Exciting Times Ahead

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A new study uses artificial intelligence to find that jobs done by highly skilled workers are the most likely to be affected by AI. AI is likely to hit hardest at a combination of leading tech hubs and older manufacturing regions. Exposed are high-skill jobs like professional, scientific and technical services, information, finance and insurance. [CITYLAB] See:

https://www.citylab.com/life/2019/11/ai-skill-jobs-work-automation-brookings/602272/?utm_source=newsletter&silverid=%25%25RECIPIENT_ID%25%25&utm_campaign=citylab-daily-newsletter&utm_medium=email

As climate change, economic change and cultural change make disasters more severe, researchers say we can prepare by being informed, volunteering, and staying socially connected. The glue that provides survival and confidence even in the worst of times is not wealth or separatism, it is bonding with one another; it is sharing and caring; it is ‘having one another’s back.’ Daily life already is tumultuous but quickly financial and personal wellbeing will be challenged in ways that truly may interrupt life’s familiar traditions.

Generally speaking, there will be many jobless families; research shows job loss will grow to half the known jobs that exist today – by as soon as 2035. Further, weather patterns are shifting to a degree that agricultural economics around the world are in peril year by year; finally, even the American political dream is at risk as a dysfunctional government lies unprepared for a vastly different and burdensome situation. By 2050 and beyond, climate change will not help as millions of people around the planet lose their homes to sea rise.

There are many things citizens can do to prepare for a perfect storm of change. Foremost, every citizen must realize immediately that identity politics is deadly. Citizens must do a 180° turn and begin relating to others in supportive ways instead of with conflicting prejudice. It is a notable sensation to look at others through a sympathetic eye instead of an eye of judgment. Togetherness will be needed to survive tension as resistant as a tug-of-war.

There is one bright spot available: the Green New Deal (GND). Almost as exactly as FDR’s tax inversion and his WPA make-work projects pulled the US out of a deadly depression, GND will generate new jobs that don’t exist today. GND covers every definition of infrastructure from new bridges to new Internet to high speed trains to a new power grid and anything else the reader can imagine that needs to be invented, upgraded or implemented. GND will take at least a decade, most likely closer to two decades.

The problem is a republican-controlled US Senate. Speaking as clinically and as intellectually as possible, mariner suggests the Republican Party is the last vestige of a government from the previous century. There is no other way to say it. If the US will be prepared to assist its citizens, it cannot become so until an overturn of the US Senate and the conservative wing of red states. The first chance for this to happen is 2020. If the Senate is not overturned, the citizens must wait, as gathering cultural and economic storms swirl about, until 2024. (2024 is only eleven years before 2035.)

Even if the US Senate is overturned, there are so many inefficiencies, abuses to citizens and economic thievery that the government itself must be reformed. Mariner has pointed this out in many past posts; visit the politics archive if the reader is interested.

It would be a mistake to sit and wait for the government to morph itself into something useful. Unlike identity politics, racism, elitism and all the other self-important isms, sympathy and empathy can stretch a long way to accommodate hardships that aren’t anyone’s fault in particular but which cannot be ignored. Mariner suggests his standby – continuously look for opportunities to pass it forward; practice makes perfect.

Tithing fits in today’s situation. Imagine if everyone put 10% of their time into good works for neighbors, strangers and the needy. If everyone practiced this way, the cost of living through these times could be reduced by $billions! The alley behind mariner’s home is gravel. A neighbor has taken it upon himself to maintain the alley in excellent condition. Two things: bite one’s tongue painfully every time one has a judgmental thought and

Pass it forward.

Ancient Mariner

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A Nation of the Corporations, by the Corporations and for the Corporations

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֎ Seattle, home town of Amazon, had an election recently in which Amazon spent over $1.5 million in campaign spending in an attempt to seat a seven member Council with pro-business candidates. Amazon’s issue was a ballot initiative that rejects Amazon’s personally managed contribution (tax) to housing for Seattle that would clear the way for government taxation. Amazon was able to seat only two candidates and was unable to defeat Kshama Sawant, a pro-labor city council member who is a thorn in the side of corporation-managed “tax” levies. It turns out corporate influence on ballot measures is a nationwide issue. Corporations are willing to contribute to housing programs only in an effort to provide employee housing, not housing where it may be needed most and, of course, they can change the amount whenever they choose. Ideologically, only governments (Congress) can pass tax legislation. Interesting article. See: https://www.citylab.com/equity/2019/11/tech-corporate-political-campaign-donations-elections-pac/601423/?utm_campaign=citylab-daily-newsletter&utm_medium=email&silverid=%25%25RECIPIENT_ID%25%25&utm_source=newsletter

OTHER HOUSING NOTES

֎ 13 years of homeownership.   A new analysis from the real estate brokerage firm Redfin shows the typical homeowner in the United States now stays in their house for 13 years. That’s five years more than they did in 2010. This lack of movement, especially among aging baby boomers, has created inventory shortages and pushed up prices. According to Redfin and the housing data firm CoreLogic, Salt Lake City, Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio and Dallas are the cities with the longest median homeowner stays, all more than two decades. [Wall Street Journal]

֎ Apple pledges $2.5 billion to combat California’s housing crisis [NPR]

֎ Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, 40 out of 68 city firefighters need a second job to pay the rent.

֎ Between 2000 and 2015 the U.S. produced 7.3 million fewer homes than it needed to keep up with demand and population growth.

֎ National Association of Home Builders estimates builders will build about 900,000 new homes in 2018—400,000 short of what’s needed to keep up with population growth. Their big talking point: Build up, not out.

The housing battle across the nation is growing rapidly. Still, NIMBYs and corporations are able to influence local government’s attempts to use taxes to at least level the issue across income classes. Frequently this battle is waged in ballot initiatives. When the reader votes, make sure to read and understand the full ballot.

Ancient Mariner

The World We Live In

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֎ Internet service providers like Comcast and Verizon are free to slow down, block or prioritize internet traffic as they wish, without interference by the federal government. That’s the effect of an October ruling by the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, upholding a 2017 ruling by the Federal Communications Commission that reversed rules requiring what is called “net neutrality” – treating all internet traffic equally, regardless of where it’s from or what kind of data it is. See:

https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/cities-and-states-take-up-the-battle-for-an-open-internet?utm_campaign=citylab-daily-newsletter&utm_medium=email&silverid=%25%25RECIPIENT_ID%25%25&utm_source=newsletter

֎ In the lush foothills of central Kentucky, Berea seems like your average small, private college, down to its stately brick buildings and its inspiring school anthem. Berea College has not been collecting tuition from students since 1892. All its students are poor.

Also in Kentucky, move about a hundred miles east to another college in the tiny town of Pippa Passes – . Alice Lloyd College. Alice Lloyd doesn’t charge tuition either. Berea was wise enough to start an endowment in 1852 which is worth $1.2 billion today; dividends pay tuition. Alice Lloyd depends on fundraising and a stiffer commitment from professors asking them to carry heavier instruction loads. [NPR]

֎ 800 million jobs

Automation, algorithms, and artificial intelligence already have reduced the amount of human labor in specialty manufacturing, warehouse parcel delivery and resume screening. But a new report from analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates the rise of automation could make up to 800 million jobs — nearly half of all jobs worldwide — obsolete by 2035. [Yahoo Finance]

֎ Angioplasty — was measurably better than pills at reducing patients’ chest pain during exercise. But the study, called ISCHEMIA, found no difference in a constellation of major heart-disease outcomes, including cardiac death, heart attacks, heart-related hospitalizations and resuscitation after cardiac arrest. There was no benefit to an invasive strategy in people without chest pain.

Overall, the keenly anticipated ISCHEMIA study results suggest that invasive procedures, stents and bypass surgery, should be used more sparingly in patients with stable heart disease and the decision to use them should be less rushed, experts said.

֎ Incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) overcame a tough challenge from the President Trump-backed businessman Eddie Rispone to be re-elected Louisiana governor to a second term late Saturday.

Why it matters: The tight race pit the only Democratic governor in the Deep South against a Republican challenger in Trump country. The result is a major blow for Trump, who tried to drum up support for Rispone at two presidential rallies in Louisiana this month and in tweets leading up to the vote. [AP]

֎ Presidential hopeful and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has soared to the top of the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll of 2020 Democratic candidates, released Saturday evening.

The big picture: The poll shows he’s the first choice for 25% of caucus-goers polled, with a 9-point lead over his closest rival, Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Buttigieg also topped a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday, where he’s the favored candidate among 22% of those surveyed.

֎ Chicago’s homeless public school students will now have a chance to work with advocates helping them stay in school and find housing resources.

In October, Chicago public school teachers went on strike demanding smaller class sizes and additional staff. But, as Newsy reported, teachers also wanted administrators to address homelessness, which affects 17,000 Chicago students.

Chicago joins Boston as one of the two largest school districts in the country that addresses student homelessness in labor contracts. Jackson Potter teaches history and is part of the Chicago Teachers Union bargaining team. He has seen firsthand how homelessness impacts students. [Newsy]

Somehow, many issues are based on housing. This is something that only government – state and federal – can address. Private enterprise will be led by profit.

Ancient Mariner

 

A Nation Coming Apart

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Mariner finds this letter to subscribers a very important and astute perspective of the state of the nation at this point in history. There are so many imminent, huge shifts in every aspect of the world’s situation. The US is vulnerable to life changing circumstances that may end the nation as we know it.

This topic is carried out in detail in the forthcoming The Atlantic Magazine.

This is not an advertisement but a tribute to the goals of a first class magazine.

 

A Nation Coming Apart

Jeffrey Goldberg

Editor in Chief, The Atlantic

The 45th president of the United States is uniquely unfit for office and poses a multifaceted threat to our country’s democratic institutions. Yet he might not represent the most severe challenge facing our country. The structural failures in our democratic system that allowed a grifter into the White House in the first place—this might be our gravest challenge. Or perhaps it is the tribalization of our politics, brought about by pathological levels of inequality, technological and demographic upheaval, and the tenacious persistence of racism. Or maybe it is that we as a people no longer seem to know who we are or what our common purpose is.

This dispiriting moment was the backdrop, and the impetus, for The Atlantic’s new special issue, what we have called “How to Stop a Civil War.” We don’t believe that conditions in the United States today resemble those of 1850s America. But we worry that the ties that bind us are fraying at alarming speed—we are becoming contemptuous of each other in ways that are both dire and possibly irreversible.

By edict of our founders, The Atlantic is meant to be the magazine of the American idea. In November 1857, when our first issue was published, the American idea was besieged by the forces of slavery. The Atlantic, then as now, stood for American unity, but it also stood for the idea that America is by its nature both imperfect and ultimately perfectible. The untiring pursuit of a more perfect union is at the core of the American idea.

When I discussed the notion of this issue with the editors of our print magazine, we reached the conclusion that any Atlantic journalism confronting questions of American unity and fracture would have to be both analytical and prescriptive, and would require the services of some of America’s best writers and thinkers.

– – – –

In addition to the printed magazine, see: https://www.theatlantic.com/

If one could move out to space far enough and could unfold the planet into some kind of Mercator map, the colors of war, dissent, economic instability, cultural decline and global warming would obscure the continents and the oceans with the tumultuous colors of an explosion.

Indeed these are not normal times; the scope is hard to document in daily news. One characteristic of the Internet is that nations aren’t really isolated by distance or geography. What happens in the many places of the globe immediately affects the many places of the globe.

At the moment, the United States suffers the incompetence of a president who is no more than a symptom of deep-rooted conflict that has quickly eroded the essence of Americanism – so much so, it may not be reparable in its traditional perception.

In the US, we must stop focusing on hoarding pennies and elitism and turn our focus to the horizon. Consider the planet similar to the California and Australian fires; except that it is not forests being destroyed, it is humanity.

The black plague from 1347 to 1351, just 4 years, killed over 20 million people and changed society in the western world. This is a similar time – a global crisis that so far has not drawn together a global team that can avoid disaster. Many nations prefer to contribute to the mayhem with parochial, destructive priorities that are irrelevant to the future of the human species.

Ancient Mariner

Can Sovereignty be returned to the Citizen?

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It was the great experiment: a nation without a king; a nation without a military junta; a nation of self-rule by its citizens. The history of the United States frequently has shown that the Republic can falter. Each recovery is slightly different, provoking new interpretations of a democratic republic.

War certainly disrupts democracy. To name just a few nation-changing wars: Revolutionary War, War of 1812, Civil War, both World Wars, and the Viet Nam War. There are economic conflicts that affect democracy: The Panic of 1785 – 88 was an economic expansion that went bust when Great Britain would not participate in trade. The result was a stronger government that could influence economic parameters. The Panic of 1796 – 97 was strikingly similar to the recession of 2008, a collapse of real estate values and over extended banks. Many folks are still alive who remember the Great Depression of 1929 – 33.

At the end of these recessions and many others, legislation was passed that made the federal government less responsive directly to citizens in order for the government to maintain control of the economy. During the Reagan administration in the 1980s, the economic policy shifted to encouraging private enterprise and investment. As of today, the economic imbalance between rich and poor, salary constraint and diminishing labor stability are major issues.

Other changes associated largely with increased population and manipulated representation have distorted permanently the idea of one citizen, one vote such that not everyone has a vote, not every vote is equal and the subsequent reality often doesn’t reflect the voters’ intent.

Social abuses, most often financial disparities and less than patriotic treatment of citizens of every stripe creates strongly defined classes which, when the nation is under duress, quickly splinter national unity.

Finally, great shifts in agriculture, weather, science and technology throw society off balance. These changes are slow to move and often are subtle and ignored until the impact is troublesome. Establishment seems not capable of solving the issues of a changed ‘sovereign’ nation.

The democratic citizen has not held the reins of sovereignty for a long time.

– – – –

It took half a century, suffragettes, significant labor conflict, two wars and an almost fatal depression to change the nation from what it was in 1900 to what it became in 1950. (‘nation’ means the whole kit and caboodle: how and why the government operates, the culture, economy and international role) In 1900 citizens bought the first automobiles and by 1950 they bought the first televisions. During that span the internal combustion engine launched the fossil fuel era.

From 1950 to 2000 (with the exception of the Kennedy presidency – which was stopped by three assissinations) the nation grew conservative in the face of the cold war, the Korean Conflict and the Viet Nam War. The stresses of a changing world were evident in McCarthyism, young people rioting at the Democratic Convention and, with the effort to pass the Civil Rights Act, conflict became physical between races; cities were looted and burned. Four college students were killed by the National Guard. Labor unions were targeted by conservative state governments. During the 1960’s the pressure of change erupted like a volcano.

By the 1980’s the national philosophy had begun to shift from strength in unity to strength in money – from labor and manufacturing to investment and corporatism. Riding a global wave of economic success during the 1990’s put aside issues of uncertainty among citizens and further exacerbated the stressed culture by starting wars in the Middle East. Old political conflicts from the cold war emerged again.

It would take literally a new generation of citizens who had no historical ties to the twentieth century before issues of a troubled society came to the forefront. The twentieth century Establishment had stayed too long. The government was trying to keep a dead horse on its feet. Quickly, populism emerged and Donald Trump was elected.

– – – –

Time is long overdue for an exercise to reconstruct what can pass as some version of the great experiment. The decades of delay have created many pieces lying about which must be fitted back together, very much like trying to figure out a complex tangram. One piece is lexicon. The verbal conflict is full of words that have changed nuance or even are no longer useful; many new words did not exist in 2000 that reflect a faster moving world society. What do conservatives mean when they espouse capitalism? Or socialism used by liberals? Another piece, since the beginning, is race. The nuance has changed even since the 1990’s.

Other pieces include privacy, security, voting parity, term limits, health, job, salary, taxation, financial and corporate regulation, dysfunctional lobbying and fund raising, foreign policy, freedom, equality, newly defined infrastructure, artificial intelligence, housing, environment, and not last, international economy. All these pieces must become a unified whole if new generations are to sustain the great experiment.

It is easy to define pieces but hard to define the tool that will reassemble the pieces. It is hard to define the tool because the tool is every every every American citizen. Forty-seven percent voting is not every American. The nation is not a set of Lego blocks that snap together. It is a viscous, surging mass that must continually adjust. Imagine a huge flock of birds soaring in the sky; each and every bird is constantly adjusting its own path to assure the flock remains whole otherwise predators will be able to focus on individual, vulnerable birds. Mariner suggests that already other nations are lurking closely, eager to kill the great experiment.

At the personal level, where one talks with family, friends and associates, there is an attitude that can be expressed by letting them know that their right to believe what they believe is an American right not allowed in most of the world and “regardless of differences, always know I have your back if you need me.” Mariner has used that sentence with great success. Unity is the goal.

Ancient Mariner

 

Life Today is not your Father’s Life

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In a recent post mariner cited many daily tasks that, in earlier times, were not automated as they are today; the reader may remember the reference to darning socks. These tasks took time, sometimes inordinate time, just to accomplish a day in one’s life. In the post, it was relatively easy to speculate on the differences in the industrial world and in daily materialism expedited by technology. What is more important both to self and to society is what twenty-first century speed has done to core values like religion and cultural ethos.

For Christians and sophists, has the reader ever read the Holy Bible cover to cover? If so, the reader is a rare individual. How long has it been since a Book in the Bible has been reread or a thread of parables has been revisited?

Do not chastise one’s self. It is how one must live in a time when the number of daily decisions and events is continuous compared to the recent life even of one’s parents. Further, via the Internet and satellite technology, today one’s decisions virtually affect many more lives and many more circumstances and immediately influence an entire world’s knowledge of reality. Simply turning on a television launches the marketing world into action.

It is hard to imagine a life when large amounts of daily time passed and there were no conversations, no interactive decisions and no interaction with society. It wasn’t so long ago; it was the life of a significant number of folks just seventy years ago. There was both time and need to belong to simple gatherings with people one didn’t see every day; the church picnic was an important event; specialized clubs existed to expand interests and share experiences: stamp club, coin club, knitting club, garden club, etc. There were service organizations like the Lions, the Masons and the Shriners.

True, many of these organizations still exist. However, in the past these groups were the main event in socialization, politics and religion – not to mention friendship, courtship and extended family visits during the holidays. Reunions were a central event. All these interactive examples suffer today. Church attendance has fallen mightily; the club phenomenon has been replaced by social media; special interests have moved from clubs to search engines. Vacant time that once was used for the chores of daily life has been replaced by time with the television, the Internet and the smartphone. Who needs to have actual face time with other people? There just isn’t time. Easier to turn on Facebook.

– – – –

What has this fast world done to one’s personal religion? Religion is the place where one becomes a member of the universe; it is an internal, personal experience that comes from believing not in the transactional world of electronics but in a world driven by love, emotion, compassion and respect for all that exists. It is the one true experience that makes one feel valuable in spite of worldly circumstances or a dead device battery.

There are many visions about religion and there are many religions. How does one truncate these beliefs into a straightforward, functional, brief but important part of the fast world?

As noted, public ritual, clubs and gatherings are not as central to society as they were in the earlier years of the last century. Yet these persons-to-persons activities are necessary for a wholesome life. Thumb punching and finger scrolling may be a successful distraction that does not require management of ethos, ethics, human bonding or even civility but most of the human brain exists to interpret meaningful and rewarding relationships – not with video games but with other humans.

If one were able to throw all the virtues of modern religions into a kettle and boil them down to a hearty stock, it likely would be rich in compassion. Compassion is the opposite of identity politics and tribalism. On the ground in everyday life, the current political, belligerent experience is caustic; prejudice breeds prejudice; fragmentation breeds elitism, racism and school shootings. It seems conflict is not a creative force.

Everyone knows that populism is strictly a destructive force. Its objective is to disrupt, damage and even destroy a conflicted social situation. But it is not populism’s job to restore. Populism exists purely in a transactional world, i.e., tit for tat, my way or the highway, this way only, dissidents are useless criminals (“Lock her up!”).

The prescription for curing transactional conflict is to make unity the first value. Unity is a religion word. Society’s job today is to uncover and elevate what is common among even the most contraposed individuals or groups. An individual human creature cannot be separated from eons of planetary life and environment. Humans are humans living the same reality, sharing the same three dimensions, sharing the same universe-given resources.

Even in unity’s simplest form, courtesy, one can sense personal comfort – that an individual has the confidence, perspective and commitment to be courteous even in the midst of consternation. Unity is a religion word.

Pass it forward.

Ancient Mariner

 

AI

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Mariner doesn’t know how to say this but . . . Donald’s base is wiser than most of the US citizenry. The base understands the future and is trying its best to thwart it – in the nation’s behalf as well.

Every world citizen should view the latest FRONTLINE presentation on Artificial Intelligence (AI). It won’t be idle entertainment and it takes a couple of hours. But the reader’s existence in the future is revealed.

Click https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/in-the-age-of-ai/ . Pay attention, think, stay awake – it isn’t a sit-com.

Ancient Mariner

The link between evolvement, anthropology, romance and politics

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“Mariner has alluded in the past to the difference between Chimpanzees and Bonobos (essentially the same as Chimpanzees). Chimpanzees have some aggressive genes because during their evolutionary era food and space were an issue in northern Africa but the Bonobos lived in southern Africa during an era of plentiful food and space. Bonobos chill; Chimpanzees find reasons to be contentious.” (Post – Of Mice, Men and Power Aug 29 2018)

Also, bonobos live in a matriarchal society whereas chimpanzees live in a patriarchal society. In both groups, males are free to mate any female in estrus unless intercepted by a dominate male. Also in both groups, females are known to have an occasional rendezvous on the side – an evolutionary compulsion to sustain a strong genome. Unpleasantly, the males of human ancestors, the chimps, every once in a while will go on a rampage waging war with other breeds of monkeys brutally killing and eating them.

Making a left turn here, could populism be related to a chimpanzee rampage? The ethics are the same: take no prisoners. Presumably the behavior both in chimps and in humans is provoked by a situation that suggests something has to be done. Organized military action doesn’t seem to fit; war is planned and organized and seeks a worthy goal. Populism, however, seems to fit like a glove.

This correlation explains the disregard Donald’s base has for his behavior. When advocates are asked why they tolerate his many shortcomings, they simply say, “He’s doing what we want him to do” – take no prisoners and drain the swamp not of ne’er do wells but of establishmentarians, a different breed of monkey for sure.

Making another turn away from anthropology and considering the sociological phenomenon called populism, one may ask a number of questions:

What is populism?

History tends to remember populism as an angry crowd of dissenters who finally revolt, similar to the chimp rampage. Populism is more than an angry crowd; it is a symptom within a culture that reflects disarray and instability. Members of the culture begin to feel insecure and attempt to protect themselves from uncontrolled or unknown circumstances. Insecurity affects the entire culture. For example, political parties become combative rather than collaborative; religion loses inclusivity and replaces it with exclusivity; neighborhoods become reclusive and class conscious; hoarding of money and possessions is more important; individuals seek like-minded others and tend to form large cliques; ethos is replaced with transactional values.

In the realm of culture and politics, this behavior is known as identity politics. It continues to grow in hostility as the culture becomes less supportive.

What causes populism?

Anxiety. Not necessarily the surface, immediately felt anxiety but rather the deep, often unarticulated awareness that things aren’t well. Speaking to the US populist movement, the fact that salaries have dragged behind inflation for four decades threatens family solvency; many labor class workers can no longer afford what most would call a normal, satisfying life. This threat to family solvency has created a sense of crisis.

A notable benchmark was when the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) passed in 1993 and significant numbers of factory jobs began to move to Mexico and Canada. Since then, automation and international corporatism have added to the job/salary decline. Other factors that will cause populism: “We went to school, worked hard, followed the rules and now we’re unemployed.” Or, “The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.”

Another motive is that public support, access to medical and other services have become more difficult to deal with, and the social structure in general has shifted (for example the middle class is splitting in two with the lower half drifting into poverty). And another is corruption. Finally, a dysfunctional government, state or federal, leaves a feeling in individuals of being left out and unimportant. In the United States at the moment all these causes are in play.

How can we stop populism?

The causes of the current populist movement have been building for some time. This time it is not a matter of disgruntlement or a single segment of society; a good analogy would be a major hurricane. Repairing each one of the causes listed in the last few paragraphs will take years of restructuring. The solutions are not simply reparation through better salaries, ethical control over corporations and voting in a new government. Things are so bad today that fixes must be included that prevent further damage.

Some repairs are more urgent than others:

The macroeconomic model must be remodeled completely; the US has become a plutocracy – the rich run the government.

The social safety net must be reset to support massive job loss as artificial intelligence becomes implemented.

Taxes, benefits, health, and other institutional services must be supported strongly to assure functionality in the immediate future.

Society in an automated age will be strange to most citizens; extreme swings in wealth and opportunity as well swings in poverty and deprivation will occur. Effort to constrain these swings is necessary using taxes and guaranteed income.

Democratic processes must be restored to fair and meaningful representation for a population that has outgrown the image of an evenly dispersed population perceived in 1787.

In short, populism will be with US citizens for a long time.

Finally, the bogey man: climate change.

US readers should be glad they live in a democratic nation. There are eight western nations with populist uprisings; the authoritarian nations aren’t having it as well as the democratic ones.

Ancient Mariner

 

It’s a Fifty State Election, er, Six State Election

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Don’t listen to the gossip on CNN, MSNBC, CBS, etc., nor listen to the scary fake news on Fox and Sinclair-owned stations. Don’t even listen to the cleanest news broadcast NEWSY. Don’t listen because none of these news stations report the reality of state by state polls.
It isn’t a national election. It’s fifty states voting their parochial politics, that is, red states, purple states and blue states. These polls don’t vary much because they are indigenous to state politics, not national politics.
The truth of the matter is the state polls suggest Donald may win again. Eerily, the statistics of favorability are identical to the 2016 election. The presidency may be determined again by the Electoral College where it took only six states to ignore their state-wide popular vote and flip the balance to Donald: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The vote in just a few purple states, which state-by-state polls suggest hasn’t changed much, will determine the next president.
In similar fashion, state polls indicate that only a few switches from republican to democrat are likely in the Senate. Even if democrats secure a majority, it is likely they will not secure 60 Senate seats. Hence, all the progressive plans of the democratic House will die in the Senate.
Every vote is important, of course, but gerrymandering and regional divides between large populations and rural populations will disregard the nonsense that news media puts out every day.
2020 will be another close election.
The impeachment process is highly saturated with politics rather than focusing on the destruction of the Constitution. Donald has used the power of the presidency to dismember the democratic and Constitutional structure of the US – not only by way of administrative confusion but in his promotion of Russian and Saudi interests – as well as his own pocket. Over the next twenty-five years global power will be redistributed around the world. Every day that Donald is in office weakens US opportunities to participate in that redistribution.
On a similar international slant, the immigration issue, stirred by Donald into a big mess, has distracted futurists from realizing that the US must be aggressive in becoming a political force in Central and South America. Russia already is active on the African continent and China is focusing on everything except perhaps a few European nations. China has targeted Mexico and South American nations adjacent to the Pacific Ocean.
In other words, the US must invest in and “save” its southern neighbors in the Western Hemisphere instead of issuing inhumane and divisive policies based on racism. Frankly, such an investment may be a less expensive way to resolve immigration issues and may be more effective than Donald’s wall.
Ancient Mariner

Turtles are lucky

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Mariner tosses a few statistics:

-What cost $1 in 1980 costs $3.12 in 2019.
-The average salary in 1980 was $12,513; in 2019 the average is $41,951.

Given these two statistics, everything seems copacetic. $1 in wages in 1980 equals $3.35 in 2019. Yet today there seems to be economic unrest among the citizens. What these statistics belie is the fact that, adjusted for inflation, salaries are flat while the cost of living has increased dramatically.

One element is housing. The average inflation rate per year from 1980 to 2019 was 2.94%. Housing inflation per year rose by 3.09%. A house that cost $100,000 in 1980 costs $327,118 in 2019. Salaries however did not rise in accordance with housing inflation. Rents increased as rapidly; double and even triple occupancy is a common experience. The chart below covers the years from 1997 to 2013. It is a good pictorial to show the relationship – which continues to this day.

The number of students in kindergarten through the 12th grade who are homeless has increased by 70 percent over the last decade according to new federal data that also suggests it shows no signs of slowing.

Homeless in College: Students sleep in cars and on couches when they have nowhere else to go.

A survey of nearly 86,000 students taken last fall by The Hope Center for College, Community and Justice found that homelessness affected 18% of respondents attending two-year colleges, and 14% of those attending four-year institutions. The number who said they had experienced housing insecurity, such as difficulty paying rent, was much higher, at 60%, among those attending two-year schools, and at 48% for those enrolled in four-year institutions.

Unsheltered homelessness—spending the night in places not meant for sleeping, such as vehicles, parks, streets, or abandoned buildings—rose for the third consecutive year. From 2017 to 2018, there was a 2 percent increase in people living in unsheltered locations. There was a moderate increase in unsheltered homelessness among families with children and a large increase in unsheltered homelessness among adults ages 25 and older. Not counted in these statistics is the large number of young adults forced to live in their parents’ home.

The issue is that, given inflation, salaries have not kept up with housing inflation and new construction is static; young adults, whether in college or not, cannot meet the demands of inflated housing costs. Further, affording a home is disappearing for increasing numbers of the middle class. And if that imbalance is not enough, more than 13 million Americans could become climate refugees as sea-level rise comes to pass.

Housing is in a state of crisis. Not just the traditional lack of housing for the poor but a national shortage of affordable places to live because income has not kept up. This is truly critical for cities where there are jobs: the salaries are insufficient to find a place to live near jobs not by a few dollars but by thousands.

Mariner suggests this may be the major political issue for the next decade. It is complex, economically imbalanced and has devastating effects on citizens who otherwise would be living normal, home-centered lives. Given its higher inflation rate, housing has become an important investment. Multiple family housing is fought tooth and nail by the NIMBYs (Not in my backyard). Zoning and lock-down property standards issued by HOAs (Home Owner Associations) make it difficult to solve suburban issues.

As to the turtles, they inherit a permanent home for life.

Ancient Mariner