The Presidential debate is a day or two away (Monday Sept 26). The mariner offers a last look at the vector analysis he and readers have been using to determine which candidate is ahead instead of the ruckus media news presents with every word spoken by the candidates – a boring and indecisive and unfair analysis. A second vector analysis will be posted after the debate once the first round of polls and other measurements are published.
538.com (Nate Silver) – Today, as of 1:10pm, the betting odds are Hillary over Donald 59.5% to 40.5% – trending toward Donald. The popular vote, an assimilation of hundreds of polls and forecasts, has Hillary ahead 46.6% to 44.2% for Donald.
Electoral Vote – The latest analysis of the fifty states shows Hillary ahead of Donald 288.8 to 248 (270 to win). Donald still has two reasonable combinations to reach 270 even but it requires every small state, even Maine’s 1 vote plus Donald must win Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Colorado.
Battleground States – measure is points in polls.
Arizona – Donald +1
Colorado – Hillary +9
Florida – Tied
Georgia – Tied
Iowa – Tied
Michigan – Hillary +6
Missouri – Donald +3 but trending weak
New Hampshire – Hillary +5 but trending weak
Nevada – Tied
North Carolina – Hillary +1 but trending weak
Ohio – Donald +1 but trending weak
Pennsylvania – Hillary +6
Virginia – Hillary +4
Wisconsin – Hillary +5
Down Ballot Races – Sources suggest the House will remain in Republican hands. However the race to control the Senate is hot: The democrats are favored to take control 59% to 41%.
Local Paper and Magazines – reader’s choice. The mariner strongly recommends Atlantic Magazine which did an extraordinary job of covering the debate from every angle. Atlantic gives significant weight to the manner in which voters prefer one candidate over the other and style/personality is important:
“The most accurate way to predict reaction to a debate is to watch it with the sound off”
“Trump speaks at a fourth grade reading level. In political language, plainness is powerful.”
“How best to prepare for debating Trump? I’d start by thinking of him as a monkey with a machine gun.”
One section of the Atlantic coverage alluded to Donald’s prominent intention: emasculate the opponent. Remember Donald’s nicknames for his Republican opponents, e.g. Little Marco? It was important to belittle them; winning on policy was never the issue. How will Donald fare against a feisty woman?
Atlantic Magazine covers all the issues – even the intellectual ones. Check it out at
Have Fun.
Ancient Mariner