Wilderness in the back yard

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Mariner and his wife maintain bird feeders during the winter months. It is often that there are 50 to 100 small sparrows, juncos, goldfinches, house wrens, woodpeckers, and cardinals, et al, sitting on the feeders, back deck and on the ground under the feeders; those in waiting cover the branches of the fruit trees. Also in attendance are several squirrels, a feral black cat, chipmunks and mice, and at twilight, a rabbit or two.

Mariner has mentioned in past posts that his yard is surrounded by back yards converted to trucking depots with 3-car garages, RVs and concrete pads large enough to land a helicopter. So mariner’s yard, while not a picturesque British garden, is a small spot of wilderness.

Having just refreshed the feeders yesterday, mariner expected the usual crowd of wildlife. But the yard was silent. The yard was still. Not a bird even in the fruit trees.

Around 10:00 AM mariner spotted the cause: a Swainson’s hawk sitting comfortably on the edge of the flower garden. It is a sheltered spot with full Sun. The hawk was cleaning itself and seemingly just passing the time. It sat there until half past Noon. It was the only creature in the yard.

As this post is written, the squirrels have returned. Still no birds.

Nature is tough.

Ancient Mariner

Take me out to the ballgame

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It’s those damned smartphones again! It seems no one has time to watch a full sporting event. Full length television of football, baseball, soccer, tennis and other major events is disappearing. Instead, viewers check out Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and Snapchat. Even the Super Bowl is at risk.

It may be hard to reconstruct for the busy young streamers but there was a time when the event, the getting together with family and friends, the actual driving, parking, ticket purchase, hot dogs and time spent cheering, booing and doing the wave was as important as the game – the entire, three-hour game! When the game was away, television was a true blessing; folks still gathered in homes, pubs and sports restaurants to watch the entire game.

This is a simple and clear example of the deep human price our culture is paying as it moves to an age born in the computer cloud.

Other acts of sports participation have disappeared. For example, most neighborhoods participated in adult softball leagues. The extracurricular activities were just as important as the games themselves. Sports used to be one of the major socialization events that mixed people together to form common ground, which fostered togetherness and acceptance of one another. Despite the rivalry and the boisterousness, common courtesy was practiced.

Time was, every neighborhood had a card club for poker, bridge and mah-jongg. The point is this: It is obvious today that serious activity in politics, business ethics, and international relations all are a bit stiff and awkward. It is difficult to behave within a sociable base of communication. Homo sapiens is a herd creature. Without a practiced herd behavior, we may as well be possums – just as long as we have our surreal smartphone.

Ancient Mariner

Report on Inflation

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Below mariner has composed fiscal details from several sources. Inflation is like riding a roller coaster where a person is rolling uphill if they are lucky and at the same time rolling downhill if a person is not lucky. Mariner remembers during the 17% inflation in the seventies that ambitious people would buy and sell their homes every six months, ending up with million dollar homes. On the downhill roll, the purchasing power of family income drops quickly in value.

֎ Consumer prices rose 7.5% over the last year, the highest since February 1982.

֎ Some of the steepest price rises in January were in energy – a 9.5% rise in the price of fuel oil and 4.2% rise in electricity costs.

֎ Prices rose for apparel (1.1%), car insurance (0.9%), and restaurant meals (0.7%).

֎ Rents continued pushing upward (0.5% for rental properties which in effect creates a floor to keep inflation from easing.

֎Prices for used cars and trucks were up 40% in January, compared to the prior year.

Wages are not keeping up. Average hourly earnings rose an impressive 5.7% over the 12 months ended in January — but that is a lot less impressive when considering that consumer prices rose 7.5%.

The effect of the Infrastructure Bill that Congress finally sent to the President for signature will represent the first raise for labor in many years – not due so much to the empathy of politicians but because of a labor shortage as the nation’s infrastructure gets a thorough overhaul. Hiding around the corner is the looming impact of climate change and global warming. The further destruction caused by climate change plus the need for even more workers, will keep inflation moving.[1]

Finally, the shortage of homes and, in particular, low income housing, will drive home purchase prices well above the inflation rate.

By no stretch is mariner a financial advisor. He is concerned, however, that individuals who have most of their savings in banks may be discouraged at the lag of interest income behind inflation. Today, a typical savings account pays .0005% in interest income. As of the writing of this post, inflation is just warming up at .07%. The S&P 500 product, mostly a bond market, may offer slightly better interest for the average investor. Definitely visit a financial advisor for advice.

– – – –

Readers should take note of a significant bill that left Congress for the President’s signature: Ending Forced Arbitration of Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment Act. One of the reasons many sexual assaults never made it to the press or courts was the practice of settling out of sight. Called ‘forced arbitration’, employees were forced to enter ‘the secret room’ where settlements were arranged out of sight, non-disclosure agreements were signed and court actions were avoided.

Ancient Mariner

[1] Browse broadcasting websites to find two or three documentaries about a disappearing Miami. Besides daily high tide flooding, venture capitalists are buying up higher elevation, cheap properties (AKA low income housing) and leaving the destitute homeless.

Memory

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Memory is a strange phenomenon. The subconscious wreaks havoc with our memories if only to justify our idiosyncrasies. We can remember a brief instant deep in our past for no reason except that, for some reason, the brain bookmarked it. Age begins to wear on memories; if it hasn’t been important for a while, the brain tosses it out. At the end the brain trashes functional memory but keeps fantasized and mindless habits.

An old codger, mariner’s brain has started tossing things; mostly names of people and nouns. It has come to the point that mariner often fails in the telling of a joke because the brain doesn’t share the key word in the punchline. Short memory is a turkey shoot. Mariner can know the word he wants to use and three seconds later it no longer exists – only to return ten minutes later.

But what is lost in the tossing is huge chunks of our lives. Mariner’s wife will say “Do you remember when we visited so-and-so in Nashville and had to take a train because the highways were closed?” To which mariner replies, “We’ve never been to Nashville. Who is so-and-so?” Who among us watches television and sees dozens of faces vaguely recognized but why and when are they familiar has been tossed?

Mariner raises this issue because of a phenomenon most have experienced. Like most of us, mariner has a collection of songs from his youthful days. A few years ago mariner compiled his favorites into a list called simply, GOAT. There are over ninety songs from every venue, era, concert, pop, classic, jitterbug, Broadway and every type of troubadour. Mariner plays GOAT every once in a while when he is preoccupied with office work or other quiet activities.

HE SINGS ALONG KNOWING EVERY WORD OF EVERY SONG, EVERY CHORD SHIFT, EVERY SYNCOPATION, EVERY STYLE AND EVERY VOICE. HE HAS ALL THE IMAGES OF THE ENTERTAINERS SINGING THE SONG.

Mariner is an idiot savant.

Ancient Mariner

The National Citizen Shut-ins

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The politicians and medical experts talk of ‘lockdown’ and ‘job disruption’ and ‘inflation/recession’ (depending on who is talking).  As a participant in these odd times, mariner feels more like a shut-in. Perhaps many who are not working at the moment, who are forced indoors not only by harsh weather but by the influence of online dependence – not having to leave the home to shop, be entertained (sort of), eliminating many opportunities to at least talk even to a McDonald’s clerk, church services, storefront shopping, movies (are they gone forever?), short trips just for the experience and restaurants.

Mariner has friends who live in isolation in their homes, who live in the existential vacuum of a retirement home, assisted living or hospice care. In this national environment, however, millions are trapped by a disruption in their lives for one reason or another; the home if they can keep it is, comparatively speaking, little more than a caveman’s home. Many of us are shut-ins.

Being a shut-in means there is a lot of idle time in a day. One may be frustrated by being trapped with children but at least there is human interaction and accountability, albeit often burdensome. As time goes by, idleness breeds dissatisfaction with one’s circumstances, eventually leading to depression and frustration. One suffers with thoughts of failure and incompetence. Eventually a bottom is reached where nothing is interesting, nothing has value, and reality slowly loses its presence.

Don’t expect the government to deal with this nor the expensive health industry. Each of us must climb out of the well on our own accord.

Mariner draws from several sources some suggestions to regain control of one’s normal ego:

Upgrade your sense of obligation to improve your environment. You don’t ordinarily scrub the toilet bowl each week but make that a conscious responsibility – and the myriad of other low-interest tasks required to manage a home.

Within your skills, repair everything and anything you have ignored under normal circumstances – repaint the living room? God forbid the overhead and inconvenience – from what?

Make a conscious effort to visit other people – family, friends, charitable events where you can help.

If you are fortunate to have an active hobby, step it up a bit and take on a challenging project.

Haven’t played your musical instrument for a while? Now is the time!

Create a family tournament with any number of games like scrabble, Life or cornhole.

Stop by a store that has potted plants for sale; create a miniature garden spot in the home.

Does the reader get the drift? Invent situations that require accountability and sustained responsibility.

These times are tough across the board. There is no aspect of normalcy that is unaffected. A self-defense strategy is necessary.

Spring is coming.

Ancient Mariner

Mariner’s Fantasy

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It is interesting that no one in the organized world knew there was a North and South America. Then suddenly, in the blink of an eye, both were discovered by a western world of Christian white people. Their new toy of land riches, etc., was taken from the natives with brutal force, genocide, property theft and a prejudice against the color of the indigenous peoples – what is called today Eskimo, Native American, Latino, brown, Mexican, Puerto Rican and South American. A prejudice that remains strong today.

So much for Christian doctrine.

Leaping forward over centuries, South America still remains a second class continent. China is dabbling in debt-sensitive trade with several South American dictatorships that are struggling but China’s motives are to control the economy and resources without regard for the national interests of these nations. Oil, reversed growing seasons and lumber, along with some important minerals, have kept South America civilized but the Northern Hemisphere remains the center of power and commerce in 2022.

The enemy of progress for both continents is racial prejudice. The embers of those violent years of discovery remain smoking today. That prejudice is still held by that same race of Christians that stole their world from them. Talk about the need for reparation!

In today’s world, the Northern Hemisphere is old and frazzled. New technology has made traditional politics irrelevant. Over the centuries the Northern Hemisphere has consumed its resources to the point that capitalist nations are socially stressed and authoritarian nations are failing except for the oligarchy.

Before it is too late, mariner’s fantasy must begin. Imagine the power of a United Continents of America. Imagine an economy that stretches from Wainwright on the Arctic Sea to Tierra del Fuego on the Drake Passage; an economy using the same currency and modern trading concepts that unify nations as partners and not as competitors.

Instead of immigration brutality at our border, pay the tickets for the brown people to go back to their country and help them establish a shared economy that will eliminate massive immigration in the first place.

Mariner fantasizes.

Ancient Mariner

China is an Enigma

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Vaguely, mariner remembers a children’s story about an ogre that was so big no matter what he did, it caused a disaster. A sneeze would wipe out several homes; a snore would have the effect of an earthquake, etc. So it is with China.

China has the national size to pursue Uighur-Muslim genocide in the southwest, nation killing in Hong Kong, worldwide espionage on the internet and bullying the South Pacific in the southeast. China’s strategy in world trade is similar to US private equity – outright ownership.

Nevertheless, China has its own interior issues just like the United States. Its population is restless; there are severe labor shortages; the political oppression of Peng Shuai (tennis) hints at unstable human rights management. So it may be interesting to get democratic boogeyman George Soros’ opinion on China:

— SOROS BETS ON XI’S UNRAVELING: Billionaire investor and philanthropist GEORGE SOROS said in a speech Monday at the Hoover Institution that Chinese Xi is threatened by internal dissent. Soros said that’s fueled by financial system stresses, demographic challenges and the mounting social and economic costs of Xi’s “zero-Covid strategy.” “Xi Jinping has many enemies … [and] there is a fight brewing within the CCP,” Soros said.

Still, a hiccup in China is similar to an eruption of the Tonga volcano.

The reason that China has any offense at all on the world stage is because Xi Jingpin doesn’t have a nationally elected Congress; he has an obedient, internally selected national congress.

Mariner’s perception of good or bad relations with China is that China is that storybook large ogre where anything is capable of global disruption.

A new twist is the mutual crying shoulder relationship between Russia and China over the West – especially the United States. Both nations have identical confrontations with the West: Ukraine, Taiwan, trade balances, embargos and global leadership competition; not to mention the competition for communication dominance. What should concern the west is the lack of government elasticity in authoritarian nations. Like bullies, tension has a break point driven by just a very few individuals, e.g., Donald. Subtlety is not available; fair is not a win.

Ancient Mariner

Unsettling Times

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Mariner has nagged about the decline of government, economics and society for 23 straight months, not counting other ideological issues and the always inadequate electorate. But in the last six months, setting Covid aside for the moment, the nation’s core stability is increasingly stressed. The U.S. is faced with fragile situations by Russia wanting Ukraine and China wanting Taiwan. Still the U.S. struggles with deepening populism and citizen violence.

There is a good chance Congress will fall to an oddly deranged republican party which will not be able to hold together a deepening distrust by the nation’s citizenry. Note the following chart from Gallup, an annual exercise reflecting citizen satisfaction:

Most of the satisfaction scores don’t represent a trend – it’s more like driving over a cliff.

Things seem not to be finding their way out of the maze yet.

Ancient Mariner

Where’s the spine?

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All around the nation educationists are increasingly concerned about the vulnerability of children and teenagers to illicit information and conspiracy theories, especially on the internet and social media. Already we have seen the disruption conspiracy theory can cause in grown adults especially when leaders like a recent President and extreme left and right organizations play professional dodgeball with the truth.

There are many websites and educational journals covering this subject. One that has a good synopsis is the article in Feb. 2022 Scientific American, ‘Schooled in Lies’. The article reflects the lack of experience and direction in education which would provide for children a defense against illicit information.

Mariner thinks the missing defense mechanism ‘against the Devil’s work’ – just to greatly simplify it – is the disappearance of Sunday School. Public education systems are not the source that teaches ‘goodness’ and ‘ethics’ and faith through a graceful life. On the other hand, all religions deliver what mariner calls a spiritual/moral spine with which to interpret life’s road.

Classical religion is caught in a bind where modern society cannot relate to the myths recorded as far back as 6000 BC – myths that compensated for the limitations of primitive language and unknown science. On the other hand, it is the strength of religion that a universal value system, founded in a series of unchangeable truths, promotes a positive existentialism that protects against whimsical and immoral behavior.

Is this a new mission for religion? How would churches reverse the drain away from structured ideology? Mariner is of the opinion that founders like Jesus and Buddha may not have been successful if everyone had had smartphones and the Internet. The United States has spent centuries avoiding a theocracy; the battle between church and state is all about unchanging doctrine versus free will of the citizens.

So, let’s add yet another conundrum to the list of massive shifts occurring at this moment. How will capitalism, socialism, free will, artificial intelligence and now religion, come together?

Ancient Mariner

Have we noticed legislators don’t listen to us?

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As the gap between the well-to-do and the lower income groups widens ever more rapidly, a citizen might wonder why legislators aren’t aware of the strain the gap causes. One could look at the effect Putin and his oligarchy has on the Russian economy: thin support for the quality of life and constant dissatisfaction from the citizenry.

But wait. Isn’t the US a democracy? Can’t options like referendums or voting correct the national path? Actually, the situation isn’t caused by selfish dictators, it’s caused by plutocracy. Our legislator’s overhead for reelection and other benefits have become extremely expensive; over the last three decades or so, legislator overhead has grown much faster than the rate of inflation. To keep ahead, the legislators follow the money. One blatant example is Donald who has a lock on the cost of Republican primaries, forcing members who want to remain in office to kowtow to Donald’s wishes.

But Donald is just one player in the money-for-policy game. Collectively they are called the ‘K Street’ players – the professional lobbyists representing special interests. Check out the report below.

Published by Politico, here is the Lobbying Disclosure Act revenue rankings for 2021.

TOP FIRMS:

Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck: $56.3 million (versus $49.3 million in 2020) and $16 million in Q4 2021 (versus $12.4 million in Q4 2020)

Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld: $53.4 million (versus $49.6 million in 2020) and $13.5 million in Q4 2021 (versus $12.3 million in Q4 2020)

BGR Group: $35.1 million (versus $31.9 million in 2020) and $9.2 million in Q4 2021 (versus $8.1 million in Q4 2020)

Holland & Knight: $34.9 million (versus $28.2 million in 2020) and $9.7 million in Q4 2021 (versus $7.4 million in Q4 2020)

Cornerstone Government Affairs: $34.6 million (versus $28.1 million in 2020) and $9.3 million in Q4 2021 (versus $7.6 million in Q4 2020)

Invariant: $31.2 million (versus $21.1 million in 2020) and $9.1 million in Q4 2021 (versus $5.7 million in Q4 2020)

Forbes Tate Partners: $25 million (versus $19.5 million in 2020) and $6.5 million in Q4 2021 (versus $5.1 million in Q4 2020)

Tiber Creek Group (previously Peck Madigan Jones): $24.6 million (versus $17.2 million in 2020) and $6.5 million in Q4 2021 (versus $4.5 million in Q4 2020)

Squire Patton Boggs: $24.4 million (versus $24.3 million in 2020) and $6.9 million in Q4 2021 (versus $5.1 million in Q4 2020)

Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas: $23.8 (versus $19.3 million in 2020) and $6.3 million in Q4 2021 (versus $5.1 million in Q4 2020)

Capitol Counsel: $21.9 million (versus $19.1 million million in 2020) and $6 million in Q4 2021 (versus $5.1 million in Q4 2020)

Crossroads Strategies: $21.7 million (versus $16.5 million in 2020) and $5.7 million in Q4 2021 (versus $4.6 million in Q4 2020)

K&L Gates: $21.2 million (versus $18.6 million in 2020) and $5.8 million in Q4 2021 (versus $4.2 million in Q4 2020)

Cassidy & Associates: $20.6 million (versus $16.9 million in 2020) and $5.5 million in Q4 2021 (versus $4.3 million in Q4 2020)

Van Scoyoc Associates: $19.5 million (versus $18.1 million in 2020) and $5.4 million in Q4 2021 (versus $5 million in Q4 2020)

Thorn Run Partners: $18.9 million (versus $14.2 million in 2020) and $5.1 million in Q4 2021 (versus $3.8 million in Q4 2020)

Ballard Partners: $18.6 million (versus $24.6 million in 2020) and $4.5 million in Q4 2021 (versus $6 million in Q4 2020)

Subject Matter: $18.2 million (versus $14.5 million in 2020) and $5 million in Q4 2021 (versus $3.8 million in Q4 2020)

Covington & Burling: $17.3 million (versus $16.4 million in 2020) and $3.7 million in Q4 2021 (versus $4 million in Q4 2020)

Tarplin, Downs & Young: $15.9 million (versus $12.2 million in 2020) and $3.7 million in Q4 2021 (versus $3.3 million in Q4 2020)

Sadly, money almost solely drives policy. The press covers the really big legislation but behind the scenes, a change in this regulation or a deletion of a small requirement never makes the news. These changes are bought by K Street, who doesn’t even have a vote. A good example is how hard it is to rewrite tax legislation – a simple intellectual issue that would have a profound effect on the world of money.

Of late, plutocracy has entered the health industry. Keep an eye on changes to your health insurance coverage. By the way, Xarelto, a common blood thinner costs $4.74 per tablet in Canada and $16.29 in the U.S. Why hasn’t the Congress dealt with this? Ask your local Pharma lobbyist.

Ancient Mariner