trade.)

Whenever the US government can get its act together, two things will make or break the nation: fix taxes and break up monopolies. It can be done. Remember Ma Bell and Standard Oil?

Ancient Mariner

Political Sociology in action

It was mentioned on the blog some weeks ago that the time was coming when the retirement age would be extended as the population grew smaller and older. The pandemic has forced this idea into the political world today. Recently, Senator Ron Johnson (Trumpist republican) proposed putting seniors back to work – after they already had retired and started claiming Social Security benefits. Senator Ron’s motivation is suspicious; perhaps he found a new way to cut the cost of Social Security benefits simply by ignoring that it exists and ignoring the earned right to be on Social Security – or maybe civil rights are subservient to authoritative mandates.

Once a predator has been turned loose, it is difficult to put it back on the leash. This is the case between capitalism and socialism as resources become scarce, human environmental relationships begin to fail and plutocratic/authoritative defense mechanisms turn increasingly predatory. This battle will take decades to restore balance to society.

Recent history has shown that less sophisticated nations easily fall prey to authoritative leadership. Is the United States capable of putting the leash on prowling predators?

Who are economic predators? “everybody’s on their own” capitalists, a number of hoarding types like monopolistic corporations, venture capitalists and private equity types; also antidemocratic and libertarian types.

In the end, the outcome will be based on who controls the military and whether a legitimate, operational constitution holds together. Remember when Donald tried to call out the US military to quash Black Lives Matter and ‘de-fund the police’ protests?

Our personal liberties and democratic government lie within the realm of an arbitrary future. Perhaps we should win a big lottery just in case.

Ancient Mariner

 

Is there a shift in the wind?

֎ It seems that the latest polls – and a few primaries – suggest that the democrats may be more successful in November than was imagined just sixty days ago. Don’t bet money yet but the election may be more interesting than expected.

One situation that is giving democrats a larger than expected victory is rank voting. In Alaska especially, Donald-backed Sarah Palin did not survive to run in November.

If you aren’t sure what rank voting is, mariner posted a detailed explanation back on April 22 called ‘Rank Voting – 2’. Type the title in the search box on the Home page.

A lot hangs on whether the economy is decent until November. Any disruptions will have an effect on a cautious electorate. Otherwise, the polls suggest that an unusually large number of independents and young voters prefer the democratic side.

It is obvious that the abortion issue has stirred dust as far as voters are concerned but Donald himself is having difficulty with his appointed preferences in tossup states.

֎ Another issue that is growing rapidly is climate change happening across the US west. Small towns already have rationed use of water; some literally have so little water they depend on government and charitable organizations for water.

On the other side of the crisis, Mississippi and several other southern states are suffering from record breaking floods. A skeptic could poo-poo the shifts in weather as just an unusual year except that the entire world is having a weather related crisis. For the moment, Pakistan has the worst case. The nation’s economy and human wellbeing have been stopped dead as mountain glaciers melt so rapidly the lower rivers can’t handle the flood.

Let’s hope Mother Earth holds off on more tragedy until after the election; sooner or later the US economy will have to accommodate a growing cost caused by a warming planet.

֎ Does the reader have a pseudonym? Mariner’s is pink dot.

Ancient Mariner

Connect the dots

֎ Mariner was up early this morning. As usual, first get a coffee then turn on the computer. His standard procedure is to go to NOAA to check the weather, then to the blog, then open email.

Before mariner got past the weather check, Googlesyndication had made 138 attempts to enter his computer system. Fortunately, he has software that blocks this kind of silent intrusion.

֎ Mariner read the commentary of a Big Data executive who said, “Our future in the metaverse is to be a dot similar to the dots in a George Seurat painting.” The inherent value will not be in any one dot; one will have to step back to view the entire collection of dots.

Things like individualism, one person-one vote and personal choice in life no longer will exist. Instead, the entrapment of becoming a pink dot whether or not one prefers pink will be the extent of individualism.

֎The Trumpian movement occurs because the labor class in the United States for decades has been discounted as an unsuccessful class because they are not white collar; their salaries have fallen in value because of inflation versus employer disregard for economic well being; they carry no respect in the gestalt of US culture; their voice through unions was systematically eliminated. Now to be a dot . . . 29 percent of US citizenry believe it is somewhat likely that within ten years there will be a civil war.

The situation is made more complex because of a dysfunctional Congress. We can blame Newt Gingrich for that dysfunction. During his tenure as Speaker of the House of Representatives (1995-1999), he weaponized party politics; the opportunity for Bob Dole and Ted Kennedy to cut a deal could no longer happen.

In Congress, party dominance became Job One; citizens weren’t on the job list. Campaign fundraising became the influence on policy. When Al Franken resigned, he said he spent five hours a day making calls to raise campaign funds. Today, Mitch McConnell carries the torch but isn’t the leader of the party. The party stands armed and ready under the Trumpian flag.

So, reader, will there be a civil war? Who cares if one is just a statistical dot?

– – – –

On the good side of things, unions may be coming back. Gallup news reports that public approval is rising and is at its highest since 1965 (71 percent). Mariner’s brother is a union advocate. He reports that many trade companies are voluntarily coming to unions to have access to workers. Obviously the economic effects of the pandemic have messed up employment enough that unions are the only dependable source to find workers.

Ancient Mariner

5G and Me

This post is written by a professional, published writer – mariner’s wife. The post is a true tale. Enjoy the quality.

– – – –

Where to begin?  I suppose I should begin with the letter I got from Verizon stating that due to new 5G technology that would be sweeping the nation, my old flip phone would not work after December 31st, 2022.  It behooved me to get a new cell phone that would be able to keep up with the pace of technology or I would be left stranded in the 21st century.  Or more accurately I would be stranded  in the 20th century– that ancient time when phones were plugged into the wall and phone booths  were on every other corner.

I don’t remember any problems with phones in the 20th century.  You either had one or you didn’t.   If it didn’t work Ma Bell would replace it.  Long distance calls were expensive, but that didn’t matter because you didn’t make them except for emergencies.  It was an easier time to live, but we didn’t know that then.

I was in no hurry to replace my phone, because I was on the fence about getting a smart phone since I had to upgrade anyway.  My husband, on the other hand, knew that he did not want a smart phone, and his old flip phone had died.  So together we went to the Verizon store to see what his options were.  They were two:  an $80 flip phone, or a rugged, heavy duty $260 flip phone.  He chose the $80 model.  I asked if this would affect our Verizon plan.  “No.”  The phone will be $80 and nothing else will change?  “That is correct, nothing else will change.”   Will we be charged a set up fee?  “We do not charge a set up fee, but Verizon charges $35 which will be a one time fee on your next bill.”   This seemed to be a straightforward transaction but it took some time to complete because my husband had 260 contacts on his old phone.  He paid the $80 and I signed the receipt as the Verizon bill was in my name.  I did not read the fine print.  I don’t think there was any fine print.

We were pleased with the service and the new phone.  However, the next day–the very next day–the phone did not work.  The screen was white.  I googled ‘white screen’ to see if we could troubleshoot the phone and what came up was “White Screen of Death.”   That did not sound promising.   Then we got an email from Verizon.  “Thank you for your recent order.  Here is your receipt.”  On the receipt I saw that we had paid $70 for the phone and were financing the final $10 at .23 cents a month for 36 months.   In addition there was a $14.99 a month charge for phone protection.   Phone protection?  At that price for a phone that was only $80 to replace?  It sounded like mafia protection to me.  Suddenly that pleasant straightforward transaction seemed kind of sleazy and we just wanted out of the deal.  Especially since the phone did not work.

I took the phone back to the store.  We wanted our money back.  We wanted the $14.99 a month removed from our bill.  All of that was fine with the store, but there would be a $35 restocking fee since it was our choice to return the phone.  “But it doesn’t work..”  Never mind about that, they would replace the phone for free, but if we wanted to return it, there was that restocking fee.  I decided it made more sense to get the new phone and hope it worked longer than one day.

They removed the $14.99 a month but when I got home with the new phone, Verizon thanked me again and $14.99 a month was on the new receipt.   What I don’t know is if Verizon will charge me for the set up fee twice–once for the phone that worked one day, and once for the new phone.  I called the store and asked to remove the new $14.99 a month protection and a possible second set up fee and of course they agreed to do that.  By the time I get the bill,  no one will remember any of this and Verizon probably hopes that it will just slip through the very deep cracks in my senior brain.

This should be the end of the story.  But there is a part two.  I called my friend, who I will call Mary to protect her identity, to talk about my frustration with Verizon.  She uses U.S. Cellular and had a similar experience of things being added to her bill, although in her case she knew what she was signing for.  There just seemed to be no end to the add on charges.

Her husband, however, had a tracfone and he had just bought $100 worth of new minutes–only to find out through me that 3G technology would not work after the end of 2022.  He called tracfone and they sent him a new 4G tracfone for FREE.  However, the new phone would not accept the minutes he had just bought.   So now he had two phones and 100 minutes that he could not use.  He could not go to the tracfone store because there wasn’t one.  The only customer service was online or by phone and he couldn’t get through for two days.

The next time I heard from Mary it was with this email:

“So now we have two phones, the old 3G and the new 4G, both with the SAME phone number and both with the SAME tracfone minutes!  Verizon service can’t decide which one to make a call or receive calls from.  Sometimes one rings or answers and sometimes the other.  Or nothing rings and the call goes to voice mail but you can answer during the voice mail and talk.  It is madness!!   He’s going to call tracfone again tomorrow but I say just forget them both and go to U.S. Cellular and get a new flip 4G with a NEW number.  I have a gun and I am ready to use it–twice!  Ha!”

I replied wishing her good luck, and as I sent my email–I got a pop up ad that took up the whole of my computer screen.  It was offering me a great deal on a new tracfone.

In the midst of all this, I haven’t even mentioned that we don’t get cell service in our house.  We have to go out on the porch to get or send calls.   Verizon’s nationwide service does not cover our living room,  but due to supply chain issues in the cellphone industry and rising costs due to inflation, our bill will be going up $12.99 a month starting in October, even without a protection plan.

I have decided to wait as long as I can before replacing my old 3G flip phone.  When the time comes that I have to hang up my old phone, I plan to get another plain black flip phone that will take me into the future as far as I can see.   I have decided not to get a smart phone.  They are too smart for me.

I am beginning to miss those phone booths on every other corner.

– – – –

Mariner here again. Did you notice that she received an ad for a tracfone – a term she had used only in her email? Mind your private affairs, readers; a bunch of folks are eavesdropping your email.

Ancient Mariner

A conundrum

Mariner was a preacher for a while. He became familiar with the Christian faith generally and with Christ’s exhortations to love others before self. In college he had a minor in religion and studied several religions. Not one religion, especially Islam, ever took the ‘love’ thing seriously.

For centuries Christianity, Buddhism and Hinduism were more closely related to the role of a Supreme Court and supported the political power base. Islam had a similar role but promoted a more punitive role as a requirement for inclusion. These are generalizations, of course, but generally the role of religion has more often been concerned about politics and self-aggrandizement than the pursuit of salvation.

It seems today that this political role has returned. In the United States particularly, hate is preached from the chancel. Deliberate political enmity and even violence are supported.

Is religion a change agent? Does religion have a ‘divine’ right to promote pain, suffering and death in the name of God and Jesus Christ? It is a conundrum.

Whenever religion takes up political reform, it is rebellious; advocates are looking for revenge, not love. Whenever religion focuses on profitability, it disregards the need for love and replaces it with dollars. With all the confusion in today’s world of humans, it is hard to find positive spiritual anchors – especially in churches.

What happened to the words of Jesus? Does religion suffer from the same forces that shape society? If so, what purpose is religion? In a time when unity, love of fellow man, sharing and compassion are in critical demand, where is the moral authority of religion?

Some of this confusion can be laid at the footsteps of the Founding Fathers. They wanted to be sure that the Church would never play an official role as a ‘state religion.’ In effect, however, making religion an independent and protected role in society, religion could do whatever it wanted in spite of democratic legislation.

So, the question remains, how can religion help? How can it advocate love of others? If religion doesn’t uphold Christ’s principles, who needs religion – unless it is a political voice instead of a religious voice?

Ancient Mariner

 

Mother Earth is calling in the big gun

Has the reader ever heard of CMEs? CME stands for Coronal Mass Ejections. This is an event that occurs on the Sun. Most folks are familiar with sunspots as a phenomenon. Sorry to mix metaphors but sunspots are like big blisters that eventually pop and spray massive amounts of energy. Each sunspot is larger than planet Earth and can be as big as Jupiter.

When a sunspot bursts, the radiation escapes the Sun’s gravity and travels across the Solar System. The reader may recall a small CME disturbance last March when the northern skies were alive with an impressive display of Aurora Borealis; the display was caused by a CME that had minor interference with Earth’s magnetosphere – although southern Africa did have a momentary blackout of its electric utility grid.

Statistically speaking, a major hit by a CME occurs every 150 years or so. The last one occurred 150 years ago . . . The only electric grid back then was the telegraph. It took a few weeks to repair the grid.

Today, the entire world is wrapped in electrical grids. Consider local utility grids, corporate network grids, telephone grids, satellite grids and Internet grids. Where it took only weeks to restore the old telegraph grid, it may take several months to repair today’s grid laden world.

This statistic has not gone unnoticed by Mother Earth so add CME to climate change.

Have a fun Labor Day!

Ancient Mariner

The new law firm takes over

In a recent post, mariner used a metaphor suggesting that Mother Nature was taking over the issue of disarray in the human world. Here is an example of Mother Nature taking charge of economy, agriculture and civilian priorities:

AXIOS – “The heat wave roasting China is setting records for its reach, with an area equivalent to California, Texas and Colorado experiencing high temperatures exceeding 104°F.

Why it matters: At 71 straight days, the heat wave and drought have no parallel in modern record-keeping in China or around the world, Axios Generate co-author Andrew Freedman reports.

More than 260 weather stations saw their highest-ever temperatures during the long-running heat wave, according to state media reports.

The severe drought has throttled back China’s hydropower production, leading the government to cut power to key industrial hubs.”

So it isn’t only Europe, the United States and the Middle East having their toes put to the fire, it includes China and Southern Asian nations as well. The use of heat, storms, flooding, shifting weather patterns and drought are Mother Earth’s legal documents ordering humans to cease and desist. Fresh water is increasingly scarce; worldwide, industry and agriculture are suffering economically.

We have only begun to see disruptions to housing markets and other fiscal practices. It won’t be long before nations of the world have to stop profiteering and fighting wars in order to commit resources to Mother Nature’s style of reform.

Ancient Mariner