Christmas draws near

The weather is cold enough now to muster the red cheeks and nose required for the season. When mariner was growing up in Baltimore, his parents would take him to the downtown shopping district where there were a dozen large department stores with the store windows converted to animated Christmas displays. Outdoor speakers wafted Christmas carols on the streets. Shopping was a joyous hands-on experience – especially in the large toy departments which went all out for a Santa-centered carnival.

Mariner remembers the hands-on shopping of his parents, touching, holding up, and talking with the clerk. At the end of the day, we would pile onto the streetcar to head home with bags and bags of gifts but not before a hotdog and orange juice at Neddick’s.

In mariner’s household, decorating did not occur until mariner was asleep on Christmas Eve. On Christmas morning mariner awakened to a different home with a Christmas tree, every room with decorations and yes! Santa had come with presents.

In the afternoon aunts uncles and cousins would gather for a family Christmas. This tradition was passed around each year between four families; two aunts lived twenty miles south of Baltimore so we had to take a train to get there. What more excitement could there be? Another gathering was had at maternal grandma’s. As the New Year approached, the festivities shifted to friends and neighbors. The salubrious mood remained in high gear into January.

These were years that occurred during and immediately after the Second World War. Gifts weren’t extravagant; holiday food didn’t always look like the Saturday Evening Post magazine cover, a sumptuous Norman Rockwell interpretation of Christmas dinner. The impact of the war was far, far more devastating than Covid. Most everyday things like meat and gasoline were rationed, thereby limiting amounts and options. The supply chain during the war was focused entirely on military requirements. Automobiles weren’t made in those times, only tanks and airplanes. Air raid black outs were common.

Mariner remembers those times as intensely focused on people and human participation in every aspect of daily life. Without leaving the front door he remembers greeting the milkman, the breadman, the iceman, the paperboy, out the back in the alley, several produce hucksters replete with horse drawn wagons; he remembers running through the neighborhood with playmates. At the corner of his block there was a confectionery store with ice cream delights and candy of every description where once a week or so his family would walk up the block and have an ice cream cone.

It is true that our memories often remember just the good times and forget the bad. Certainly this is true for the war years. But there was restoration of life to be had if only by sharing daily life with other people whether working, dealing with the war or mingling with everyone in the retail sector. Churches then still were a center point for an orderly culture. Many families had basement parties for enlisted men who were in port.

It is different today. As fully united as American citizens were in supporting ‘the war’ with losses of loved ones, meager salaries and limited supplies, today the populism and rancor looms like a war on our own streets. Further, ordering online via Amazon or whoever has permanently diminished, if not eliminated, a cultural holiday high point in American society – storefront, hands-on shopping.

How can we celebrate a truly salubrious holiday today, Facebook – with Zoom?

Ancient Mariner

The Homo persona versus the AI world

This entire post intends deliberately to promote a new book: “The Age of AI and our Human Future” by Henry Kissinger, Eric Schmidt and Daniel Huttenlocher, published 2021 by Little, Brown and Company. ISBN 9780316273800.

Not that mariner is comfortable with every premise. Indeed, the book clarifies his own resistance to the impact of AI. Nevertheless, the book is written with rational insight and for the ease of an average reader; the language and grammar are helpful instead of being a confrontation.

The authors point out in clear terms that being a human will be different as AI takes over behaviors usually executed by human beings. One insightful example: It is quite likely that an AI program will choose whether you are hired for a job – no human intervention is necessary; perhaps a human robot may interview you. AI programs author public documents – no human intervention is necessary. Economic activities like engaging in the stock market, international trade agreements and salaries will be managed by AI – no human intervention is necessary.

Many of what today are called ‘labor jobs’ that require skills typical of the trades or white collar workers or many specialist jobs in public service and health will not be required. The new labor class will be technicians trained to work with AI. For the Homo species, the social and psychological changes in an individual’s sense of personal worth will be challenged.

The authors point to other significant changes to human worth in history when, for example, the weaving machine was invented which promulgated a national resistance movement called the Luddites; also, the printing press changed individual awareness and political acumen forever, allowing ideas like democracy to grow. But the great double-cross in mariner’s mind is captured on the back cover:

“Recently, a sophisticated language-generating AI named GPT-3 was asked philosophical questions. It replied in part:

Your question is ‘Does GPT-3 have a conscience or any sense of morality?’ No, I do not.

Your next question is ‘Is GPT-3 actually capable of independent thought?’ No, I am not. You may wonder why I give this conflicting answer. The reason is simple. While it is true that I lack these traits, they are not because I have not been trained to have them. Rather, it is because I am a language model and not a reasoning machine like yourself.

The gray line for mariner is, in fact, that AI has no soul. How does one provide insightful charity? How does one know when the exception proves the rule? How does an individual achieve the hero’s path in light of determinism? Further, mariner does not trust the three-way relationship between AI, government and private investment. How will our Congressmen manipulate campaign funds?

As Forrest Gump would say, “Amoral is as amoral does.” How a person may be treated or defined is driven by their table values in massive databases. Mariner remains a Luddite and a member of the silent generation. One day he will buy a pony and a pony cart. Who needs automobiles driven by AI? The pony knows the way.

Nevertheless, read the book. You owe it to yourself to understand your future self-worth.

Ancient Mariner

Hello?….Hello?

On Friday Mariner’s household lost its connection to the outside world – that is, internet and landline service. We tried several times to reboot the router, pulled out old cheap indoor antennae to no avail and finally called our telephone company. They will have a service person out Monday at the earliest. All we have is our flip cell phones.

It is silent in the house, especially in the evening. No television, no facetime, no internet, no news, no 1970s game shows, no documentaries, no British mysteries, no noise at all. This reinforces mariner’s opinion that an outside antenna is required to bring the rest of the world to rural Iowa – to say nothing about poor internet access generally.

In its place, there is NPR, an overloaded In-Box to clean out, our collection of TV shows on DVD, hundreds of musical CDs, some meaningful subject presentations and of course books and magazines. We shall survive but what is significant is the silence. A good example is dinnertime. Usually we watch a news program or eat around a facetime call. These past nights all mariner and his wife had was to talk to one another! Not that that is bad; it was nice. But silence sat at the dinner table, too.

The daytime is not affected much; mariner and his wife have many distractions that don’t involve watching television. Email maintenance is an early morning or very late evening chore so while email is missed, silence and isolation aren’t part of the experience.

Mariner thinks about the millions of internet users who have incorporated social media as the primary social interaction in their lives. How isolated they would feel in our circumstance. Obviously, telecommunications, satellites, internet and innumerable electronic devices have become an integral part of the human experience; just as obvious is the human dependency. We must do a better job managing electronic influences that take advantage of our dependency.

Another thought that crossed mariner’s mind is how very large social awareness is today. One can delve into any country, any subject, any political event, any culture and anyone around the world who is willing to share time online. One has at hand an unending encyclopedia covering every subject in great detail, even immediate news headlines around the world.

Before World War I, and especially before automobiles, a person’s reality was very small. If a person wasn’t present, there was no awareness. Reality stopped at hands-on. Imagine living a lifestyle, city or rural, that consisted totally of first-hand awareness, the same day after day, year after year. Was that easier and more manageable or is full awareness a tool that improves our mental comfort and eases our sense of security?

Ancient Mariner

Science News

֎ Soon everyone will be able to have their own Jackson 5.

In some farmers’ ideal world, cows would birth only females, sows would bear no boars, and chicks would all grow up to be hens. Such sex ratios would stop them from killing millions of male animals, which don’t produce eggs or milk.

Now, scientists are a step closer to this reality. Researchers have harnessed the gene editor CRISPR to produce litters of mice all of one sex. That’s a potential boon to agriculture and may offer a more immediate advantage in scientific research. “The paper shows a state-of-the-art solution to producing single-sex species” with “impressive results,” says Ehud Qimron, a CRISPR expert at Tel Aviv University who was not involved with the work.

Finally humans can match whiptail lizards (genus Aspidoscelis) who are only female.

֎ Here’s a picture of your oldest cousin, called “Lucy’s Baby”. In 1974, the world was stunned by the discovery of “Lucy,” the partial skeleton of a human ancestor that walked upright—and still spent time in the trees—3.2 million years ago. Later discoveries revealed her species, scattered throughout eastern Africa, had brains bigger than chimpanzees. But a new study of an ancient toddler finds that the brains of Lucy’s kind were organized less like those of humans and more like those of chimps. That suggests the brains of our ancestors expanded before they reorganized in the ways that let us engage in more complex mental behaviors such as making tools and developing language. The remains also suggest Lucy’s species had a relatively long childhood—similar to modern humans—and they would have needed parenting longer than their chimp relatives. Called Australopithecus afarensis, Lucy and her family grew to a height of three feet.

To get a glimpse of the future of Homo sapiens, here’s a snapshot for you:

Yes, she is a fully conversant robot.

– – – –

Cannot leave without quoting Mark Twain who had this to say about human morality:

“If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principle difference between a dog and a man.

Ancient Mariner

Stupidity is a human characteristic

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.  – George Carlin

Two that are stupider are the parents of the student who shot attendees at his school. They bought him a semiautomatic pistol then refused to intercede in an obviously distraught situation. The school administrator is at best of average stupidity. Given the nation’s propensity for killing school children faster than the Taliban, how did the boy get a weapon into the school?

Another stupider individual is Kyle Rittenhouse who carried an AK assault rifle to a rally in another state. Also stupid are all the governments involved. How could a boy who traveled to Wisconsin with an unlicensed weapon, brandish it in public, then kill people with it and not face at least one charge, say, ‘disturbing the peace’?

Others that are stupider are the unvaccinated citizens in states infected with Trump disease. Several reports from different quarters say that the death rate from Covid in these states is three times higher than Covid deaths in vaccinated states.

Stupid is as stupid does.  – Forrest Gump

Stupider is the Republican Party. By what set of rules, ideology or practicality can the party endorse/unendorse Marjorie Taylor Greene and Liz Cheney at the same time?  Oh, mariner forgot – it’s the electorate that is stupider; representatives are in it for the money.

You can’t argue with stupidity.  – Jermaine Jackson

In politics, stupidity is not a handicap.  – Napoleon Bonaparte

Ancient Mariner

 

Sailing through life

As the fall has moved on, mariner has focused more time on the internal affairs of home and garden. It is a relief not to follow closely each day’s news and thereby carry the weight of misguided voters and politicians, regardless of polarity and party.

He has completed repotting the frost-sensitive bulbs and plants; he has made a small bench to hold flower pots in his office; he has cleared the vegetable gardens for next year; next are the trellises and rabbit-guards necessary for the survival of small vulnerable shrubs. As winter sets in he has maintenance to do on tractors, lawnmowers and in-house projects like repairing a door and some basement windows.

Then there is the family gathering at Christmas; it is a week of immeasurable cacophony and family joy. The world ends at the front door.

But his mood is a lot like someone who is aware of impending doom. It is a feeling of despair that has dried of activity and lay like an ash at the back of the mind. Daily life continues with projects and distractions but there is a faint sense in the background that the outside world isn’t going to be kind.

So mariner will continue focusing on distractions like how to make a smart television do what mariner wants it to do – it can’t; mariner needs a tower for digital broadcasting; streaming is not convenient and is intensely iterative. In January the seed catalogs will arrive virtually every day for a month. Will this be the year mariner builds a small, traditional greenhouse? The backyard needs to be graded; mariner hasn’t used a bobcat since he laid a road to the farm equipment shed – maybe 1995. The orchard will get a trimming in January, too. A year from now in 2022 mariner plans to make his first batch of apple cider.

A hospice can be fun if one knows how to work it. As a Christmas gift for him, mariner has suggested a hover board.

Ancient Mariner

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

Indeed so. These years are difficult to manage and offer little reward for our efforts. Confronted with a pandemic, an irrational president, a changing work environment and a period of unusually intense generational shift, such broad confrontational experience makes us experts.

Everyone probably rehearses what to say or not if anything about politics, religion, the old days or the in-laws pops up during the holiday gathering. As an aid, mariner provides a quote about arguing. Credited to Jonathan Haidt, Professor of Ethical Leadership at New York University, it’s an analogy about the effects of arguing by using a rider on an elephant:

“Think of the rider as your rational mind and the elephant as everything else about you, the automatic processes, the 99 percent of what’s going on in your mind that you’re not aware of.”

Most of us spend our time trying to reach the rider. This is us forwarding fact-checks, arguing about the integrity of Dominion voting machines, or debating the evidence in the Rittenhouse trial. But Haidt notes, “if the elephant doesn’t want to move, then no rider in the world can force him into motion. The elephant simply overpowers the rider.”

So don’t waste time arguing. The elephant isn’t going to move. Further, don’t take it personally – the elephant doesn’t.

Tomorrow is a day of consuming, not only of great cuisine but of the joy of family, friends and the pleasure of being in a caring environment.

Make it last; the world still will be there on Monday.

Ancient Mariner

Thoughts on Evolution

Mariner writes this blog to avoid picking the last apples to make a year’s supply of apple butter. Why does he defeat himself with laziness? His thoughts turn to what evolution has created in the 900,000 years of creating the hominid line. It certainly hasn’t stood still. Everyone has seen the ascent of man chart. Mariner provides a variation below:

Paleontologists often identify key transitions that mark different physiological species. The most common are when –

֎ Early monkey species came down from the trees. Groups or tribes of the new ape species began to have a more stationery society and expanded their diet to more insects, small creatures and additional low vegetation like roots.

֎ In Northern Africa there were periods of drought that forced the ape-hominid to forage more widely. The demands of this long lasting period demanded the ability to range even farther, taking more energy and stamina to sustain the species. Two key evolutionary improvements were the ability to perspire and a brain that could take charge of basic visceral functions when hunting, thereby allowing man to outrun animals by wearing them down.

֎ But something new was happening. Evolution was changing the brain. By the time these early hominids left Africa, frontal lobes were growing rapidly in the brain. Early man began to have the ability to surmise beyond physical reality. There was a new smartness that required logic to perceive advantage. When the early hominids arrived in the Fertile Crescent, the area had perfect weather and a robust ecosystem. Man surmised, “If we’re going to eat so much of this grass (Kamut/Khorasan, an ancient version of wheat), why not collect the seeds and grow it more conveniently”. Because an excess of resources could be created, this was the beginning of agriculturally-based society and feudal capitalism as well.

֎ Evolution had provided man, by then called Homo erectus, the advantage to breed rapidly and consequently H. erectus had to expand territory across whole continents in order to sustain what was considered a safe survivability. Evolutionary ethics promotes successful survivability; expansion is possible because of a certain advantage to the species. This is not new; today consider the Lionfish, a flourishing invasive species in U.S. Southeast and Caribbean coastal waters. The difference is that Lionfish do not have frontal lobes. Humans, on the other hand, know full well the relationship between investment and profit: “chop those trees down, damn it, there’s money to be made!” or maybe, “Kill those savages, they aren’t Christians!” Both logical in evolutionary terms.

֎ Since Roman times in the West, Human frontal lobes have taken over ethical control of what used to mean ‘survival’ to the planet’s ecosystems – themselves a product of evolution but without frontal lobes. Humans with their ever growing frontal lobes have expanded into Einstein’s universe of time and space and they are eager to expand beyond this planet to leverage the profit motive even while significant numbers of the human species languish on Earth.

– – – –

Mariner stops here to pick apples. What about these frontal lobes? Are they a self-destructive error on evolution’s part? Thousands of species including many Homo precursors have gone extinct because of unintended shortcomings.

Have a happy holiday season!

Ancient Mariner

 

More about gumption

Mariner is one of millions of older people all around the world – beyond career, beyond younger generations, beyond participation. Recently he assigned the word ‘gumption’ to the special motivation it takes to be a successful old person. Below is another description from folks who know a lot more about it than mariner does. Being old himself, he understands clearly how true these words are from The Journal of Positive Psychology in 2016:

“Coherence: how events fit together. This is an understanding that things happen in your life for a reason. That doesn’t necessarily mean you can fit new developments into your narrative the moment they happen, but you usually are able to do so afterward, so you have faith that you eventually will.” [coherence means one is an engaged part of reality, a fellow player]

“Purpose: the existence of goals and aims. This is the belief that you are alive in order to do something. Think of purpose as your personal mission statement, such as “the purpose of my life is to share the secrets to happiness” or “I am here to spread love abundantly.”

“Significance: life’s inherent value. This is the sense that your life matters. If you have high levels of significance, you’re confident that the world would be a tiny bit—or perhaps a lot—poorer if you didn’t exist.”

It takes a lot of gumption to sustain these three values, especially if you live alone, especially if you are infirm and shut in, especially if you are financially destitute.

If you are an old folk and have difficulty with these descriptions, depression and slow demise will occur. If you are a young person, your gumption still is required to apply these principles to have a happier life.

Arouse your gumption and turn things around. Be prepared; no career has ever required more effort.

Ancient Mariner

 

The Next World War

Understand that mariner and his alter egos do not have the ability to predict anything. Mariner just reads tea leaves . . .

What makes world wars ‘world wars’ is a unification of several nations united against a group of other nations; typically the nations are spread about a bit and share partially unified political, military and economic support. Modern telecommunications have allowed a number of autocratic governments to quickly, by historic standards, share objectives, strategies and resistance to other nations that they consider to be enemies (all democracies). Below is a list of the leaders of these autocratic nations – all of which already plot support for one another in an effort to stave off pressures from democratic nations.

Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela

Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus

Vladimir Putin, Russia

Xi Jinping, China

Recep Erdogan, Turkey

There are, all in all, 50 significant dictatorships around the world but the list above actively is plotting to disrupt or weaken democratic influence in world politics and economics. One dictatorship of note is excluded because it lacks the sophistication of the other dictatorships: North Korea, who on its own is an unpredictable and uncontrollable disruption.

The fuses that will ignite destructive behavior are neighboring nations and organizations. For example, not many news cycles go by before mention is made of Poland, NATO, Ukraine, Slovakia and Lithuania – just to name nations adjacent to Russian-controlled Eastern Europe.

China has made it clear that only China will dominate the Pacific; Taiwan definitely is a fuse and, possibly, Australia. Japan has committed to support the U.S. and Taiwan if conflict erupts.

Since the Vietnam War, nuclear agreements have pushed off Armageddon but recently both Russia and China (along with North Korea) have active production of more nuclear rockets. Also, since the Vietnam War economic sanctions have held errant behavior to a degree but this is an increasingly irrelevant strategy – particularly with Russia.

If open conflict occurs, it will not be a typical bullet war like World War II or Vietnam. The war will be fought largely by electronically disrupting the internet, satellites, banks, utilities, military intelligence and international supply chains and, given the added pressures of global warming, immigrants themselves will be weaponized to cause disruption in a nation’s functionality – note Belarus already is using immigrants to disrupt Eastern European politics.

Open conflict will not encircle the planet as it did in past world wars but will be used as a distraction and an aggravated disruption while more economic and technological advantages are pursued. Count on smaller, less affluent nations to be battle zones.

What can’t be predicted is the intense interruption that will be caused by global warming. Whether there is open war or not, every nation will be tested in its own sovereignty by flooding, droughts and continent-sized changes in agricultural stability – not to mention massive human migrations and economies drained by a pure need to physically survive.

A highly speculative thought is if open conflict can be delayed until 2040, global warming may prevent any thought of war as nations shift to survival mode.

The Zees have their hands full.

Ancient Mariner