In the news

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֎ An interesting poll from GALLUP. What’s interesting is that in one year China jumped significantly over Russia as the greatest enemy of the United States:

Americans’ Perceptions of the U.S.’s Greatest Enemy

What one country anywhere in the world do you consider to be the United States’ greatest enemy today?

Feb 3-21    Feb 3-20      Change
%    % pct. pts.
China 45 22 23
Russia 26 23 3
North Korea/Korea 9 12 -3
Iran 4 19 -15
Iraq 2 7 -5
Afghanistan 1 1 0
United States itself 1 1 0
Mexico 1 — 1
Saudi Arabia — 1 -1
Middle East (non-specific) — 1 -1
Japan — 1 -1
Israel — 2 -2
Syria — 1 -1
Pakistan — 1 -1

The reader must take note that this poll coincides with the coronavirus pandemic. Still, despite the economic catastrophe affecting every nation, China’s size and fast rising GDP (7 percent) makes that nation look more healthy and successful than the US. Further, the cultural differences cause concern as China continues to squeeze individual rights and continues virtual genocide against the Uighur and Kazak Muslims in Xinjiang Province. Finally, modern technology has opened a new arena in spying and warfare that makes every nation paranoid.

֎ While the politicians, public, fossil fuel corporations, press and social media continue bickering whether global warming exists, Federal agencies are taking scientific information seriously. The agencies are trying to figure out models of projection that will predict damage.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Finance Agency and NASA all have met with analytical firms to explore tools that will help protect taxpayers, banks and homes from rising seas, worsening rainstorms and severe droughts linked to climate change.

Mariner advises readers not to invest in coastal properties – especially in Florida where the peninsula will shrink by one fifth including everything below Lake Okeechobee – places like West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Naples and the Keys.

֎ Has the reader seen the news clips of folks on spring break? Sigh. Because mariner’s wife is brave and dutiful and has ventured into the outside world, he has been in virtual quarantine. He has spoken in person only to three other individuals in a year. The vaccination occurred so fast that he didn’t even speak to the technician. Mariner is old and fossilized but he is concerned what this year of isolation has done to elementary school children. Prepubescent children suffer subconsciously and will carry silent aberrations for the rest of their lives.

֎ A growing strategy by the GOP is to blame Joe for immigration numbers. Mariner suggests no President of any party, no authoritarian figurehead can alter the growing migration issue not only from Latin countries but from every country into every country around the globe. The reason: weak global economics and changing climate. Even squirrels know to migrate to mariner’s feeding station when there’s a foot of snow on the ground.

֎ Not in the news but referencing the post about pop psych, mariner is reminded that the pop psych terms ‘inductive’ and ‘deductive’ are similar to ‘what’ and ‘why’.

Ancient Mariner

 

Nation Tectonics

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Recently mariner wrote a post describing the new international strategy of nations integrating responsibility for economics and other international issues rather than using traditional treaties and trade agreements. He learned that Joe Biden already has started dialogue with this strategy in mind. From Axios:

“President Biden and Secretary of State Tony Blinken meet virtually Friday with the other leaders of “The Quad” — an alliance of Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. that aims at being a counterweight to China, which the administration calls “the biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century.”

The reader may recall in the post that there was a ‘sumo’ league forming around the Pacific Ocean. The quad mentioned includes two of the three sumos: the US and India. Australia already is feeling China deliberately undermining its fishing industry and comically if not seriously, India and China are in a battle using the number of toilets each has to represent modernity.

While the Quad may tie up GDP and political influence among the larger Pacific nations, China also has the ‘Belt and Road’ strategy to bind the Far East, Middle East, Eastern Europe and Russia into a giant supply chain. It’s almost like plate tectonics except it is nations slowly moving into a new economic era.

Mariner is eager for North and South America to establish a similar supply line dependency. Think how many issues could be normalized if both continents had better governments and economies. Maybe immigration would go away if there were no reason to flee failing governments.

Ancient Mariner

Trends

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֎ From NEWSY:

“A White nationalist movement that fueled a new rise for Europe’s far-right continues to gain momentum around the world and is helping to lure in and radicalize new recruits, according to terrorism experts. The French government dissolved the world’s first major “Identitarian” group in February, but not before its underlying ideology spread to at least 16 countries, including the U.S. White nationalist groups have become increasingly emboldened in their efforts to recruit. An explosion of propaganda, stickers and banners warn of a coming “invasion” of immigrants.”

The article documents the growth of far-right vigilantism around the world – perhaps because the numbers of immigrants grow due to collapsed economies and shifting climate and aided by social media. Here in the United States there is enough economy at the moment to curtail the use of field artillery and military assaults. Still, the political force is growing. The target will be the democratic concepts of any government: the government itself (January 6), voting (GOP?) and civil liberties (elect Donald again).

Mariner doesn’t believe that within the United States there will be a collapse of democracy – which already has happened within NATO and middle-eastern nations but for the US it will be a thorn in the side of progress through these difficult times.

֎ GOP: When is it time to put the ol’ horse down?

Here’s the current breakdown of all Senators by age:

80s: 7
70s: 24
60s: 38
50s: 19
40s: 12

So around a third are aged over 70 and around two thirds are over 60.

Term limits would solve the problem. A maximum of three six year terms should be enough to make a decent contribution (mariner believes there should be an age limit as well). The point is this: The GOP perception of conservative government hasn’t changed since 1980. It hasn’t changed because the old fogeys, who grew up and established their career in a time that no longer exists, are still in charge of GOP politics. The turtle is 79; mariner’s senator is 87. Don’t forget our Presidents: Donald left office at 75 and Joe is 78.

The entire Senate is over the hill; of 100 senators, 69 are over 60! What saves the democrats from the same extent of criticism is that the democrats always are trying to change something rather than defend the status quo.

The coronavirus, introduced by godly forces tired of lagging progress, has short-sheeted the GOP. The GOP quickly must remake their bed – much more quickly than the normal evolution of economics and culture would require.

In case a reader doesn’t know how to put the ol’ horse down, it is quick and bloodless: don’t vote for them. Not only that, vote for someone under 55.

֎ Make note of the term XR (extended reality – a term from gaming corporations that has become a term meaning take as much human activity and responsibility as possible and put it on the Internet). Many corporations are redefining their dream income model to be completely online and, this is the interesting part, be the sole owner of entire segments of society. AirB&B sees itself as the Department of Housing and Urban Development for all homes in the US; Uber imagines that all cars – repeat, ALL cars – will belong to Uber. Already Zuckerberg is challenging antitrust lawsuits by saying the Internet is the competition. All money, too, will be bitcoins. A big question: which corporation will own all the banks and credit card companies?

So the government will have a lot less to worry about since corporations will automate everything using proprietary software. Who will own all the votes?

Ancient Mariner

What kind of a person are you?

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When mariner was young his father was attending seminary. His father was entertained by pop psychology, a term that implied, through simplistic descriptions, the behaviorisms of human beings. Mariner has carried this shorthand forward and often identifies someone in simplistic ‘pop psych’ terms. Below are two examples which the reader may recall from older posts but are worth rereading to distract you from the doldrums of being sheltered-in.

֎ Human behavior is of three types: What people, Why people and How people. The ‘what’ person must understand what actions the situation requires; often they have lists of what to do and through these lists understand the reality of things. ‘Why’ people can’t understand the reality of things unless they know why something exists and its relationship to a multifaceted reality. Understand that everyone makes lists; ‘what’ needs the list first to comprehend – ‘why’ makes the list last after comprehending. Mariner confesses to being an extreme ‘why’ person.

At one point in his life, mariner was a supervisor for a computer programming unit. A time came when another supervisor, a woman, was leaving the company. The manager decided to merge the two groups keeping mariner as the supervisor. Mariner had to learn the functions of the other group so he visited the woman to learn about its operation.

She sat at a computer screen and proceeded to read a list of sixteen tasks. When she finished, she said to mariner, “Got it?” Mariner said “No”. She turned back to the computer screen and repeated the list. “Are we good?” she said. Mariner said “No”. Showing frustration and disdain, she said “How in the hell did you ever become a supervisor?” It is true that ‘what’ and ‘why’ people don’t mix well. Fortunately for organizations, there are ‘how’ people. ‘How’ people make good managers because they understand the perspective of both ‘what’ and ‘why’ people. ‘How’ people are good problem solvers; their downside is their preoccupation with pragmatism and have little regard for the artful side of life. Interestingly, many trades have high numbers of ‘how’ people.

֎ A second pop psych example is derived from the shapes below. Decide which one you like best before reading on.

If you chose the circle, you are a person sensitive to unity, stability and compatibility. If you chose the square, you are sensitive to conservative values, control and dislike change. If you chose the triangle, you are confrontational, insistent and unforgiving. The squiggly line means you are unconventional, artistic and free-spirited.

֎ Pop psych became mainstream in the 70’s and 80’s with the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator. Mariner and many others think it was an example of jumping the shark. How many readers are old enough for someone to have said to them in a condescending way, “I’m an INTJ”.

What makes pop psych less than prophetic is the fact that no one is a pure type. Virtually everyone has a dominant characteristic along with one or more subordinate characteristics. Still, many folks clearly represent one type or another.

Have fun pigeonholing everyone you know.

Ancient Mariner

The truth shall make you whole

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As part of his Great Culling Project, mariner was thumbing through an old college book about philosophy when he came across the word ‘epistemology’. The definition from a philosophy book reads: Epistemology is the branch of philosophy concerned with knowledge. Epistemologists study the nature, origin, and scope of knowledge.

It occurs to mariner that the lack of knowing real truths is a serious problem today when millions of voters believe, despite all evidence, that the election was stolen, that vaccines are dangerous, and that a secret group of child predators rule the world from the basement of a pizza parlor, it becomes clear that we cannot afford to ignore how knowledge is formed and distorted. We are living through an epistemological crisis. To avoid using philosophical jargon, mariner substitutes the word ‘truth’ to mean knowledge and the study of knowledge (epistemology).

It seems how to know truth should be a class in high school along with civics and ethics; it seems all three of these topics would provide a core set of tools with which to survive in a society which, at this moment of massive change in global culture, is foundering. It occurs to mariner that his distrust of the electorate stems from its disregard for these subjects but he will focus on truth.

It seems logical to say that there can be only one truth but this is not so. Even one household cannot agree on what is true. Even learning the same set of hard facts will not eliminate opinion – a form of truth subject to individual attitudes and circumstances. What must be agreed upon is what source represents the closest definition of generic truth from which everyone can draw an opinion.

An excellent example today is the conflict between Donald and the Center for Disease Control (CDC). Donald’s source of truth lay deep in his mind and is extremely self-perceived. The CDC is comprised of professional, career-long medical professionals who are experts at managing medical truth and applying it to a nation’s circumstances. The false perceptions that Donald’s followers believe are, in fact, true if Donald is the agreed upon source of generic truth.

Keeping this treatise short, everyone should learn to identify what provides generic truth without bias from other self-righteous sources; this is a simple tool everyone should learn in high school. Mariner’s focus on how the brain makes decisions is his own effort at defining truth between subconscious emotional truth and the conscious truth of external reality.

Those who are wise when buying automobiles know that the car salesman has his own set of truths which likely are self-righteous in nature. The wise car buyer will investigate independent, generic resources to use as a guide. How can we teach the electorate to practice this method with admittedly more complex social, political and economic issues? A classic observation from an Axios newsletter:

“The Texas power failure is the latest in a series of disasters that will be harder to fix — or prevent from happening again — because Americans are retreating to partisan and cultural corners instead of trying to solve problems.”

Ancient Mariner

 

Have you heard the (ugh) news?

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World news, US news, local news, human news, environment news – all are disturbing. Is it the disorganization of global humanity? Perhaps it’s that there is nothing that is improving or that so much individual suffering is about and in our conscious thought. In any case, news is depressing and leaves us at loose ends.

Add to the lack of a meaningful life in historical terms the extreme oppression brought about by the virus. Jobs, relationships and self-esteem have been crushed – even life itself has been taken from so many.

Where is our victory train? Where is satisfaction? Where are seamless good times? It was bigger news than would have been typical when the roller rink reopened in a nearby town. How starved are we to experience enjoyment that a roller rink is headline news? Mariner was so thirsty for good times he reminisced for a minute or two about his good times at roller rinks. That was more than sixty years ago!

To be more abstract about it, we are like the mouse in a very large, complex maze where progress cannot be measured until the successful completion of the maze. Similar to the mouse, we have only our faith in ourselves, our ability to remain humane and courteous, our tenacity at remaining sane even in a social vacuum, and our commitment to accomplishment – if only to survive.

When one thinks about it, that list is a tall order indeed. But it is duty, it is our charge, the rules of life’s game. It is the path to survival.

Anthropologist Joe Campbell had it right when he said our lives are like a hero’s path. Let’s hope at the end of the journey we can all be in one of those exuberant beer commercials.

Ancient Mariner

It’s a strange world

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There is a legitimate scientific theory that we live in multiple universes. Not each one separate from the other but conjoined in the same physical space. This theory exists because it is a way to solve certain conflicts in the deep channels of theoretical physics. Mariner, however, has absolute proof that we have two different times existing in the same space.

Mariner has prescriptions so he keeps a week-long pill box. The proof of multiple times from multiple universes is that he fills the box for seven days but in two days it is empty! Yes, the reader might dismiss this as folly but that is because by habit we measure time based only on the movement of the Earth as it moves through the Solar System. When we have a notion that something seems untimely, take a lesson from the Zen and conspiracy folks who understand that time has different speeds. Different speeds means different universes. Think about the many times the reader suddenly said, “Didn’t I just do this?”

Conversely, how many times does the reader feel they have been put on hold for a very long time when they call someone? Could it be the person on the other end just said “Doesn’t this phone ever stop ringing?” It is two different universes at the same moment.

We are conflicted because the two universes waffle back and forth like throwing two rocks into a pond at different locations: the resultant waves coexist in the same space.

If the reader still is dubious, consider this: A bus driver drives a bit slower because he is ahead of his route schedule but the reader is waiting stressfully because the bus hasn’t come. It is simply two different universes with different time speeds existing in the same space.

If the reader considers this theory plausible, they understand how Donald’s base believes he won the election.

Ancient Mariner

Some of this, some of that

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֎ Strolling about on the search engine, as is mariner’s wont, he came across an infrequent word that took him back to college/preacher days when he was reading about religion, philosophy and logic and as a preacher, dealing with religious understanding as part of his job. The word is ‘theodicy’. Mariner had to search for a while but he found a post written in 2016 about this very topic. The subject of theodicy had been raised when one of his nonagenarian friends used the word. Mariner was surprised that someone actually knew this word and its context in theology. A discussion ensued about the goodness of God, whether goodness was derived from human experience and other obtuse considerations.

The next day mariner wrote the post in an effort to settle the meaning of the term theodicy. Mariner provides the reference if you are curious about theodicy; be forewarned that there definitely is no room for emoji and other iconery. [Go to the Home page and search “Theodicy and Secularism” posted March 19, 2016.]

֎ On a less esoteric front, March is upon us. Living on the 40th parallel, small thoughts of gardening, shrub pruning and weed killing poke into consciousness. This past winter was unusual in that there was significant snow cover for about three to four weeks. This snow just now is disappearing as the Sun’s rays melt it away.

Having the snow cover for so long has been hard on small wildlife. Mariner’s shrubbery has exceptional damage caused by hungry rabbits, eating some smaller shrubs to the ground. Rabbits are one of those creatures nature put in place so predators would have something to eat. In a town, there are no indigenous predators.

Sometimes a fox will take residence in town; they are excellent predators. Once in a while the few Redtail hawks will capture a young rabbit and sometimes one of the few feral cats will catch one. None of these predators, however, do enough damage to control rabbit population. In his defense, mariner has become a predator, too. But he isn’t any better at killing rabbits than all the other town predators. So it will be another year of cursing the rabbit in the yard because the rabbit is between mariner and his rifle.

֎ Moving on to more serious matters, mariner wrote in a few posts about the need to have multiple nations bond together administratively in order to manage global issues. An early, embryotic move in this direction is how nations are dividing chores among themselves to deal with China. Note this paragraph from Politico:

“COUNTERING CHINA WITH … MODULAR SECTORAL ALLIANCES? The Wall Street Journal reports progress within the Biden administration on how to organize containment of China. According to the report, alliances would be sectoral and the members would differ with each issue. The core alliance members would be the G-7 countries, with others added according to need: a modular model that avoids new bureaucratic institutions and resembles calls for a T-10 group of democratic tech allies. For example, Israel on tech and artificial intelligence, or India on trade issues. Don’t expect that every country will announce their participation.”

Ancient Mariner

Keep a Close Eye – things are changing

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Mariner submitted a post yesterday warning of a political tendency toward authoritarianism saying that it was a prominent movement in local jurisdictions across the nation. In this morning’s mail Nate Silver at 538.com wrote the following:

“Republican state legislators spend the early days of this year’s legislative session proposing laws that would make it harder to vote — especially in ways disproportionately used by Democrats and voters of color — under the pretense of preventing large-scale voter fraud (which doesn’t exist).

According to the Brennan Center for Justice, a pro-voting-rights advocacy group, more than 165 bills restricting voting access have been proposed in 33 state legislatures — more than four times as many as had been proposed in February 2020.”

The founding fathers left voting procedures to the states likely because of poor communication in those days. That decision, however, has led to disproportional representation in the Senate, the Electoral College and biased practices in gerrymandering. Whichever party controls the state legislature, controls voting. In Georgia there is a bill that would allow the legislature to overturn an election because it didn’t like the outcome.

What makes this movement important to watch is that polls all along have shown that 40 percent of republicans favor Donald and authoritarian practices that discourage democracy. In the last Presidential election 70 million citizens voted for Donald. At 40 percent, that’s 28 million votes against democracy already on record.

Nationally, the United States is democratic. At the State level, 22 states are consistently red states versus 14 blue states; the rest are close to even but unpredictable. At the county level, well, the reader saw the county results in the last post.

The point is this: Benjamin Franklin’s comment that the US will be a democracy only as long as we can keep it has come to a critical point. Around the world democracies are falling like flies to authoritarian governments. This century has begun an era of hardship that has tossed stable governments in the air like confetti.

The next holocaust will include blacks, Hispanics and Asians as well as Jews.

Ancient Mariner

Yes, Virginia, one day Santa may have to move to Antarctica

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֎ Mariner has written in past posts about Earth’s polar magnetic field flipping erratically in the Bering Sea and the southern Atlantic. The following summary is copied from the current Science Magazine:

Kauri trees mark magnetic flip 42,000 years ago

By Paul Voosen

Using a remarkable record from a 42,000-year-old kauri tree preserved in a bog, researchers have pieced together a record of the last time Earth’s protective magnetic field weakened and its poles flipped—known as the Laschamp excursion—exposing the world to a bombardment of cosmic rays and, the team suggests, briefly shifting Earth’s climate. The record shows the field nearly failed prior to its brief swap, which only lasted 500 years. Combined with an unusually quiet Sun that is believed to have occurred during this time, cosmic rays could have caused a notable drop in stratospheric ozone, shifting wind flows and climate patterns, they suggest.[1]

֎ Bad Omens

Here’s what history tells us about what’s next for Trumpism. “From Berlusconism in Italy to Perónism in Argentina and Fujimorismo in Peru, personality-driven movements rarely fade once their leaders have left office.”

Trump’s county-level 2016 election map (red means GOP win):

“To the frustration of those Republicans who want to steer a new course, state-party committees have become the strongest redoubts of Trumpism,” Russell Berman reported last week.

Censured by a state GOP
Supported Biden’s … Voted in favor of Trump’s …
Campaign* Certification** Senate Trial† Impeachment††
Sen. Burr ✓ ✓
Sen. Cassidy ✓ ✓ ✓
Rep. Cheney ✓ ✓
Gov. Ducey ✓
Ex-Sen. Flake ✓ ✓
Cindy McCain ✓ ✓
Rep. Rice ✓
Censured by a county GOP or multiple counties
Supported Biden’s … Voted in favor of Trump’s …
Campaign* Certification** Senate Trial† Impeachment††
Rep. Kinzinger ✓ ✓
Sen. McConnell ✓
Rep. Newhouse ✓ ✓
Sen. Sasse ✓ ✓ ✓
Rep. Upton ✓ ✓

*Actively endorsed Biden.

**Acknowledged or supported certification of Biden’s victory before or on Jan. 6-7.

†Voted in favor of constitutionality of Trump Senate trial.

††Voted for either impeachment in the House or conviction in the Senate.

Officials censured by both state and local GOPs are categorized by the highest censure they received.

Source: News Reports

America’s next authoritarian will be much more competent. As Zeynep Tufekci[2] warned back in November: “It won’t be easy to make the next Trumpist a one-term president.” To wit from Axios:

“Trump advisers will meet with him at Mar-a-Lago this week to plan his next political moves, and to set up the machinery for king making in the 2022 midterms. Trump is expected to stoke primary challenges for some of those who have crossed him, and shower money and endorsements on the Trumpiest candidates. State-level officials, fresh off censuring Trump critics, stand ready to back him up.” [Currently given only thin margins for the democrats in both the Senate and the House, any success by Donald or his nationalist party likely will flip Congress red. AM]

Remember that 70 million citizens voted for Donald in spite of himself and his authoritarian politics. The clouds look familiar – like the clouds in Germany in the early 20th century. It is time for the public to educate itself on fascism. A good reference is Madelyn Albright’s book, “Fascism, A warning”. Banished after the second world war, Fascism is on the rise again, from North Korea to Hungary and Turkey, while a newly introspective America at best looks the other way, sometimes even offers encouragement. Madeleine Albright’s book is a warning aimed at all of us to look up from our petty partisan bickering.

֎ The good news is now that Joe is President and has made overtures to Europe, the Western Alliance quickly is re-energizing itself to deal with Russia, cyber warfare, big data, global warming and repairing trade arrangements. Still, the rubber meets the road when the alliance bumps into Brexit, immigration, EU dictatorships along the eastern front and Germany, who did not wait for Donald to leave and has built trade liaisons with Russia and China.

Remember when the news was just five minutes of simple headlines? Walter Cronkite would be astonished!

Ancient Mariner

[1] For those curious why the magnetic field flips, it is caused by the Earth’s iron core rotating at a different speed than surface layers of the planet. Eventually what can be represented as static electricity disrupts the magnetic balance – just like lightning or touching something while walking in your socks across the rug. Unlike the instantaneousness of lightning, the mass of the entire Earth acts like a capacitor, slowing the change to thousands of years.

[2] ZAY-nep tuu-FEK-chee) is a sociologist and writer. Her work focuses on the social implications of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence and big data.