Category Archives: Economy

Beware the Eye of Sauron

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An icon from J.R. R. Tolkien’s ‘The Lord of the Rings’, The Eye is constantly watching for an opportunity to strike evil in the world. Tolkien references Sauron as the most complete evil. Throughout many of Tolkien’s stories, Sauron, by many names, is the evil power that wishes to control all of Middle Earth.

The manner by which Sauron attempts to intercede in Middle Earth society is surreptitious. Sauron seeks to undermine truth with malicious myths; he seeks to disrupt achievement with abusive intent; he provokes war and conflict by any means. Eventually, if his tactics prevail, he will reign as the evil dictator of all Middle Earth.

Who has the power to make today’s reality exist according to the plot of The Lord of the Rings? Is it Sauron himself? Is he, in fact, real? There are surreptitious examples:

AI displacing human behavior.

MAGA, a movement driven by myth.

Plutocracy, an economic ploy to suck the life out of human equality.

Twenty active wars around the globe with some very large wars waiting in the wings.

A myriad of destructive prejudices preventing humanity from a smooth, collaborative world.

COVID

Unsustainable relationship between humans and sufficient food in the biosphere.

Increasingly rapid extinction of tens of thousands of creatures in the environment.

Sauron is good at what he does. Mariner is thinking about moving back to Chicken Little’s henhouse.

Ancient Mariner

 

Beyond the Glory of America

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Officially, mariner has returned home from Chicken Little’s hen house. He did watch the democratic convention. News is show biz. The actual participants in the convention, however, really put on a professional Broadway show. So the race is about to start: 74 days to election day. One’s vote is just like buying a lottery ticket or a ticket to a Taylor Swift show.

Less acute as an issue but a great deal more impactful is recent news from environmental scientists. They have begun to provide comparatively more accurate timelines about global warming. Speaking very generally, the planet will be a different planet by the end of the century.

One factor is melting polar ice. He just read that they are melting faster each year. If they melt at their present increasing rate, scientists predict a rise of as much as 50 feet in ocean level by 2100. As the years pass, anyone living near the Tropical Zone (between Tropic of Cancer in the north  (23°26′ N) and the Tropic of Capricorn in the south ( 23°26′ S.) will experience a significant increase in temperatures and storms. In terms of the U.S, Phoenix is just 486 miles above the Tropical Zone at 32º18′, Brownsville Texas just 162 miles above at 26º10′ and Florida just 54 miles at 24º49′.

Global warming is an economic issue. Already the United States has had to spend an extra 11 billion on this phenomenon. Add to that overhead the same circumstances in other nations around the world – from Haiti to China.

Whether Donald or Kamala, they will be forced to address this issue in addition to all the economic political arguments we expect to hear.

Ancient Mariner

Forget search engines

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Mariner recently read an account of the next phase in AI: Merging corporate data with personal data taken from one’s own computer or smartphone. It is an attempt to “read the interests of the user” in order to provide an instant integration between user interest and what’s related in the cloud. Today’s search engines won’t be needed. The intent is that the cloud and the user are one unified operation. Microsoft will keep its own copy of all files, websites, everything executed on a person’s private computer.

It is fascinating to read arguments from both sides of this objective. AI folks see this progress as a great service to the user; privacy advocates see this progress as not only an invasion of privacy but more broadly see a future where society is managed to the extent that an individual’s ability to reason unique personal solutions for a ‘real’ world doesn’t exist.

When humans aren’t allowed to see genuine reality, their control of reality disappears. Historically, this is the complaint about dictatorships because the dictator determines what matters. Mariner’s oft-cited movies, 1984 and Matrix, are about the loss of individuality because AI dictators say what is real.

Already a person’s budget, housing and other accessories are limited to what is seen on a screen ad page. Could there be other options? Even the banking industry is offering to manage your cash for you – don’t need checkbook records anymore; it is possible to be in debt and not know it.

Mariner knows he is peeing in the ocean. There is no government, no culture, no enterprise that can avoid the move toward replacing one’s individuality with the pseudo compassion of Amazon as to what’s the best deal. In fact, medical science has already made artificial brain parts. Be wary if someone suggests installing a receptacle in your neck; your brain will know only what’s on your smartphone.

Armageddon progresses.

Ancient Mariner

 

Where will you move?

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Mariner feels compelled to address the immigration issue. Amid all the other pressures in a rapidly changing society and a rapidly changing planet, immigration serves as the most dependable barometer of progress or failure. How Homo handles immigration will tell the world whether humans are up to the task of surviving in the new biosphere.

Humans are accustomed to tracking history by the occurrence of wars. It took over 300 years of savage fighting for the Vikings and British to settle their differences; it signaled a transition from tribal government to monarchy. It brings to mind the current war between Islamic theocracies in the middle East and Jesus-oriented nations. It took about 1,000 years and innumerable wars to move from Roman theocracy to a separation of church and state. It took four wars in the 1850’s and two world wars in the 1900’s to move from economic colonialism to independent national economies.

Measuring history and the future by wars is more like taking taking one’s temperature at the moment rather than measuring progress over time. Immigration management is not a war as such but rather a timeline depicting how humans adapt to the pressures of a changing world.

Migration is an intrinsic behavior, not a war. It’s been around since Homo habilis left Africa more than 60,000 years ago. While on the subject, when was the last time the reader moved, AKA migrated? There is a distinct difference between an act to dominate and an act to survive.

So do not succumb to the current belligerent attitude about immigration; society will be measured by it’s methods of accommodation, not how high the fence is.  Immigration is just beginning to rise at unusually high rates. To some degree, one can fault incompetent dictatorships – how does one build a high fence around a dictator?

More significantly, the changing climate will cause many nations to fail because of economic and habitable failure – yes, even Florida.

Beneath it all is a slow, painful transition from capitalist society to socialist society. Not that capitalism will disappear, just that saving as many people as possible from inhabitable lives will require more distributive philosophies of government.

Ancient Mariner

 

Define Armageddon . . .

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Oh my! Mariner has been challenged to define his vague threat of Armageddon. That would be like describing life in Hell – not fun, not positive, not provable. A short list of variations is provided without comment. He adds an Apocalypse at the end. The difference between Armageddon and Apocalypse is that Armageddon is a violent end with no survivors whereas an Apocalypse has survivors.

֎ Most imminent would be nuclear war, given the activities of Russia, North Korea and Iran, not to mention the backers of war, China and the US.

֎ Government would yield to oligarchical economies reminiscent of the early Persian Empire or the frequent beheading by the Mayan culture. Several African nations already deal with this issue.

֎ Worldwide collapse of economics due to global warming – both the restorative cost and the great reduction of natural resources. This Armageddon already has begun and will be much more expensive as weather and sinking cities trash government budgets and natural resources drop to unsustainable levels.

֎ Most distant would be the usurpation of the human species by electronic intelligence.

֎ An Apocalypse would be the aforementioned economic collapse and associated violence of nation-based economies but a resurrection to a global economy that assured participation in cooperative supply chains that bind countries to a common economy. Nationalism would be minimized.

One must not forget that the planet is the biggest player. At the end, one wonders how many humans will be around.

Ancient Mariner

 

The fluid state of Education

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Mariner mentioned in a recent post that several institutions in the United States are in worse shape than they may seem. One was education. Just very briefly and broadly, education has shifted as social change has shifted: In the pre-industrial age, education was all about local training and learning financial and writing skills commensurate with local need. General primary education was sparsely represented and was charged with basic reading and writing skills; in rural areas, average dropout by students was the fourth grade.

The second half of the 1800s had a burst of industrial, chemical and electrical discoveries that called for higher language and communication skills – each requiring more ability via writing and speaking; in the middle of this period, student grading was introduced to public education and became the norm – some history and social science were added.

By the early 1900s, large urbanization and competitive businesses were setting knowledge standards for employment – more education with better grades became a workforce standard for getting ahead and earning more. Colleges began to be an option for the general population, no longer limited to the elite and one-off intellectuals.

By the end of WWII (1944), the government had become strongly democratic and sponsored educational activity at all levels. Public schooling grew rapidly; a notable shift in extended education arose as military service offered free college. This broad financial boost to college education, available to virtually anyone, was the beginning of the ‘white collar’ social class. All education, from first grade to college graduate, was well funded and easily attainable – expected for anyone not in labor or service careers.

Until the political parties switched many of their social commitments in the 1960s when Lyndon Johnson pushed through civil rights legislation and Dixie went red, education was under the blessing of the democratic (AKA white collar) party and remained stable.

But a rough economic era since the 1970s (chart) and three destructive recessions in 1973, 1983 and 2007 have disrupted discretionary funding, including health and tax fairness as well.

A definite beneficiary of the government’s financial support was the colleges themselves, who raised tuition. In 1980, the price to attend a four-year college full-time was $10,231 annually – including tuition, fees, room and board, and adjusted for inflation – according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By 2019-20, the total price increased to $28,775. That’s a 180% increase.

National politics are shifting back to lower income social classes. There are many reasons for education to be wary: weaponized political parties, weaponized religious denominations, and huge, life changing historical college debt, social media, ChatGTP, all of which leave education in a collapsed state. Public schools are dominated by closed-minded school boards; college applicants are demanding low tuition and guaranteed jobs at graduation – a demand that has allowed corporations to begin funding education.

Perhaps the shifts in education are a clear example of what’s happening everywhere in these disruptive times. The education dilemma also shows the complex, interwoven influences across life’s processes in government, industry and society. We cannot solve education independently – many frontiers must be solved at the same time.

Ancient Mariner

The New Age

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Scientific American has focused on modern issues, particularly those related to a new AI world:

It Is Too Soon for Clinical Trials on Artificial Wombs

An example of an artificail womb

A technology meant to help severely premature infants raises questions of inequity and may some day threaten parents’ rights to make decisions.

 

 

Who Owns Your Voice in the Age of AI?

Emerging AI services present scenarios that could challenge the laws over rights to a persona.

 

 

Remember when the moral question was whether it was right to prefer building roads through indigent neighborhoods? Remember when party lines on telephones became an invasion of privacy? Remember when purchasing anything only required anonymous cash or paper-based checks?

The point is that no one, not even the technicians, has a moral understanding of what an automated world looks like. How will routine judgments based on human dignity be altered? In the extreme, will Wiley’s cartoon about buying a newborn from Microsoft become a reality? Who made a rational decision about the merits of conception?

The public domain, ruled throughout history by the idiosyncrasies of each individual as a unique individual, no longer will have that discipline because AI can produce as many copies of an individual as it chooses; They will be exact copies complete with gestures and voice.

Which brings the situation to this: Do Senators John Boozman (73), John Hickenlooper (72), Richard Blumenthal (78), Tom Carper (77), Rick Scott (71), Mazie Hirono (76), Mike Crapo (73), Jim Risch (81), Dick Durbin (79), Mike Braun (70), Chuck Grassley (90), Jerry Moran (70), Mitch McConnell (82), John Kennedy (72), Susan Collins (71), Angus King (80), Ben Carden (80), Elizabeth Warren (74), Ed Markey (77), Debbie Stabenow (74), Roger Wicker (72), Deb Fishcher (73), Jeanne Shaheen, (77), Bob Menendez (70), Chuck Shumer (73), Sherrod Brown (71), Ron Wyden (75), Jack Reed (74) Marsha Blackburn (71), John Cornyn (72), Mitt Romney (77), Peter Welch (77), Patty Murray (73), Joe Manchin (76), Shelly Moore Capito (70), and John Barrasso (71) [36 Senators out of 100] have the life perspective capable of comprehending the social and moral ramifications of the AI age?

Humans finish grasping a subconscious moral perception of reality by the age of 25. Does a Senator who developed a moral understanding of the world when Abraham, Martin and John were assassinated really have the wherewithal to manage Corporate AI? So far it seems not. Mariner knows he doesn’t.

If the reader has the possibility of voting for a young representative no older than 55, seriously consider that candidate.

Ancient Mariner

 

 

 

 

2024 – the age of juggernauts

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A good analogy for the definition of ‘juggernaut’ is a huge cargo ship running into a bridge, splintering the bridge apart as if it were made of matchsticks. The 2000s have been years for growing juggernauts culminating with an election in 2024 that may well splinter a nation.  The registry of juggernauts is awesome: Middle East oil, Middle East war, Middle East international conflict, Putin’s war, Sudan genocide, Pacific war over Taiwan; in the US, the recent pandemic, immigration, unbridled economy, cultural collapse, social isolation expressed with mass shootings, Federal and State governments and courts operating under antique theories about governance and further stressed by the presence of plutocracy, the age of super-automation and the stress from violating the rules of nature for centuries.

It makes one feel they are walking through an entanglement of giant rosebushes with significant danger from life-threatening thorns.

There are three relatively unnoticed juggernauts that will bring collapse to our nation – not the movie versions with high energy explosions and sudden destruction of the countryside. What will happen is similar to the ripening of an avocado – looks good on the surface but spoils more rapidly inside than expected and is inedible before one would suspect. The three juggernauts are:

֎ Health Industry. Even today the economics of health management are destructive. Too few physicians are graduating from medical school, nurses and other staff are overworked while working for wages that have not kept up with inflation. US governments/insurance agencies are over-managing medical science and the implied authorities of medical professionals. Private investment is turning medical service into a profit-only model of service, demanding more patients with less care per patient. There is a growing trend for physicians to disassociate from their medical institution and set up an independent, fee-based patient relationship (eliminating access for poorer patients). In mariner’s state of Iowa even standardized health care may be an more than an hour away.

There is promise from new technology that will ease an individual’s workload but this is only a mechanical solution to a national population that cannot survive to current age expectations without personalized healthcare. In 1900 the average life expectancy was 40 years.

֎ Retirement. This is a cousin juggernaut to healthcare. The population in the US has begun to slow because births have fallen below 2.1 per fertile woman; by the end of the century population will reflect an annual decrease. At the same time, an increasing percentage of the population is moving into retirement. Today, this population dilemma goes unnoticed. As more and more citizens retire, fewer and fewer citizens comprise the national workforce. Who will, or can, pay for retirement and healthcare? On this very day Social Security faces a huge political confrontation in 2025. The only solutions offered to date are sidewalk tents and tiny ‘homes’ for the homeless.

֎ Education. In the 1850s the idea of grading students was implemented. This has been the norm until the internet began to offer divers ways to gain an education. Today’s society is so divers that the letter ‘A’ or ‘C’ can have very different meanings across different education administrations. Colleges in particular suffer from the undermining idea that knowledge cannot be totally scored by a set of letters. The desire to tie education with a direct link to a job is more important than a letter.

It has been a blessing over the decades that the ‘white collar’ class maintained a steady, independent function for education. This is gone today as citizens attack libraries and otherwise intercede the authority of trained teachers – similar to interference by governments with a physician’s professional decisions.

Over the centuries with many cultures and religions, education was a matter of compliance with behavioral norms or religious mandates. Neither is an influence today because of the diversity of society and, in particular, because of confrontations with many juggernauts.

While there are many techniques for keeping one’s self sane and worthy, that does not dismiss one’s job to sustain survival as a nation.

The closing analogy is one of a polar bear trying to walk across melting slush in a warming world.

Ancient Mariner

A different puzzle

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Today’s puzzle is not about algorithms or lateral thinking; it’s about introspective thinking about who the reader is and how they may not be the same person under different circumstances. Read the following from Politico about Carlos Moreno who proposes a new concept for city living.

” LIVEABLE CITIES: Carlos Moreno is best known as the man who pioneered the concept of the 15-minute city — the idea that people should be able to access all essentials like work, food and leisure within a 15-minute walk or bike ride. A Professor at the Sorbonne University in Paris, he’ll launch his new book, “The Fifteen Minute City: A Solution to Saving Our Time and Our Planet,” today at the conference.

“The idea is that we need a radical change to our lifestyle and our work style,” he explained in an interview. “The central paradigm of most of the 20th century — inspired by LeCorbusier — was “zonification” where there were residential areas, cultural areas, etc. Rethinking this, relocalizing work for example, has ecological, economic and social benefits.”

So, the puzzle for the reader is to imagine how many ways your life values would change if everything in your life (that is not online) was within fifteen minutes of your front door. Don’t forget entertainment, sports, your workplace and what neighbors you would have.

֎

Give yourself about an hour or so to ponder, then read this paragraph:

“What we’re finding is that the environment in which you grow up, the neighborhood in which you live, the people you’re connected to, the schools and colleges you go to — all these ultimately greatly shape your life trajectory,” he told Playbook. “You take a child and move that child to a different environment, you’ll see completely different life outcomes for those children.” [Harvard economist Raj Chetty ]

Continue the puzzle. How would the reader’s life be different if they were born into a different neighborhood and then add what if their entire life was within fifteen minutes.

Both these ideas remind mariner of the Movie 1984. Throw in computer domination and the movie Matrix comes to mind. Further, they sound like the mouse studies where mice were put in large cages to see what would happen.

Oh, for two ponies and a cart.

Ancient Mariner

Twentieth Century

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Roughly speaking, the European era of colonialism existed from the 14th century until the 19th century. A weakening of colonialism began with the creation of the United States in the late 1700s. It was an era when the European nations played a role very similar to today’s venture capitalists. Europe didn’t want there to be too much war because war doesn’t necessarily generate profit. Instead, through political and especially religious domination, Europe invaded cultures rather than territory. Capitalism was the only political game.

It took two world wars to reorder the international relationship from economically constricted nations to an era of independent nations. The twentieth century, all 100 years of it, was a process of restructuring economic theory, redividing political authority and launching an unprecedented pursuit of technology from automobiles and interstates to landing on the moon.

As much as can be expected, democracy bloomed around the world. While wars continued, they were regional, e.g, Vietnam war. The economic reordering of the world economy based on independent nations increased gross domestic profit in all civilized nations, ergo, the richer nations could finance regional wars as a means of political influence.

The concept of power through financial support of war continues into the twenty-first century. Like an addiction, too much war can be bad for the planet. It is clear across all news platforms that war seems not to solve twenty-first century issues. Human society in general struggles with the last century’s version of venture capitalism, democratic concepts being stressed by instant global communication and a restructuring of political power based on stressed natural resources as common as drinking water.

The elephant in the room for the twenty-first century is global warming. Virtually everyone still would rather keep the twentieth century values than have to start over again with a new era. But at what price?

Corporations have moved on and are not controlled by twentieth century democracy. Governments around the world struggle to identify new international relationships. Wealth continues to grow despite the deepening economic crisis around the world. Dictators are leveraging public fear as the world shifts.

Unfortunately, no one knows how things will work out but there are indications that human strife cannot afford to continue paying for the twentieth century.

Ancient Mariner