A New Economic Model?

Thrice mariner has come across the mention of something called ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ (MMT). He began to research MMT and found it to be in the philosophical realm of economics. The word ‘theory’ means it hasn’t really been tried in large economies. To be simplistic, it states the government owns all money. It uses the money to manage the economy. For example, if everyone doesn’t have a job, the government allocates funds to repair that situation; if inflation begins to rise, the government raises taxes to reduce money in the economy; if there is a market need, the government underwrites the establishment of a solution to satisfy that market.

As a real world example, as mariner writes this post the federal government is preparing to fund rapid development of 5G technology to remain competitive in a new world of scary data sharing. In communist China, this is occurring as well except that it is easier to launch because all industries are beholden to the government in the first place. In the US, a democracy, it is tougher for the federal government to manage private industry, to wit, the giant data tech corporations, especially Facebook which considers its corporation a separate nation.

Again simply, economic power and decision making are transferred from corporations to the government because all money belongs to the government. If a corporation is deviant from government policy, the government can invoke taxes and legal action. MMT is the opposite of corporatism.

MMT has crept into news resources because journalists have been trying to unravel Bernie’s logic behind his vision of the economic future. Turns out he knows Stephanie Kelton, an economics professor at Stony Brook University, who is a famous proponent of Modern Monetary Theory in the US.

Mike Bloomberg’s cable education program about MMT suggests that since Nixon took the US dollar off the gold standard, there is no good way to standardize a dollar’s value to the economy. MMT, in theory, says that if a government owns all money, then decisions can be made based on a universal market value determined by the government.

Being aware as everyone should be that the global economy is showing threadbare spots and wavering under any kind of issue, everyone should be asking “What will be the economic reality for my children?” Hah! Is everyone ready to go back to college? It should be free given the paucity of comprehension and leadership among our elected officials. One certainly needs more education to know how to run this democracy – television news isn’t the answer!

Ancient Mariner

 

 

Of the Moment

It is amazing how fast the economy slows down. The stock market drop is in the news, of course, but it is the retail industries that will take damaging if not fatal blows if the coronavirus spreads into communities. Restaurants, malls, movie houses, bars, big box stores, etc. all will suffer a drop in income as customers begin to curtail public exposure.

Miami public schools are investing in 200,000 tablets so that schools can switch to online classes. Mike Allan, a journalist at Axios, reminds us that children who depend on school meal programs will be vulnerable if schools close.

The virus is the headline story but it has added more burden to the world economic situation. For example, Japan and the European Union each had only one percent growth in 2019. The G20 now has a compounded issue because the virus will interfere with international manufacturing. Television news noted that Apple, maker of the iPhone, already is behind in production because China has shut down factories.

And, on a long term economic issue, as salaries remain flat housing and rental prices continue to climb and many utilities are increasing the price of service by 20-25 percent. There are very few programs that support those who can no longer afford to pay water, electric and fuel bills. Only a handful of local jurisdictions have legislation that prevents utilities from stopping services on delinquent customers.

Mariner takes note that lack of confidence in Donald’s decision-making process was a concern should he start a war. It turns out he is just as incompetent managing a pandemic. Mariner has suggested in past posts that those running for public office must pass a psychological profile exam. Dictators and narcissists need not apply.

For the few among us who have play money, the cash pouring into our ‘democratic’ political system grows astronomically as three billionaires compete for the presidency. Citizens may have noticed that the candidates with more or less normal wealth are being squeezed out of the race. Mariner sees no candidate capable of tackling the immense issues of today’s world. The choice is which one will do the least damage. Unfortunately, no matter who wins it won’t make any difference if last-century republicans still hold the Senate.

At least issues of the moment have given everyone a break from thinking about global warming, artificial intelligence and government corruption.

Cheer up, in mariner’s town this Sunday it will be 65 degrees and sunny. Spring is nigh, folks.

Ancient Mariner

 

Trends

Gathering meaningful, real, honest information via Trump television is virtually impossible. A few news outlets, most are on the Internet, go to great lengths to report untainted news and news that is actually important; the only two television news outlets mariner can recommend are NEWSY and BBC, found on cable and Roku among several other sources.

Nevertheless, the world marches on and important trends are at stake in the coming months. Here are just a few:

֎ Roe v. Wade may be nearing the end of its influence. Justice Kennedy has retired and Justice Kavanaugh has replaced him. A significant abortion challenge will be heard by the court in a few weeks (June Medical Services v. Russo). Further, 39 senators and 168 representatives from 38 states are represented by counsel at Americans United for Life, a “life-affirming” law and policy nonprofit. They think the high court should overrule the landmark 1973 case Roe v. Wade.

֎ Global recession is imminent in 2020. The potential for a recession is the main topic at a forthcoming G20 meeting. The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) which is one of the world’s largest banking and financial services organizations has cut its global growth forecast from 2.5 to 2.3. Further, MIT says a major downturn could be only six months away. That means it could hit before the U.S. presidential election.

֎ As important as defeating Donald may be, the nation can’t begin repairing itself until the republican Senate is overturned. In the coming election, 22 republican senators must run for reelection. At the moment, the following States have republican US Senate seats open:

Tom Cotton of Arkansas

Cory Gardner of Colorado

David Perdue of Georgia

James Risch of Idaho

Joni Ernst of Iowa

Pat Roberts of Kansas

Mitch McConnell of Kentucky

Bill Cassidy of Louisiana

Susan Collins of Maine

Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi

Steve Daines of Montana

Ben Sasse of Nebraska

Thom Tillis of North Carolina

James Inhofe of Oklahoma

Lindsey Graham of South Carolina

Mike Rounds of South Dakota

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

John Cornyn of Texas

Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia

Michael Enzi of Wyoming

If the reader lives in a state on this list, that is important news to follow – almost as important as the Presidential election! Check local news outlets, communicate with party representatives.

֎ Another nation in South America joins violent rebellion along with Venezuela, Columbia and Brazil: Chile. Mariner has mentioned concern about losing South America as a grand, joint economic future for North and South America. In fact, economically the two continents could outperform China’s Belt and Road plan. However, Russia has a quasi-permanent toehold in Venezuela and China is an active Free Trade partner with Chile. While South America may not be a domestic headline, its future is linked to the future of the United States. Foreign policy with the Caribbean (even Puerto Rico) and South America has been dismal and self-serving. At the least, the US should be nice to avoid Russian nuclear weapons on the continent. Does the reader remember the Cuban missile crisis during the Kennedy administration? Well, they’re back . . . in Venezuela.

Ancient Mariner

 

 

Is the nuclear family an ideal culture?

“If you want to summarize the changes in family structure over the past century, the truest thing to say is this: We’ve made life freer for individuals and more unstable for families. We’ve made life better for adults but worse for children. We’ve moved from big, interconnected, and extended families, which helped protect the most vulnerable people in society from the shocks of life, to smaller, detached nuclear families (a married couple and their children), which give the most privileged people in society room to maximize their talents and expand their options. The shift from bigger and interconnected extended families to smaller and detached nuclear families ultimately led to a familial system that liberates the rich and ravages the working-class and the poor.” [Excerpt from David Brooks article, The Atlantic Magazine, March 2020]

When mariner worked in Taiwan he noticed that a large number of businesses were run by families. In fact, the government encouraged single tier businesses – the opposite of American mergers and vertical expansion. It was not an issue when a cousin or other relative was accepted into the family business.

The common class in Taiwan at the time did not present to mariner a class that had extra cash. Owning an automobile was exceptional; with very few exceptions, restaurants were simple storefronts with a few tables put on the sidewalk each day; the buildings themselves were minimal, hardly more than a car garage. Major shopping areas crowded under large, open-sided roofs. Mariner once shopped for houseplants from an older couple set up under a larger building’s Sun canopy; their merchandise was very nice specimens that numbered less than two dozen pots.

Having read David Brooks’ article, mariner has a new insight why the culture, the neighborhoods, the businesses appeared almost cash starved. In hindsight, the culture seemed stable, even content; large families were often seen crowding the narrow residential side streets in Tainan, one of Taiwan’s larger cities. The payoff to Taiwan families was that a family business was able to support three generations, often laterally across family branches. Mariner doesn’t remember seeing any nursing homes or retirement homes. The family provided these services.

Interestingly, Taiwan at the time had the seventh largest investment holdings among the world’s nations. These investments, at the root, were the savings of the family businesses. Insurance was too expensive; flamboyant entertainment (for citizens) was too expensive. The happiness of life existed within the large families.

David points to virtually the same cultural picture in the United States in the early 1800s. 75 percent of work was on farms; it took large families to run a small farm efficiently. In both situations, Taiwan and the US in 1800, cash was not a central device for local commerce; it was labor, trade and self-sustained security against life’s surprises.

The history of the US moving forward from 1800 is one of increasing cash as a way to leverage relatively expensive needs in the marketplace. Vertical corporate models easily monopolize cash flow over large segments of life. Large corporations capture more and more control of public life requiring more and more cash to be available for a small family to guarantee functions like schooling, health and retirement. In the US culture, trading for services is virtually unheard of.

Is the nuclear family, locked into a cash for services economy, beneficial?

Ancient Mariner

Nationalism under 5G

5G?

Fifth-generation wireless (5G) is the latest iteration of cellular technology, engineered to greatly increase the speed and responsiveness of wireless networks. With 5G, data transmitted over wireless broadband connections can travel at multigigabit speeds, with potential peak speeds as high as 20 gigabits per second (Gbps) by some estimates. These speeds exceed wireline network speeds and offer latency of 1 millisecond (ms) or lower for uses that require real-time feedback. 5G will also enable a sharp increase in the amount of data transmitted over wireless systems due to more available bandwidth and advanced antenna technology.

– – – –

A big conference will be held in Germany soon. Its primary speakers are the foreign ministers of China, Japan, India and South Korea. There is concern in Europe that the nations of Europe will never have 5G independence. Germany’s cybersecurity chief struck a pessimistic tone at a pre-Munich cyber conference: “If you talk about digital sovereignty, we don’t have it. And we’ll never have it.” There will be presentations by Pelosi, Pompeo and Zuckerberg as well. [Politico]

The idea of sovereignty may undergo significant political transformation if, as feared, whole nations are just uplinks to a few communication systems owned and operated by a few nations like China and the US. National privacy, very much like personal privacy, may not be available. In the old days the spy business used to be a face-to-face transaction but with China manufacturing its technical equipment and the US eavesdropping, no nation will have secrets.

The US already is pushing back on China for a number of manufactured items used in smartphones and cloud-based games. The US asked the European Union not to install Huawei hardware but, said the EU, what else is there? The US is behind China in 5G development.

Nations, just as with a person’s decision making, will be influenced by 5G operators who already know what the target nation is thinking, what its economic conditions are and where its vulnerabilities lie. What will this do to traditional diplomatic relationships? Will a robot wearing suit and tie replace Pompeo?

A current model may provide insight. At the turn of the millennium there were 12 significant stock exchanges around the world. The differences in time zone meant that transactional business for a given stock exchange was local and finished before other stock exchanges opened. Today, that is not the case. An investor can issue trades to any exchange in the world at any time of day. An investor doesn’t have to miss daily opportunities that would be gone had the investor had to wait until the exchange opened for business the next day.

Continuous access has the effect of leveling the monetary value of daily interactions between exchanges. It also reduces the range of highs and lows relative to other exchanges.

Applying these causes and effects to nations using 5G, the positive side may be the prevention of surprises that lead to political or military conflict. The downside may be a new form of authoritarianism – similar to the direction AI is taking with US citizens.

Ancient Mariner

Health Industry – Especially Pharmaceuticals

Why do Humans Organize? Because, as a species, they are too intelligent. Because, as a species, they are territorial. Because, as a species, they are assaultive. Because, as a species, they are an apex predator. Because, as a species, they are economic cannibals.

Pit bulls are more civil than human beings. Elk in rutting season are more civil than human beings. Bonobos, silverbacks and orangutans are more civil than human beings. Name any other mammal; they are more civil than human beings. Humans, because they are too intelligent, are capable of deliberate, unprovoked evil against their own kind.

Mariner speaks specifically of the health industry.

Among health services, the most cannibalistic are the pharmaceutical corporations. Some facts:

  • Xarelto, also known as Rivaroxaban, is manufactured by Bayer and a Johnson & Johnson subsidiary, Janssen Pharmaceuticals.
  • In US Xarelto without insurance, cash only, costs $16 for one pill. In India one pill costs $4. In Canada one pill costs $2.61.
  • Werner Baumann is the CEO of Bayer. His salary last year was $6.6 million.
  • Alex Gorsky is the CEO of Johnson & Johnson. His salary last year was $21.2 million.
  • Mariner’s prescription insurance pays for generic prescriptions; oddly, his deductible is the cost of one month of Xarelto, not a generic drug. An effort was made to explain donut holes but mariner couldn’t understand the irrationality of the phenomenon other than they are expensive.
  • Confronted by the embedded profit in Xarelto, mariner said never mind.

There are more tales to tell that may explain why mariner is sensitive about the cost of pharmaceuticals. Three years ago mariner was diagnosed with pulmonary fibrosis, a lung disorder that leads to death in a number of years (Don’t worry, he was misdiagnosed but that’s another tale). His pulmonologist, without advising mariner of the details, issued a prescription to mariner’s pharmacy. On his way home, mariner stopped by the pharmacy to validate the call. His pharmacist advised that it would cost $10,000 each month. Mariner said at once that he would die first rather than pay that money to a CEO that makes more in six months than mariner has made in a lifetime.

Despite his rejection, he received his first month’s dosage and immediately tried to return it but the company said they could not accept return drugs. That box sits in his closet to this very day. Mariner cancelled the prescription a second time and hasn’t paid a penny.

Among the theories of economics, capitalism is the most efficient at cannibalistic behavior. Imagine the reader owns a very powerful vacuum cleaner. It does a fantastic job of sucking in dirt and debris from floors, carpets, curtains and furniture. This vacuum is just like the modern ones: it steers itself and covers the entire floor.

One day the reader turns it on and leaves to go shopping. What the reader didn’t know was that the vacuum is voracious. If there’s no dirt or debris, the vacuum must continue sucking; it must continue to collect stuff. When the reader returns home, there are no curtains, no carpets, even the kitchen garbage can is empty. The reader didn’t know the vacuum was a capitalist vacuum.

The state of economics around the world is like that vacuum. Once targeted natural resources are consumed, capitalism can’t stop consuming. It becomes cannibalistic just like a tadpole turns to eating other tadpoles when normal food is scarce. This characteristic is found worldwide. The street phrase is “The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.” Today, in by far the wealthiest nation in history, the life of poor people has been sucked dry as if eaten by leeches. The poor die sooner, they can’t afford housing, they can’t eat well, they can’t afford children, they can’t afford spouses. They live the life of a dog on a short chain and die after an empty life.

But the oligarchs and wealthy still consume, eating the life out of everyone they can.

The US is the most capitalistic nation in the world but it isn’t alone. Virtually every nation around the world is turning cannibalistic. The resources of new continents, new frontiers, new space – all are gone. Mariner isn’t a trained economist but he knows something is broken and must be replaced.

One last fact: Hourly wages have remained flat for forty years adjusted for inflation; over the same forty years, the stock market has increased at a rate six and a half times inflation. Most of that increase came from denying workers a share to live on.

Ancient Mariner

 

Where Forth Labor Unions?

Nevada is one state where unions still play a significant role in political negotiations. A number of news outlets have published articles in lieu of the Nevada primary. The point was made that Mike Bloomberg has never publicly backed unions. It is true that as corporations gained political power during the end of the twentieth century, state governments in particular pushed hard to defund union membership, impose right-to-work legislation and otherwise paint bad images of unions.

Unions are no less saintly than politicians and corporate conservatives. All of them are aggressive in defending their perceptions of economic purpose. However, in this age where citizens no longer participate in the profits of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), where salaries linger at a small fraction of what they should be, where corporations are trying to drop benefits of any kind, having a union fight for a fair share for the workers may not be a bad idea. But unions represent only 1 in 10 hourly workers – down from 1 in 3 in 1955. State legislation in most states would have to go through a philosophical, highly opinionated and greatly resisted battle to reverse the disadvantages imposed over four decades.

Mariner wrote a post “About Labor Unions” (August 28 2019) that suggested the familiar union organization that has prevailed since the 1930s may not work in this new age of automation, rapid data learning and the ability for corporations to move operations anywhere in the world.

As corporations have become an economic force across governmental boundaries, it is difficult for unions to sustain equally flexible membership given location and nationality. Even more problematic, governments have difficulty managing corporations. In this campaign season where ‘socialistic’ ideas are being touted, union leaders may consider joining the national noise of the campaign to back a new national strategy for unionism.

Trying to maintain the traditional ‘local’ organization will not be influential enough to tackle market issues that cross national boundaries. In the recent post mariner suggested the ACLU organizational model. Further, mariner feels that a governmental agency (a new version of the Labor Department) could set regulatory policy similar to the Environmental Protection Agency today – Donald’s interference notwithstanding. The new labor department could negotiate treaties similar to the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) except with a fair set of rules for workers.

In any case, righting the economic ship is more than just fixing taxes. It is setting new protective rules for workers in an age where moving from job to job may be the new norm and sustaining economic viability in unemployed neighborhoods may have to be part of the agreement language.

Ancient Mariner

 

On the Tech Front

֎ It was China who hacked into Equifax’s credit history data recently. China now has the credit history of most Americans. May as well ask China for one’s latest credit score.

֎ The first ‘no-cash’ all electronic bank was approved by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The bank’s name is Varo. No tellers required. It isn’t exactly the Kenya model but it’s an app on the smartphone. The ‘buyer beware’ element is that a person never holds income in their own hands; the asset value of income is disappearing. Oh well, most people can’t afford to buy houses, build savings or pay for health and retirement anyway.

֎ Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo) said:    “Google and Facebook have acquired hundreds of companies in the last two decades, yet the FTC never once intervened to try to block any of these acquisitions.”

֎ Amazon Prime Day has become a top-notch shopping holiday, up there with Black Friday.

It occurs to mariner that the world is fragmenting. On the one hand, wealth is accumulating at increasing speed to those of the oligarchical class; on the other hand, lower and middle class people are having a bankruptcy experience; on the other hand, artificial intelligence is taking over the role of shaping society; on the other hand, corporate influence is replacing government influence as the source of economic oversight; on the other hand, dozens of nations will cease to exist as global warming takes its toll on land, water and economy.

Okay, millennials and Zs, it’s your turn.

Ancient Mariner

How to manage wampum

A few North American Indian tribes invented a jewelry that could double as money. It was called wampum and was made from small, polished pieces of seashells. It was managed in several ways. It was jewelry as the picture shows; often it was kept in long belts and was used in the way rosary beads are used today although the wampum belt was more a family history than a religious tool. Also kept in belt form, individual wampum could be slipped off as a form of cash; the intrinsic value came from its attractiveness as jewelry and the time and labor it took to convert clam shells to wampum. These belts were the first wallets in North America.

Wampum was traded or given between individuals directly. There were no banks. Interestingly, the citizens of Kenya in 2007 became the first country to launch ‘mobile money’ transfer service through a cell phone provider that plays the role of a money exchange. Swapped phone to phone, no bank is necessary.

The banking industry is very concerned that smartphones could perform a similar exchange and would not need banking services. The current market is encouraged by banks to use the ubiquitous credit card which places the bank in the middle of every transaction. Banks also handle credit not just for retail but for massive loans to corporations. Naturally, banks, like any broker, sit between two parties and have ingenious ways of culling a ‘few’ dollars from both parties. Don’t get Elizabeth Warren started!

In 1933 banks, investment banks and insurance companies were broken apart[1]. One corporation could not operate more than one function. This was done by the government to control manipulation between functions to make banks seem like they had more assets than they really had. In 1999, the banks, long complaining about the breakup, finally had that legislation overturned. By 2008, nine short years, the bank industry collapsed, causing a lot of people to lose a lot of money especially in real estate. The US had to restart the banking industry by giving banks 700 billion dollars. Don’t get Elizabeth Warren and lots of every day Americans started!

Many readers will remember the Savings and Loan collapse in 1989. Recovery cost the nation 160 billion dollars. The cause was a combination of constraints in the amount of interest banks could charge on mortgages while inflation rose to 18 percent by 1980.

The banks have been meddling with another economic function in recent years: they are sharing financial information with big data. So banks have the new ability to know what a person spends money on, what their financial habits are and whether a person is susceptible to a marketing scheme or conversely not a good risk because they ate bacon for breakfast. Don’t get Elizabeth Warren and a lot of privacy advocates started.

As a comparison to another industry, Donald is championing the fossil fuel industry to overturn every kind of regulation that interferes with oil profit. Should the fossil fuel industry advise the public on the ramifications of global warming? No more than banks should control the nation’s economy.

Break ‘em up! As to retail transactions, why are they called ‘smart’ phones? The Kenyans know.

Ancient Mariner

[1] Glass Steagall Act

Cash not Accepted

This is an issue that seems troublesome. Frequently, using cash to pay for material goods and services is not allowed in deference to the ease of credit card payment, smartphone gimmickry and more generally by the desire of the banking industry to ‘manage your income’ for you. Further, the increasing percentage of online purchases makes cash less necessary for daily living.

Regular readers know that mariner is an advocate of personal privacy – not only because he wants privacy but more importantly, that without control of his personal information he will cease to be the decision maker in his daily life. Data tech corporations receive billions of dollars by selling personal information to entities who want to manipulate individuals in a manner that increases profits rather than taking a genuine interest in the wellbeing, independence and prerogatives of an individual. Even the political conflicts that produce destructive false information and fake news and unmanaged data will bring down a civilization. Mariner agrees with George Soros and many others that Mark Zuckerberg should be removed as CEO of Facebook.

Not being allowed to pay by cash, however, has larger social ramifications. Axios.com posted an item that exposed the difficulty of small rural towns where small banks are closing, leaving citizens without a way to manage their finances but also limiting the borrowing of funds to manage agricultural cycles. In principle, there is no cash to be had. The result is that big bank corporations now have a say in whether a local farmer can obtain an operating loan. Indirectly, this means a big bank can manage agricultural practices.

The largest social ramification is the economic abandonment of the poor and low labor classes of US society. Credit is not only a matter of opportunity, where one lives can shut off any form of cash equity. One’s credit is based on neighborhood as much as personal responsibility. Donald is pursuing changes to the Community Reinvestment Act that will modify the reasons why banks are required to invest in poor environments.

A poor person, with just a few dollars in their pocket, will have no way to purchase goods because they will not have a credit card.

Typically, capitalism works fine when there are resources to leverage. Alas, the US is running out of resources which has led to the oligarchic scavenging of 90 percent of its population. Switching to cashless economics will hurt a large percentage of citizens who have no choice but to deal in cash.

There was an example on TV that showed a father wanting to buy his children ice cream but the establishment would only accept credit cards.

Ancient Mariner