Category Archives: Economy

About Baby Boomers

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Some excerpts from The Atlantic magazine:

“Unlike younger generations, they [boomers] have largely been able to walk a straightforward path toward prosperity, security, and power. They were born in an era of unprecedented economic growth and stability. College was affordable, and they graduated in a thriving job market. They were the first generation to reap the full benefits of a golden age of medical innovations: birth control, robotic surgery, the mapping of the human genome, effective cancer treatments, Ozempic.

… “But recent policy changes are poised to make life significantly harder for Baby Boomers. “If you’re in your 60s or 70s, what the Trump administration has done means more insecurity for your assets in your 401(k), more insecurity about sources of long-term care, and, for the first time, insecurity about your Social Security benefits,

… “even those with more financial assets may depend on Social Security as a safety net. It’s important to understand that many seniors, even upper-income seniors, are just one shock away from falling into poverty,

… ”Middle-income seniors are also likely to feel the impact of a volatile market. “They tend to have modest investments and fixed incomes rather than equities, so that is the type of wealth that will erode over a high-inflation period,”

… “In the near future, older Americans might find themselves paying more for medical care too. Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” which has passed in the House but awaits a vote in the Senate, would substantially limit Medicare access for many documented immigrants, including seniors who have paid taxes in the United States for years. The bill would also reduce Medicaid enrollment by about 10.3 million people.”

Mariner remembers when most factory jobs provided a full retirement until the Reagan administration deleted the legislation requiring businesses to do so. He remembers full college tuition for veterans. He remembers when unions had equal political clout to corporations. Viewing those special decades, they really were the peak of good times for workers.

Mariner already posted about the sucking of cash out of the American economy and being stuffed into jammed pockets of the wealthy class. Systemically, this leaves less cash in the public square. More than ever, pay down credit card debt; balance the family budget; don’t gamble; sit down with the family and pretend there has been a ‘cash crash’ – what items, activities and utility-based costs can be reduced or eliminated? Don’t extend long term debt to get by today.

1970 is no longer around.

Ancient Mariner

 

About the Gen Zs

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The Gen Z generation is comprised of children born between 1997 and 2012 or today aged 13 to 28. A number of polls and an associated study have been performed by Walton Family Foundation focused primarily on expectations for the future and the degree for discerning possible career routes. Some general observations:

⊗ High school students primarily trust their parents for guidance about their futures after graduation but also rely heavily on teachers and other school resources.

⊗ Parents are having limited postsecondary conversations, particularly about alternatives to college or a paid job.

⊗ Gen Zs and their parents know relatively little about most postsecondary options.

⊗ Schools are an important resource for postsecondary guidance, but they are not adequately informing or preparing many students.

⊗ Despite limited knowledge and conversations, many Gen Z students are at least somewhat interested in non-college alternatives.

⊗ Most high school students, including seniors, do not feel prepared to pursue their preferred pathway.

Some statistics:

⊗ One in four high school students feel very prepared to succeed in college or
apply for a job, and those who don’t plan to pursue higher education are notably less
optimistic and prepared than their peers.

⊗ 47% of parents — including about one-third of parents of high school seniors — say they are not frequently discussing post graduation plans with their child.

⊗ Only 15% to 25% of parents know a great deal about any other postsecondary option besides college and paid salary positions.

  The plight of Gen Z is like a fish knowing where to go in muddy water. Their useless government is bouncing into a dictatorship; education has been underfunded for decades and does little to prepare a student for the real world; career jobs are not only scarce, whole industries are disappearing in the arts, white color desk jobs, and iterative labor industries like factory work and truck driving; the economy is definitely in trickle down mode. Property in Hawaii is being bought up by billionaires – local citizens are being forced to migrate; job tenure is no guarantee for fringe benefits.

In 1938 the minimum wage was begun at $1.00/hour. Had the minimum wage kept up with inflation, the minimum wage would be $22.35. Today it is $7.25. If the U.S. doesn’t end up as a dictatorship, it definitely will be an oligarchy – with the help of computers.

A Gen Z stands looking across the horizon of this battered society and has to wonder, “What is my role?” . . . “What is there to believe in for a lifetime?” . . . “How will I survive?”

Smoking among Gen Z has been dropping for the last several years; Gen Z are beginning to trade in smartphones for flip phones; marriage and children are being delayed. The future is hitting them in the face.

The ‘ocean of life’ looks pretty stormy right now.

Ancient Mariner

 

We all need new top down awareness

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Especially the world’s governments but that’s another story.

Even more important is that you, me and every individual around the globe must stop living by the daily ethics of life that may have been true forty years ago. Computers are no longer smart typewriters and no longer fantastic libraries; computer technology has created a subhuman species capable of telling us what we should know and what to think. In a few years, computers, as our medical advisors and primary care physicians, will decide whether you continue to live or not. What is scary is that computers already think for themselves – technicians no longer solve ethical positions. Today a majority of stock market trades never see a human mind. Who tells you the truth – Mom or the smartphone?

We must cast aside the romantic image of farming as a rural life style with cute lambs and mooing cows and amber waves of grain and purple mountain majesties above a fruited plain. Worldwide we keep clearing to make room for more farms to make more food. The image of a romantic farm should be replaced by the relentless spread of crops and pastures that already cover two of every five acres of land on Earth, obliterating the wild landscapes that soak up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.  Further, it is propelling the worst extinction since an asteroid wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago..

We must look beyond a world made of nations. Any nation, including the US and China, is incapable on its own to stabilize industrial development, international supply chains, artificial intelligence, humanitarian obligations and, importantly – open warfare. At the least, smaller nations, especially in Africa and the Middle East, must adopt a model similar to the European Union. On a global scale, it is time to make war less important than management of the planet and all its human disasters. It is time for one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all – including Mother Earth. It is time for the United Nations to be authorized as the ethical authority – including the right to wage international war.

The ethics of human society must leave behind the age of nationally defined variations of humans; it is of no consequence whether Italian, Brazilian, South African, Indian, Polish, Chinese . . . The issue is eight billion humans and growing. There are only two choices: let the population grow until there is a tragic, horrible collapse of controlled civilization, or take control of birthrates. Sardonically, computers may help us with the population issue. The Dixie style of birth control is simplistic. The following is an extract from a post mariner wrote last April:

“A tremendous change occurred with the industrial revolution: whereas it had taken all of human history until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in 30 years (1960), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987).

  • During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion.
  • In 1970, there were roughly half as many people in the world as there are now.”

Immediately, one grasps the idea that population and natural resources are the two issues that can’t remain under control given the ethical image we carry from the 1970’s. So, are we willing to go the way of the dinosaurs using our homemade asteroid or will humans have the wherewithal to live according to a new top down awareness?

Ancient Mariner

 

 

 

Old folks are like annuals.

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The advantage of living in Nosey Mole’s tunnels is that it is quiet. The environment is stable and unchanging. Just as once in a while Nosey pokes his head above ground to check on things, so to has mariner. But they are brief moments to check that normalcy prevails around the tunnels.

What mariner sees is his small town. True, normalcy seems to prevail; citizens are living lives within the scope of normalcy, all the houses are still there and the pleasures of electricity, water and labor-saving inventions prevail. But what mariner perceives as normalcy across his lifetime no longer exists.

For folks born in the 1930s and 1940’s, the world of the 21st century is not ‘normal’. The big war ended while these folks were still young. What emerged was an era of bright sunshine, happiness and stable family life. Things like amusement parks, movie theaters and shopping districts were every day outings. Pleasantness often pushed the realities of existence aside. True, the realities of haves and have-nots existed but what was different was the sunshine. It seemed brighter. When the Sun rose in the morning, it was a new day to be experienced.

The first disruption to the sunshine was the Viet Nam war which, in hindsight, was the first sign of imbalance in the world’s political/economic situation. Now there are clouds in the sky – clouds that are omens of change and disruption. In mariner’s town, the sixties were the last years of a town-centric economy, a bustling social environment and a self-contained feeling of living in the sunshine.

Clouds gathered over the next twenty years then Reagan introduced cold weather. Those war-years folks weren’t at the center of society anymore. Unions were forced out of existence, corporations became gigantic but were no longer required to provide full retirement to their employees, democrats became white collar and forgot their roots. Farms became too large to be based on a single family economy. Computers began their march against social dependency.

The first hard frost was the disruption by the virus followed by a withering Congress, then came the age of Trump – the beginning of winter.

The sunshine is gone today. There is no warm, invigorating sunrise. Children of the war years are not indigenous. Culturally, they are withering – even as they continue to live their own reality.

Children of the big war are like annual plants – a life experience that does not extend into the present winter.

Ancient Mariner

Mother Earth ups the ante

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Mariner has harangued his readers about the Armageddon consisting of excessive population, disappearing natural resources, global warming and uncontrolled AI. But Mother Earth has just started to get involved.

In a report from Nature Geoscience –

“North America’s geological core has persisted for billions of years—it’s what scientists call a craton, a massive block of continental rock that withstands the natural recycling system of plate tectonics. Typically, scientists think of cratons as unchanging, nigh on eternal. But new research published on March 28 in Nature Geoscience suggests that a long-lost geological plate may be siphoning rock from the bottom of the North American craton, eroding it from below, right under our feet.

Such a scenario would not be unprecedented—scientists have evidence that the North China craton thinned dramatically millions of years ago—but it would certainly be surprising and intriguing to study in real time. “Cratons are the oldest cores of continents, so they have been sitting near the Earth’s surface for billions of years,” says Claire Currie, a geophysicist at the University of Alberta, who was not involved in the new research. “They’ve persisted through time, so this is quite unusual.”

Mariner could find no projected dates for these events but at some point in the future, the next tectonic shift may turn the Mississippi River into the Mississippi Sea or conversely, The Mississippi Mountains.

Mother Earth’s stash seems unending. Much of Florida and much of the Gulf-facing land in the US will disappear under rising seas; Global warming will disrupt political, economic and environmental conditions that may cause even more famine and unrest among human populations.

Mother Earth wants everyone to know that AI isn’t the only player in the future of us Homos.

Ancient Mariner

Trekking amid Armageddon

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In these days, attempting to live a stable life is like being an empty trashcan in a tornado. All the headlines focus on what “Wanna be a dictator” is doing to the fabric of government; there are large situations like global warming, rational health care, personal civil rights, what schoolchildren will not be taught, the emerging isolationism of each state in the Union, and the precarious ripping apart of economic relationships between democratic nations.

That’s just one whirlwind in the storm. Another whirlwind swirls around the corporate freedom to dissemble independent human behavior and replace it with computerized corporate manipulations of behavior and intervene the interface between humans and genuine reality.

Having one’s own private perspective on how to engage in the community has been diminished and largely replaced by the new town square, Facebook – which is a behavior similar to smartphones, which requires no social intervention at all.

Corporations have automated out of existence places and activities where ‘community’ could be felt and engaged in – places like small storefront businesses, shopping malls, and computerized food services that have a negative effect on restaurants.

Slowly, humanity (in the wealthy nations only, there is no life to be had in poor ones) is being corralled into the world of one of mariner’s benchmark icons, the movie Matrix. The model is identical but Matrix says humans were put into wired coffins, their brains filled with artificial life experience and their bodies were used as batteries for the great “system”

In this reality it is the same model but for different reasons. Smartphones replace the coffins, social control replaces batteries. Remember Zuckerberg’s fantasy about everyone having their own online town? Sort of like the false life of humans in Matrix.

But the Armageddon swirl is closing in. Everyone must now store their personal computer backups on the ‘cloud’. Metaphorically, your smartphone provides verbs, your computer provides nouns. Your computer is no more than a data entry keyboard – sort of like a typewriter but wired to the corporate database.

Mother Nature will step in big time in a few years. Not that it will necessarily make things better; Mother owns the largest corporation – the planet.

Mariner is inclined to go looking for his two ponies and a cart. He has no smartphone, will not store his data in the ‘system’ database and continually searches for ways to shop face-to-face with other humans and to spend cash for purchases. He is a Homo sappien approaching extinction.

Ancient Mariner

More info for peripheral view

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Everyone, around the world in fact, is inundated with the Trump phenomenon. Everyone around the world is troubled that their economics are so vulnerable to disruption. This vulnerability has a broader, peripheral circumstance that can explain this vulnerability: environmental resources are running out – whether they are elements, minerals, biomass, space or the effects of global warming.

As the population post cited, in all of human history, the population reached 1 billion. Then from 1800 to 1987, the population grew by 4 billion. What grew as well was the rate of consumption. Human laissez-faire about consumption is reflected in human treatment of the resources available: The world generates nearly two billion tons of municipal solid waste each year (MSW).  MSW includes trash from companies, buildings, houses, yards, and small businesses. The United States and China lead the way.

Mariner’s wife, a librarian, has a program where she reads stories to preschool children. She brought home a book which, with astounding clarity, demonstrated human disregard for environmental resources. The book is ‘One Little Bag – An Amazing Journey’ by Henry Cole.  All pages are drawings showing a small boy’s affection for his paper bag by always having it at hand for whatever purpose; it is the tale of a little boy who carried his one original lunch bag to school for over 700 lunches even using it to offer a wedding ring to his girlfriend. The pages also show all the industrial steps required to make a paper bag from chopping down the tree to paper manufacture, delivery, etc. One cannot read this simple story without realizing how trashy humans are. What is important is this trashy behavior does not show concern for the more important issue: disappearing resources.

Wastefulness is not limited to MSW. About four or five years ago, mariner watched a TV interview with a Federal Department head (mariner apologizes for forgetting the name). He was an advocate for expanding our ability to sustain natural resources in order to offset the impact of increasing consumption caused by rapid population growth. He addressed many industrial practices and the careless lack of concern by humans who consume large, irreplaceable areas of the environment just for profit or pleasure.

The Department Head went so far as to challenge lawns. “We need the space to grow food! Every bit of space around the home should be dedicated to self sufficiency, to help ease the pressure caused by disappearing food sources.”

It isn’t just food. Trickling through the news today is the concern for how much electricity and water the new computer age consumes. Computers alone have a special shortage in several minerals including Lithium, Cobalt and Zinc. Microsoft has just contracted the use of a nuclear power plant.

Mariner has a personal example: He and his wife maintain bird feeders. Many who offer this service find it invaded by squirrels. Mariner disregards this complaint knowing that he and his fellow Homos have leveled the natural environment of the squirrel to build huge, clunky houses, streets, tennis courts and businesses. The least we Homos can do is to be sympathetic to the shortage of food for the squirrel and any other wildlife that may still live here. It is interesting that only Homos need 1,200 square feet for a nest, plus lumber, steel, plastic, electricity, heating fuel, TV, a phone, a garage and two stories. Meanwhile, tigers and elephants are disappearing and wolves can’t live in the Midwest which is their natural environment because Homos will shoot them.

This peripheral information may shed light on why economies are not robust, why food and energy prices continue to rise and why every planet resource is at risk.

Ancient Mariner

 

Democracy

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Mariner called a meeting with the three alter-egos a few days ago. The topic was democracy, though not so much as it is weaponized today. The open question was what situation induces democracy, or inhibits democracy? How do the gears work in the democracy engine?

To be honest, the team had difficulty addressing the topic. In the United States (US) twelve generations have lived under and believed religiously in the political philosophy of democracy. Any substantial thinking is swamped by misperception, rumor, bias and periods when democracy was ignored.

The team used the standard definition of democracy as Wikipedia sees it (links are active should the reader want to delve into specifics):

“Democracy is a form of government in which political power is vested in the people or the population of a state. Under a minimalist definition of democracy, rulers are elected through competitive elections while more expansive or maximalist definitions link democracy to guarantees of civil liberties and human rights in addition to competitive elections.

In a direct democracy, the people have the direct authority to deliberate and decide legislation. In a representative democracy, the people choose governing officials through elections to do so. The definition of “the people” and the ways authority is shared among them or delegated by them have changed over time and at varying rates in different countries. Features of democracy oftentimes include freedom of assembly, association, personal property, freedom of religion and speech, citizenship, consent of the governed, voting rights, freedom from unwarranted governmental deprivation of the right to life and liberty, and minority rights.”

֎ The above description pretty much is a definition of the US Constitution and the Bill of Rights. Amos, the team member who is critical of most human behavior, said “Democracy only works in a perfect world where Earthly bounty is free and available to everyone – otherwise, democracy switches to capitalism. Frankly,” Amos continued, “humans don’t have the self-discipline to sustain a democratic reality.”

As a counterpoint, Nosey Mole, the more conservative member of the team,   immediately proposed the example of the Anabaptist structure as a truer form of democracy saying that it is a one-for-all and all for one democracy with a simple community board of directors and everyone benefits equally in the gross profits of the community.

Guru, the philosophical member of the team corrected Nosey saying the Anabaptist government was a theocracy based on the Christian Bible and did not necessarily follow democratic principles. He added “Democracy only works in small locations where the citizens vote directly on the passage of issues, while in larger expanses many citizens elect one representative to represent them when voting on the issues; that is called a republic.”

Nosey countered, “Well, they don’t need Social Security!”.

Mariner, the romantic naturalist, suggested that democracy is a manifestation of the times, that it is a reaction to a given state of affairs involving population, weather, economics and geographical conditions. “For example”, he said, “the leaders of the newly independent United States suddenly inherited massive amounts of territory, had no established rule over three quarters of the continent, still remembered the authoritarianism of the European Monarchs and suddenly inherited much more wealth than the population of 2.7 million needed. Some form of democracy was their only choice.”

“The Bill of Rights is the weak spot.” Amos said. “It’s a fantasy list of good times that doesn’t mix with natural herd behavior – it’s what benefits the herd that counts, not what benefits the individual.”

Mariner broke in and said, “It’s obvious the team will have to set another meeting to continue this discussion of democracy.”

Ancient Mariner

Info for the reader’s peripheral vision

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The chart above illustrates how world population has changed throughout history.

At the dawn of agriculture, about 8000 B.C., the population of the world was approximately 5 million. Over the 8,000-year period up to 1 A.D. it grew to 200 million (some estimate 300 million or even 600, suggesting how imprecise population estimates of early historical periods can be), with a growth rate of under 0.05% per year.

A tremendous change occurred with the industrial revolution: whereas it had taken all of human history until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in 30 years (1960), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987).

  • During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion.
  • In 1970, there were roughly half as many people in the world as there are now.
  • Because of declining growth rates, it will now take over 200 years to double again.

A necessary part of this post is to read the post ‘Population’ added on October 9, 2023. (Use the search box at the top, hit ‘enter’ After search, if the date is wrong, scroll down) It is a scientific report on rat and mouse population studies, which may be more significant today because of the dip at the top of the chart above. Briefly, as the population became excessive, the mouse society behaved just as humans do today with intensely and brutally defined classes from the untouched ‘wealthy’ mice to the militants, and to the deprived and brutalized underclass.

Information that comes from the planet’s side of things may offer collateral proof of the invasion of Homo sapiens:

• According to a new report from the World Wide Fund For Nature (formerly the World Wildlife Fund), there has been an average 60 percent decline in vertebrate animal species population — you know, like mammals, fish, birds, etc. — between 1970 and 2014. “Earth is losing biodiversity at a rate seen only during mass extinctions,” the report reads. The cause? “Exploding human consumption.” [BBC]

• Today, given the vast prairie between the Mississippi River and Eastern Colorado that existed before Europeans visited, only 1% exists today. Further, as a percentage of all living creatures, only 1% is wildlife.

There are just a few stable nation ‘herds’ left – and none have large populations.

Perhaps many of our political concerns may be influenced by this peripheral view of population. Will the new culture be socialistic? corporately controlled? controlled by survival of the fittest? Or, shudder, will humans fix the population issue by tossing about a few nuclear bombs? The mice in the study didn’t have nuclear bombs so there are no statistics about survival.

Ancient Mariner

 

 

 

Am I important?

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This post is about the issue of self worth. But first, mariner’s comment on trends in automation as presented by Wiley’s desk calendar:

Perhaps the Egyptians had it right all along – hieroglyphics.

 

֎ Having read the USA Today article about how mail was delivered by boat to Lake Geneva residents and how important that was to their sense of community, Mariner came to realize how the shifts in many social confrontations from mail delivery to Social Security, senior citizen support, family security and future job security can challenge a person’s sense of security within themselves. The smartphone, too, exposes the ego to damaging information, conversations and distorts behavioral relations. Even conversations between friends and family, split by defensive opinions, confronts an individual’s self-evaluation.

Humans, despite their self-declared independence from all natural processes, are an anatomical creature that first evolved 300,000 years ago – the first ‘Homo’. Homo is a herding creature – just like cows and sheep and horses and monkeys and fish, etc . Homo is embedded with conscious, subconscious and learned behavior that will, whether desired or not, identify their place in the herd. ‘Herd’ is a desire to associate with others and can be a family, neighborhood, community, region, nation or global population.

Using our peripheral vision, one has a thought that perhaps there are too many people in the United States which causes imbalances in the herd; perhaps one senses that, with all the industrial, technical and agricultural advances since the 16th century, none has provided enough loaves of bread for everyone at the same time. Imbalances in role, privilege and opportunity emerge within the herd that will affect one’s sense of value and place as a member of the herd.

Two tropes are an independent force on the members of the herd: “Survival of the fittest” and “Power corrupts”. These are eccentric behaviors that go beyond their intended role in herd wellbeing and occur when the herd is distressed.

How does one measure their acceptance and satisfaction within the herd?

⇒ Do you have a positive feeling about your role in your family? Do you feel members respect and care about you? Do you feel responsible for their well being? Do you feel that you can respond to their needs?

⇒ Do the people in your daily life, especially your neighbors, show companionship and acceptance? Does your presence (home, dress, community participation) seem to be in accord with the neighborhood?

⇒ Does your income meet your expenses? Do you feel your financial future is sustainable? Be clear about this – is insecurity the result of your behavior or is it the behavior of others? Every herd member owes allegiance to the herd but does the herd treat you accordingly?

⇒ Are you confident about who you are in this world? While the herd is supposed to be a source of survival in difficult times, do you feel you can survive by changing your association with the herd?

⇒ Do you have a satisfactory personal life that has companionship, entertainment through hobbies and group activities?

֎ All these comparisons are built from conscious and subconscious feelings as well as social and financial circumstances. Feel free to engage friends and family to clarify relationships that seem improper. It is important, as well, to take a long look at the herd. Things may be askew for peripheral reasons. Knowing about them may help shape your own survival skills.

The MAGA surge is the result of herd disrespect and abuse over the last forty years. Obviously they feel the herd has not respected their contribution.

Ancient Mariner