Trends

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Folks tend to look for clues about climate change in weather patterns. It is true that climates are shifting but on a seasonal basis it is hard to measure how much is change and how much is typical variability. The global indicators, melting glaciers, ocean temperatures and melting permafrost are a more direct way to measure change. All indications are that global warming is accelerating, to wit:

The Washington Post reports that Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier, a river of ice large enough to raise sea levels by 1.6 feet, was already among the fastest-melting glaciers in the world. Now scientists have found that the ice mass is flowing even more rapidly.

Further, Siberia is experiencing active permafrost melt on a grand scale. Some prognosticators suggest that by the end of the century Russia will make more from wheat exports than it does from oil today.

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Mariner has mentioned often that the United States is in the long, painful death throes of Reaganism. Causes are a changing world, changing environment, changing technology and new economic structures. What is trending at the moment is Republican autocracy. Will manipulation of the elections be enough to sustain the twentieth century into the twenty-first?

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Speaking of economics, a growingly obvious trend is the shrinking of Europe’s role in world economics. Europe has tended toward smaller business models; for example, Apple has a larger net value than the top 30 firms in Europe. Perhaps its history of smaller nations and many economies has led Europe to this preference but as a result, there will be only two global business leaders: China and the United States – perhaps, with luck, India. The global trend definitely is toward international, multimarket corporations who will anchor worldwide supply chains similar to Amazon.

The government role is to develop supply chain style arrangements between nations. One new example of this is an agreement by the G7 to levy a worldwide 15 percent tax on corporations to prevent corporations from avoiding taxes by moving operations to the nation with the least tax.

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Several news items have been about seafood. It seems the warming oceans have had an effect on everything from seals and whales to lobsters and commercial fishing species. From Science Magazine:

“… basically what we found all over the ocean, wherever we had data, is that the abundance of large fish, in terms of numbers and weight, were ten times higher originally than they are now. That is, that what we’re left is one-tenth of the original number and weight of large, large fish.”

Here in the United States it already has been noted several years ago that the ‘Maine’ lobster has moved on to other locations.

Ancient Mariner

Purgatory

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Is Purgatory required by God, the Holy Roman Catholic Church or the medical profession? Mariner is of an age where he no longer is a mainstay of society, economics or politics. Like millions of other citizens, he represents past accomplishments, past memories and lost faculties.

It causes mariner to ponder – Was the Roman Church right to declare that purgatory was after death? It seems that would make a situation similar to the American immigration policy at the Mexican border. Would God be that disorganized? True, the Church made a lot of money buying and selling souls – sort of like the smugglers bringing immigrants from Central America.

Another explanation is that, similar to the penances of the Church, the medical profession has declared that purgatory is before one dies, not after. The medical industry makes lots of money by extending the human lifespan but not extending the physical or mental capabilities that existed earlier and further makes it feel more like purgatory by prolonging half-cured illnesses and disabilities. Is purgatory a medical phenomenon?

What is God’s take on this? As best we can tell, God created humans as part of his Garden of Eden. Things were perfect until the snake came along. So because we consciously knew the procreation game, God had to modify some things. He changed humans and all creatures into beings that passed on. He said “Instead of living forever in the Garden of Eden, humans will exist as a three-generational creature then die.” So purgatory doesn’t seem to be in God’s plans.

It is true that Jesus offered a get-into-heaven-free deal in exchange for promoting God’s agenda but that quickly disappeared when the Church became the gardener.

All mariner knows is that he is not the human he was when he was forty. Purgatory, apparently, is a real thing; we just don’t know who to blame.

Ancient Mariner

Teaching is changing

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There are two very prominent moments when how students were taught changed dramatically. Today, a third seems to be emerging.

֎ The first moment was when the ‘University’ of Bologna was created in 1088. It was a defensive legal gesture to protect young people who were not citizens who otherwise would be charged with reparation fees. As the university became a permanent institution over the next decades, instructors were hired to teach many of the subjects that still exist in today’s curricula. Today the University of Bologna remains one of the premier universities in the world.

֎ The second moment occurred when the first grades were issued at Yale in the year 1785, when President Ezra Stiles, after examining 58 seniors, recorded in his diary that there were ‘Twenty Optimi, sixteen second Optimi, twelve Inferiores, ten Pejores.’ By the 1850’s what a student learned was defined strictly by their grades, not by what they may have actually learned in terms of usefulness and applicability. The pejorative term for learning something just to get good grades is ‘bullimic learning’ loosely interpreted as “compulsive studying usually followed by self-induced test taking”

Everyone is familiar with contemporary grading from primary to post graduate studies. Refinements include grade averaging with GPA, SAT, and even social accomplishment as a comparative. Disparities have grown reflected through race, class and prestigious selection.

֎ Today, however, things are changing. The transition has been gradual, more an effort to accommodate the psychological wellbeing of pre-schoolers; recently the new approach has seeped into primary grades. Speaking very broadly, students are taught in small groups and the group is “graded” on its accomplishments – which often are not strictly about the ABCs – and students are not individually graded.

Ironically, for many decades in the corporate world employees are made part of a team whose job is to accomplish some new goal or function. The team gets the credit while individuals benefit by being a member. The experience almost entirely is one of learning useful and applicable knowledge.

The future of higher education will use integrated, multi-subject classes, job-focused education and move beyond the two or four year model to provide lifelong learning. Successful universities must aggressively prepare their institutions to avoid further disruption.

It is likely that the line between corporate employment and college enrollment may become a continuously integrated relationship. Collaboration with unions, trade associations, libraries and other peripheral organizations is likely.

Ancient Mariner

You are supposed to go first

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No one denies the confrontational identity politics that prevails today; no one denies the emotional disruption of fifteen months in virtual isolation; no one denies the insecurity of a disappearing lifestyle that eliminates storefronts, careers and every day family security; no one denies the utter absence of a life of contentment, quiet comfort and satisfaction. How do we stop this hellish train to nowhere?

You go first. What are some tricks to escape the gravity of society today? The issue is, after all, how you feel as an individual. How everyone else feels is abstract; what makes YOU feel better and thereby improves life in these times, at least for yourself?

What follows are a few examples that seem to work at an individual level.

֎ Mariner’s wife rises early in the morning to prepare a simple but tasty breakfast. She eats this breakfast outdoors on the back deck just as the garden, birds, insects and other creatures are waking up and the Sun is rising on a new day. Human intervention doesn’t exist; there are no responsibilities, no reason to account for the human world, no thought of chores. In her backyard, at least, all’s well and peace is at hand.

This moment is more powerful and more rewarding than it reads. It arms the reader with confidence at a subconscious level. It is easy to imagine the difference between a morning coffee while watching morning television and a morning coffee in a pleasant, reassuring moment of solitude. It may take some practice to shut down the angst of facing the outside world but it is worth it.

Besides the magic of internal peace, its magic will soften your approach to others during the day and permit you to be less confrontational. Isn’t this an example of how to ‘pass it forward’ in an effort to slow that hellish train?

֎ Mariner lives in a small corner of town where ten homes are clustered in a manner that encourages collective activity. The residents of these homes have political and economic differences that are quite measurable. The political philosophies range from Trump allegiance including conspiracies to extremely progressive socialists. Careers range from retired tradesmen to nurses to master mechanics to systems consultants to truck drivers to school administrators to retired pilots.

In order to sustain civility, sharing, caring and the many other little behaviors that make neighborly life pleasant, everyone practices oppressed confrontation. Neighborly bonding with each other and maintaining an “I’m here if you need me” attitude requires a rule that no one talks about political, religious or philosophical mandates or condescending comments about other neighbors.

It is obvious that unity is more important than ideological supremacy. Isn’t this, too, one small step?

֎ A third exercise is to share, that is to share in a way that would not qualify as every day sharing. The secret is to keep the logistics simple but make a large impact on the recipient(s). Typically the recipient has a hardship of some kind; perhaps being a shut-in, or an invalid or a family suffering a recent death or a family who is in a state of economic hardship or maybe just a special occasion in the recipient’s life. It’s your turn to share some concern and relief to your acquaintances who are in need. Cash not allowed; put yourself and a few friends into it – show sharing, caring and compassion.

Like the first two suggestions, sharing is more powerful and more rewarding than it reads. The common result from all the suggestions is the creation of unity. It is unity that is the antidote to the nation’s infection of identity politics.

It’s your turn.

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On the side, Mariner and his wife were talking about this post. As is her wont, she quickly wrote a poem to reflect on sitting on the porch:

This garden would be perfect
The old man thought
As he leaned on his hoe
And scratched his ear
If it weren’t for that damned young rabbit.

This garden would be perfect
The young rabbit thought
As he munched on lettuce
And scratched his ear
If it weren’t for that damned old man.

This garden is perfect
The poet thought
As she ate breakfast on the deck and enjoyed the view
Having neither the work of maintaining it
Nor the necessity of surviving in it.

MKM 6-4-2021

Ancient Mariner

Everything is the same but different.

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Last Friday on an early, Way To Early, news show there was a piece about how manufacturers were resizing products to compensate for rising production costs rather than raising prices and lose customers. It has a term: ‘shrink-flation’. Demonstrated were toilet paper, potato chips and ice cream, which had fewer sheets, less weight and smaller capacity respectively. Shoppers have been taught to read labels for health reasons; now they must school themselves on size by learning how many grams in a quart or a pound and beware of count in artificial sugar packets; the price doesn’t change.

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Turning to a more sociological vein, everyone agrees the United States is having an identity crisis. It is difficult to know how to handle the situation. For the common citizen, it seems only to be a mish-mash of conflict and pointing fingers. The citizen truly is in the depths of the trenches and even trenches within trenches. How does a citizen gain perspective so that reasonable evaluation can be made?

Learn some facts. Mariner knows this is a tall order for the electorate but if a rational path to recovery is to be available, one must check history for similar situations. Sorry, electorate.

In place of buying textbooks, use Wikipedia to collect information – and make a donation while you’re at it. Search for information on the cause of the French Revolution, the Magna Carta, the Luddite rebellion and the rise of Nazi government (including persecution of Jews) in Germany. Clues for why there were national identity issues may involve financial security of the masses, oppression, racism, power wars and concentration of wealth.

For starters find something in these events comparable to wage freezes for forty years; find something that represents too much cash for the well-to-do; find something that erased major chunks of job availability; find something where power blocks competed too much for the good of the nation. Once historical information has been gained, how were these issues resolved?

Vote accordingly.

Ancient Mariner

From around the World

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During the pandemic citizens became accustomed to ‘free shipping’ from online and storefront retailers. Amazon, for example, touted free shipping in two days. Behind the scenes, however, Amazon had forced sellers to absorb the cost of shipping into their consumer price. This has led to antitrust investigations of Amazon Prime. In short, pervasive free shipping soon may come to an end.

It will be difficult for all three sides of this market — the customers, the drivers and the sellers themselves — to get what they want.

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China has eased birth limits to cope with aging population. Couples in China can now have three children, instead of being limited to two, after the ruling Communist Party eased birth limits Monday. It turns out China, like Japan, the United States and most wealthy and industrialized nations, has an aging population that is increasing while younger citizens are a smaller percentage of the population. The economics are familiar to the US – retired old people cost the economy a lot of money but don’t generate GDP; on the other hand as economies begin to grow in this new era, there aren’t enough workers to do the work. State media reports that leaders also agreed China needs to raise its retirement age to keep more people in the workforce.

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A report by Greenpeace Africa and the Netherlands-based organization Changing Markets urges governments to phase out processing of fish which is fit for human consumption but being used for fishmeal and oil. It says the fish extracted by industrial vessels off West Africa are processed and exported, mainly to Europe and Asia, as feed for fish farms, pet food or use in cosmetics.

The report said the industry is devastating coastal communities and undermining food security in Mauritania, Senegal, the Gambia, Mali and Burkina Faso.

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The Philippines has filed two more diplomatic protests after maritime authorities spotted a total of 165 Chinese vessels within Manila’s exclusive economic zone. The South China Sea is a troubling situation for all the countries adjacent to it. Other nations include Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei. Taiwan, of course, has a tight relationship with the United States which may lead to a military war between China and the US, and perhaps enjoin other Pacific allies like Japan, Australia and South Korea. China has made it clear they want Taiwan back.

As troublesome as these news items are, it is a bit of relief not to discuss American issues for a change.

Ancient Mariner

In God We Trust – sort of

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This information, taken from an Axios newsletter, shows the insidious and very serious threat of the conspiratorial right – in mariner’s own church a parishioner said “The American Flag comes first!!”

“QAnon infects churches

LEFT BARS – The government, media, and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation

CENTER BARS – There is a storm coming soon that will sweep away the elites of power and restore the rightful leaders

RIGHT BARS – Because things have gotten off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country

 

Poll: 5,625 U.S. adults. Margin of error for full survey: ±1.5%. Graphic: PRRI

QAnon conspiracy theories have burrowed so deeply into American churches that pastors are expressing alarm — and a new poll shows the bogus teachings have become as widespread as some denominations.

  • Why it matters: The problem with misinformation and disinformation is that people — lots of people — believe it. And they don’t believe reality coming from the media and even their ministers.”

With all the confrontations of culture change, economic change and dysfunctional government, the most serious issue is the insurrectionist. They are not just militant, armed groups. More ominously, it is anyone still adhering to Trump irrationality and his intent to destroy democracy; it is the legislators doing everything they can to distort the public vote so their minority opinion can win elections; it is our relatives, friends and community associates.

Science can offer solutions to weather, economists can offer solutions to economics. Dysfunctional issues of society and government, however, are in our hands. Is it the United States versus God or is it versus Satan?

Ancient Mariner

As Time Passes

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Here is something interesting that reinforces the impact of inflation since 1950: in 1950, using Penn State prices, one year of college tuition, fees, board and books cost $1,365. In 2021, one year of college tuition, fees, board and books costs $39,084. The college industry has  increased inflation by 54 percent or in terms of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) today it takes $1,660 to buy what $150.00 bought in 1950.

This is nice to know information but with little insight until it is compared to wages. The average annual rate of inflation since the 1970s is 3.3 percent; for wages it is -5.1 percent. In street terms, a dollar in wages in 1978 is worth only 68¢ today. Perhaps this may be the reason there is insurrection across the land.

Waxing philosophically, it is technology that changes the behavior of economics – from the first axe with a handle, to spears, to wind, to steam, to internal combustion to artificial intelligence – financial opportunity shifts dramatically giving those with resources a chance to restructure assets while those without resources suddenly are without stability or even individual purpose.

At this moment we are in a time of rapid social and economic change. Worse, our society is managed by governments functioning as they did in 1978.

Ancient Mariner

 

 

Ten Commandments for our times

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  1. Don’t sell your house until you have closed on the next one. The housing shortage increases day by day across the entire country. The price of housing increases daily as well. One might think it is a good time to sell their home at a good price but buying the next house may cost twice as much – if you can find one.
  2. Keep your job if you have one. If you suspect you may be let go for whatever reason, look for that next job NOW. The employment market is in shambles; it may be best to take a job in another profession that has training, certification, and in a stable industry.
  3. Pay off debt as rapidly as possible even if it cuts into your standard of living. Anything associated with money is facing a large windstorm of change. Having a debt-free income whether it is cash, percentage or bitcoin, it is best to be financially stable – the windstorm will toss everyone around.
  4. Do not arbitrarily renovate your home or property. Raw materials like lumber, siding, pipe and electric materials are up an average of 25 percent; lumber is climbing without hesitation and now costs 80 percent more than it did one year ago. Much of this is due to a sudden jump in housing starts – or price gouging by lumber companies and mills.
  5. Stay in college. This can be difficult amid the cost and fractured studies offered. Even if one must drop down to a smaller college or part time for any reason that is better than dropping out. The job market that is emerging under artificial intelligence will cut more than half the employment market for labor and white collar jobs.
  6. Form babysitting clubs. Because of looming inflation, in those families where both must work, both will have no choice but to find child care. Don’t wait for Biden’s social services programs; they won’t happen until McConnell retires. Back in the day when mariner had wee children, mariner’s wife connected with nine other women who had small children. It was a useful consortium socially and functionally.
  7. Strengthen social circle. In volatile social times like today, where every aspect of life carries a threat, it is important to be able to relate to a group of readily accessible friends in the neighborhood. Humans are natural groupies. Become active in any neighborhood activity from little league baseball to bowling to volunteer work to jigsaw puzzle parties to (in mariner’s day) sock hops.
  8. Have a hobby. It can be anything from counting types of insects to making miniature jewelry to building doghouses. The hobby must be rewarding, provide relief from the daily world and not be a burden on the family – and not cost too much.
  9. Take frequent small excursions. Disney World may not be feasible but driving an hour to a quaint ice cream parlor works just as well. Visit the remaining department stores; this is a disappearing life experience. How many years has it been since that last visit to the national forest? Even taking in a movie may be an increasingly rare experience.
  10. Read. Get away from the television, Siri, video games and other numbing devices. Turn on your own brain. Read a newspaper, comic book, sexy novel or delve into the history of Kyrgyzstan. Reading requires a different part of the brain than the temporal lobe, home of conspiracies and fantasies. Perhaps as a combined effort with #9, visit a library or museum.

Ancient Mariner

Demise of the Local Press

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Yes, even news value in the ‘news’paper is disappearing. It is just another severe shift everyone faces in culture’s future. Over four hundred medium and large market newspapers have been bought by hedge funds and venture capitalists. In every case except a very few, the newspapers are stripped of expensive investigative reporting and local news reporting thereby reducing overhead to gain an average of fifty percent profit versus fifteen percent.

The latest round includes Chicago Tribune, the Baltimore Sun, New York Daily News and major metro papers from Hartford, Conn. to Fort Lauderdale, Fla. These newspapers have been bought by the hedge fund, Alden Global Capital, referred to as the ‘Vulture Fund’. Fortunately, a very few newspapers are picked up by altruistic investors, e.g., Jeff Bezos bought the Washington Post to assure full, unadulterated coverage of news.

So add newspapers to movie theaters, department stores, coffee houses and bars. Notice how these things all required physical movement and personal commitment to achieve? Mariner has decided not to wish for a new Maserati for Christmas.

Instead he only needs a hover board to go to the post office.

 

Mariner is reading a book titled, “The Ones We’ve Been Waiting For – How a new generation of leaders will transform America” By Charlotte Alter. Mariner swears that some of the points in this book were lifted from his Blog. Alter, like mariner, says we must wait until the old timers get out of the way, that it is the millennials who know the answers. She cites emerging personalities in several fields of endeavor like science, business, international politics and local government (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is one of several in government).

Alter says we won’t really know what things will look like until the millennials are pretty much in charge of everything. For one example, they know more intuitively what a cloud is and what it can do besides make it rain.

So, millennials, will mariner and his wife ever go to the movies again? Will they ever meander among racks of new sweaters and shirts? Will they be able to go on a cheap date to McDonald’s instead of waiting for a drone?

Ancient Mariner