Fitting in

Every one of us likes to think we have a romantic side. Being romantic is a soft, rewarding experience; we feel we are making the world a more cohesive and friendly place. Anyone with a serious hobby has a notion that they are somehow contributing to the harmony of the universe.

Take gardening. It is easy to feel harmony with Mother Nature; perhaps to feel what a parent’s feeling is for their children. One feels particularly proud of what the gardens contribute to the world of living things.

“What are you talking about?” Mother Nature asks. “If you want romance go see a movie. It’s a dog eat dog out here in the ecosystem.” It is true. The only value is the ability to procreate, to sustain the species. Each and every entity surviving in nature for eons has been honing its survival qualities and its unique leverage against other species to maintain survival in the ecosystem.

Grackles are no exception. Grackles are those medium-sized black birds with long tails and iridescent heads. It turns out grackles have mastered plant thievery in several ways. Most notably they are classic marauders of young seedlings, soft, premature seeds and fruit. They travel in classic packs, performing raids on gardens and trees in large numbers. Direct and peripheral damage is irrelevant as they search for vulnerable plant life.

Mariner has had to set aside his romantic side. Last evening he planted 50 onion settings (virtually no bulb with a leaf about 3 inches high).

This morning when mariner went out to the garden, all fifty settings had pulled from the ground – even though the grackles seemed not to like onions and left the onions sprawled across the garden box.

Nowhere in any garden handbook does it say cover the bed with wire protection. Mariner replanted the onions and laid hardware wire across the box.

He hustled four rabbits out of the yard this morning, too. Intellectually, mariner understands that every successful species has its own ethic about survival. It’s just that humans think they can master Mother Nature’s little rules for survival. This misconception is why suddenly we have climate change on our hands.

Mariner is going to a movie tonight.

Ancient Mariner

Another world on this world

Mariner is judgmental about most things happening in the world today but every once in a while he discovers a different world. This time it is the Ashaninka indigenous people living in the Amazon River wilderness where the Amazon crosses the Peru/Brazil border. They are the subject of an article in Scientific American Magazine/May 2022.

Aside from their lifestyle, which is in true balance with their rain forest habitat, they have mastered keeping the modern world away by shrewd dealings with government agencies, logging companies and drug entrepreneurs who illegally would clear the forest to grow coca, yet at the same time the Ashaninka have preserved simple religious practices, have a simple government comprised of a dozen elders and a stable economy that sustains their natural environment. The strength of their culture was demonstrated when twenty members laid down in a road that loggers were illegally attempting to build, finally forcing the loggers to retreat.

The Ashaninka negotiated the land in 1992 as a protected reserve for indigenous people. The land had been logged and was not a balanced ecology. Since then the tribe has restored the natural forest, encouraged indigenous animal life including two threatened species, the jaguar and the woolly monkey.

Alas, the Ashaninka live in Nirvana. One thousand members survive in an area of 335 square miles (214,800 acres) and 247 miles from the nearest and tiny town of Pucallpa. As a planet, seven billion people share 37 billion acres, about 5 acres per person compared to each tribe member having 214 acres.

These indigenous people live contemporary lives; they believe that all of the elements in their natural realm are family members – including stars, Sun, vegetation and animals; they maintain a guarded relationship with governments and charitable institutions; they keep a wary eye on the capitalist corporations that want to take their family away.

The culture is maintained by a handful of shamans whose job is to interpret the value of existential events.

Our human wisdom has brought us so much. Humans have landed on the moon, invented nuclear weapons, have periodic wars. Fortunately, humans are moving to metaland where acres need only be a few million electrons.

Ancient Mariner

 

Puzzled

Mariner’s three alter egos, Guru, Amos and Chicken Little, are apprehensive. It seems the entire world is a pot of stew about to boil out of the pot making a huge mess. Perhaps it is similar to a hot air balloon slowly leaking air until the acceleration of gravity pulls faster and faster toward the ground. Perhaps it is more like a circus tent free of grounding stakes and the wind is growing stronger.

The rules that have governed mankind since the Luddites objected to new weaving technology in 1779 are unraveling as a new dimension of automation brings stress to the planet. It is a universal stress not limited to one circumstance like weaving or one nation like England, it is international, it is cultural, and it is personal. All the while the planet is tinkering with a new habitat for life.

Well into his eighties, mariner admits to being a Luddite. His reality began crumbling with the assassinations captured in the song ‘Abraham, Martin and John’. A poignant memory for mariner’s generation, the lyrics are below:

 

Has anybody here seen my old friend Abraham?

Can you tell me where he’s gone?

He freed a lot of people

But it seems the good die young

But I just looked around and he’s gone

 

Has anybody here seen my old friend John?

Can you tell me where he’s gone?

He freed a lot of people

But it seems the good die young

But I just looked around and he’s gone

 

Has anybody here seen my old friend Martin?

Can you tell me where he’s gone?

He freed a lot of people

But it seems the good die young

But I just looked around and he’s gone

 

Didn’t you love the things that they stood for?

Didn’t they try to find some good for you and me?

And we’ll be free

Someday soon, it’s gonna be

One day

 

Has anybody seen my old friend Bobby?

Can you tell me where he’s gone?

I thought I saw him walkin’

Up over the hill

With Abraham, Martin and John

 

Consequently, today the race war of 1860 has never ended. The Camelot vision collapsed in the 1960s because of the unpopular Vietnam War and a growing conservative swing in local government. Also today, economic theory is engaged in a war, the philosophy of individual freedom in a democratic society is crumbling and international politics is collapsing.

So this post is about none of that. It’s about puzzles. There are two: the first is an exercise in arithmetic; the second, taken from a Zen calendar, is a true puzzle.

  1. There was a shipwreck at sea and Buck, Lance and Jack were washed ashore on a small island. Upon reaching shore they promptly fell asleep from exhaustion. A short time later, Buck awoke and saw that a box of bananas had been washed ashore. Buck ate one third of the bananas and went back to sleep. Lance soon awoke and upon seeing the box of bananas ate one third of what was left and then fell asleep. Jack woke next and assumed that the other two hadn’t eaten any bananas, so he ate one third of what remained. When Jack had finished, there were eight bananas left. How many bananas were in the box originally? [answer in next post]
  2. A quote from Niels Bohr: “The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth.” Is this plausible? Is it logical? Is this how conspiracy theory works? [Send mariner an answer, he doesn’t have one]

 

Ancient Mariner

Why?

Mariner is a ‘why’ person. An intensely why person. He instinctively searches for the broadest explanation of why something is. Today’s world is an enigma. Why is democracy cracking around the world? Why are autocratic politics rampaging in the United States? Why do Africa and South America lag behind the northern hemisphere in social and economic sophistication? Why have more than 16,000 animals gone extinct? Why has the Earth begun to behave erratically?

One can speculate a credible ‘why’ for each question but the difficulty is finding a ‘why’ that encompasses all the inequities happening at the same time. Add in a smaller ‘why’ each for artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency, racial disruption and a myriad other societal disruptions. Why is all this happening at once?

One can seek large assumptions like the Earth is changing from one eon to the next, dragging everything along with it like tin cans dragging behind a marriage getaway car. One can blame humanity for destroying planetary ethics, therefore heading to some kind of Armageddon.

An assumption that is likely to be true is that the temperature and climate of the Earth have been unusually stable for the last 100,000 years – a time when the human species became intelligent and spread around the world. Scientists are finding evidence that global weather is changing not only because of human activity but in addition the planet itself is provoking change; it has something to do with the axial cycle of the planet as it circles the Sun. But why is all this other stuff happening at the same time?

Those with spiritual insight may lay a broad veil of immorality across contemporary history. Those with economic insight may suggest that global resources are dwindling, causing economic imbalance. Social critics may claim that humanity has trashed the planet. Perhaps, but why do the issues all come together at once?

It is easy to pass into fantastical theories about how all this relates. But is there a rational reason, perhaps subliminal to normal existential experiences that suggest a common theme for why everything is changing at once? In some unspoken manner all these issues are like the ingredients in a cake: they are linked in one reality. What confounds the issue is that it is not like dominoes falling in a line, it is all dominoes falling over at once. Why?

Mariner’s wife is the Blog’s Poetess Extraordinaire. She suggested a poem by Pattiann Rogers which suggests the ultimate ‘why’ is perpetual decay or as mariner’s son would say, entropy. This seemingly instantaneous collapse has been happening all along bit by bit and, like the game Jenga, it is time for all to fall down.

But why now?

Ancient Mariner

Happy Easter

Even if the weather isn’t cooperating, Spring is leaping forward. Mariner’s seed trays are full of little plants eager to be put in the garden. Just today he received red onion plants; they must go directly into the garden bed. Also just today, the weather was mild enough for him to prepare the garden bed for those onions. Mariner is grossly out of shape.

Mariner truly can’t handle his entire garden anymore. Each year he makes a deal with Mother Nature to take care of an increasing part of the garden he can’t manage. He has mentioned in past posts about his partnership with moles to control Japanese Beetles. That worked out well.

He discovered a fine looking weed (perhaps a Speedwell variety) that covers the ground as completely as grass and has a tiny white flower. Mariner plans to use it in some beds and places where grass just doesn’t want to grow – and the ground cover doesn’t need to be mowed!

Given the advantage of living in retirement and thereby protected from chimpanzian aggression to survive, mariner’s need to compete with nature has subsided. Mother Nature has been running the evolution show for 3.2 billion years since the first microbial sludge pumped oxygen into a methane atmosphere. If one can pause for a moment while suppressing the anxieties of modern human life, one realizes that Mother Nature is the real, educated, experienced boss of the biosphere AND humans – who are a troublesome creation to be sure.

While the human version of a natural biosphere involves everything from lawn Nazis to massive open pit mining complete with poisonous waste, in fact Mother Nature knows what really works in the long run, human evolution notwithstanding.

So mariner lets Mother Nature manage what he cannot manage. It actually is entertaining to watch how she meters out the advantages and disadvantages to all living things as they take their place in the biosphere and in mariner’s yard. True, the yard is no French castle garden, but such presentation is not of value to Mother Nature.

One annoying element that is out of control (from mariner’s point of view) is rabbits. They are highly destructive to vegetables and flowers alike. Humans are to blame because they decided to live in large, crowded towns where rabbit predators choose not to go. Subject to the sins of his own kind, mariner must play the role of rabbit predator.

The world of life is fascinating when human judgments are set aside. Take a long moment to visit a naturalized park to see what reality really looks like.

Ancient Mariner

Is growing autocracy a world threat?

Suddenly many of mariner’s sources have written articles about the growing number of autocracies around the world. Autocracy and democracy do not get along well and Putin’s immoral assault on democratic Ukraine is an example of the difference in national behavior between the two political ideologies.

Matching headlines with Putin is the growing autocratic momentum in the United States. Add two or three new dictators elected in other nations in the last few months and journalists see a trend. Will the United States be able to vaccinate itself against autocracy? Will the world’s democracies be willing to engage in physical war to stem the trend? No less than The Atlantic in May’s issue has published a major article by May Applebaum about this concern:

“There is no natural liberal world order, and there are no rules without someone to enforce them. Unless democracies defend themselves together, the forces of autocracy will destroy them. I am using the word forces, in the plural, deliberately. Many American politicians would understandably prefer to focus on the long-term competition with China. But as long as Russia is ruled by Putin, then Russia is at war with us too. So are Belarus, North Korea, Venezuela, Iran, Nicaragua, Hungary, and potentially many others. We might not want to compete with them, or even care very much about them. But they care about us.

They understand that the language of democracy, anti-corruption, and justice is dangerous to their form of autocratic power—and they know that that language originates in the democratic world, our world.”[1]

Chicken Little already sits in a corner of the henhouse trembling as the November election approaches. Will the electorate use its votes to put a stop to totalitarian legislation? Amos is revisiting his will. Guru, on the other hand, feels that global warming will dominate the world’s economies to the point that there will not be time or money to fight political ideologies.

Mariner just watches 70s game shows wearing his college football helmet.

Ancient Mariner

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/05/autocracy-could-destroy-democracy-russia-ukraine/629363/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=atlantic-weekly-newsletter&utm_content=20220403&silverid=%25%25RECIPIENT_ID%25%25&utm_term=This%20Week%20on%20TheAtlanticcom

Jobs

A company called RoboBurger is out with a machine that will make you a burger with custom toppings in six minutes for $6.99, Jennifer A. Kingson reports in What’s Next.

In the food courts of the future, you could avoid human interaction by ordering from a hamburger vending machine, a pizza vending machine and, of course, cupcake vending machines.

The first RoboBurger machine was just installed in the Newport Centre Mall in Jersey City, New Jersey.

Besides mariner’s lamentations about the future regarding the loss of human contact and abuse to the social herding instinct referenced in the last post, he wonders what will happen to all the low income fast food workers as these boxes spread. The employees don’t have any assets to speak of – where is the next underpaid job market?

Artificial intelligence expert and venture capitalist Kai-Fu Lee predicted that 40 percent of the world’s jobs will be replaced by robots in the next 15 to 25 years. That means two out of every five working class people will be out of work at a time when there are no other jobs to be had.

The type of job that is in imminent danger is warehousing people filling orders for online sites like Amazon.  Also at great risk are taxi drivers, uber drivers, and other ride-share drivers. Autonomous self-driving cars will use AI technology to drive and apps to identify who needs to be picked up and dropped off. Payment will be made with a credit-card swipe.

UK’s Institute of the Motor Industry states, ‘As many as 97 percent of active auto mechanics aren’t qualified to work on electric cars and won’t get their hands dirty in the future – robots can handle it.’

Assembly line workers will disappear and, interestingly, so will air traffic controllers.

Close to mariner’s home, librarians will disappear as the tracking system becomes fully automated and virtually all reading will be online or in digitized form.

Remember Nadine? She will be the replacement for payroll clerks, human resource staff, customer service representatives, cashiers (don’t get mariner’s wife started), translators and even mortgage brokers.. . . And this is a small list. Mariner is dumbfounded by what the world will be like in 2050. Guru won’t even talk about it. Our best guess for insight may be a fortune teller, certainly not our government’s octogenarian legislators.

Ancient Mariner

 

 

Pop Psych Again

Readers know mariner enjoys pop psychology’s simplistic but somehow relevant descriptions of various personalities. He has developed another shortcut description for the mind’s many hardwired behaviors.

There are two types of problem solving patterns: one is called analog and the other is called algorithm. An analog is a formula that finds final value based on other values that may be introduced during the process. A simple example is a need to know what the weather is like before one can decide what to do. Another example is when computers learn from repeated processes; each time the analog is run, new information identifies relevant facts and discards irrelevant values. Eventually, a finite value is determined.

A person who problem-solves with an analog is a person who doesn’t know the final solution so they begin filling in values in an effort to know what the solution might be – an unknown at the beginning. The human pattern is a person searching for some fact like what shirt to buy, what carpet to select, what destination for a vacation, browsing in a library looking for something to read or any situation where the final value is unknown. This is a repetitive process and is prone to indecision.

A person who knows what the solution is upfront will execute an algorithm to accomplish the desired, already known conclusion. This person has one solution in mind and does not consider variations. Simply, the person constructs a formula of activity that leads to the predefined answer. The algorithm process is prone to failure if the final solution in fact does not exist. For example, how many times has one gone to the pizza shop for a cheese pizza only to discover the pizza shop is closed?

To humanize this a bit, generally, male shoppers will know exactly what they want, walk into a store, find the item, pay for it and leave. Generally, women will walk into a store looking for variables that may reveal what the item should be. Mariner dislikes depending on sex as a constant but his experience has shown the tendencies to be sexually oriented.

Mariner’s wife uses a term, ‘male pattern blindness’. Basically, it means if the product is not where mariner thought it should be, or its size is unexpected, or its display has been changed, mariner will not find it. Sadly, this is true. Mariner leaves home with a distinct image of the solution and if it isn’t there, the algorithm fails.

On the other hand, mariner’s wife has been searching for new carpeting. She is still searching . . .

When mariner’s wife read the draft of this post, she suggested the analog/algorithm was not new; it is a behavior difference that goes back to the days of hunter/gatherer.

Ancient Mariner

MAYO

Every four or five years, mariner takes his hajj to the Mecca of modern medical diagnostics: the MAYO Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. He has now returned from his visit. It occurs to mariner that this is quite an unusual experience totally unrelated to normal doctor/hospital experiences. So here is an accounting of his recent trip to MAYO:

Imagine that the reader has a large room in their house where a nationally recognized physician from every medical discipline that exists is waiting. They are waiting for the reader to come into the room. Brain problems? Covered. Bone problems? Covered. Any internal organ problems? Covered. Runny nose? Covered. Back pain? Covered. Sore toe? Covered. Dementia? Covered. Depression? Covered . . . The reader gets the idea – name an irregularity, it’s covered.

But the reader’s room may not be large enough to hold the activity of MAYO. Does the reader have a room that can hold ten buildings, five of which have 18 floors and altogether cover eight square blocks? Does the reader’s room have a walking subway system that connects not only all the MAYO buildings with four separate elevator systems but nine hotels and parking, two shopping malls, US Post Office, and four national banks? Perhaps in the backyard does the reader have room for fourteen more adjacent buildings containing innumerable independent health corporations?

Within this small city, the reader first will meet a reception doctor who has a role similar to a primary care physician. The doctor will interview the reader at length based on at least six in-depth questionnaires completed before the reader actually visits MAYO. This doctor will establish and manage the reader’s itinerary. Unlike typical hospitals and clinics where the doctors are at the top of the pecking order and each sets their own schedule, at MAYO the reception doctor calls the shots so that as many tests and consultations as possible can fit into a typical three-day visit. This is how MAYO does its magic for more than 3,000 visitors per day.

Another unusual factor is the huge staffing ratio per physician. The reception doctor provides a chart of photographs showing each person that will have a role in managing the reader’s itinerary; mariner’s doctor had two additional physicians, three registered nurses, seven practical nurses, three administrative specialists, a personal representative for the patient, and a specialist in medical administration.

The on-line physicians had large professional staffs as well. As an example, mariner’s several ultrasound examinations utilized a total of ten young nurses who covered most of his body with ultrasound grease; it took four uniquely trained nurses to perform just one examination, each gathering a different set of data. Each examination goes the extra mile with duplication for accuracy and the use of every kind of examination machine that can be imagined.

In each medical department at the end of examination was a consultation with the lead doctor for that department. Finally, there is a meeting with the original reception doctor who discusses an overall evaluation of the visits, results and prescribed solutions. All in all, mariner had twelve examinations and associated consultations not counting the reception doctor, special trips for preparation, bloodletting and urinalysis.

Three days – done and done.

But all the financial investment, all the expertise, all the attentive, efficient specialists – are not what is remembered about MAYO.

Who is it that must scurry between ten buildings, five of which have 18 similarly numbered floors and four separate elevator systems and altogether cover eight square blocks? Who must navigate a walking subway system that connects not only all the MAYO buildings but nine hotels and parking? Who is it that starts each day in a waiting room by 6:30AM? Who is it that may sit in a waiting room for extended periods of time? Who is it that must find a restaurant for dinner? Who is it that must time bathroom breaks according to available times?

The reader, that’s who!

What the reader will remember is the fatigue, the confusion of which building? Which floor? Which elevator? What time? East or West? Desk number? North or South? Mariner’s itinerary was modified three times. The reader will remember being lost at the intersection of several tunnel options. The reader will remember the long one-third mile walk to the specimen department. The reader will feel the exasperation of driving into the MAYO neighborhood which is not only busy with MAYO traffic but downtown traffic as well and the overall urgency of finding and parking the car in the right garage associated with hotel reservations. Mariner strongly recommends reserving the first day back home as a day of rest and recovery – especially if it’s at the end of a six-hour drive.

There are good memories, though. Setting aside the overhead of being at MAYO, one remembers the hard-working, intelligent, caring staff. The depth of interest in one’s health is remembered and the quality prescriptions for the future are genuine. One can surmise whether trying to get it all done with back home medical support could ever be accomplished – let alone the obviously superior quality. Mariner makes sure that local doctors receive a copy of his full examination as a way of ensuring quality judgment at home.

The pace is steady and tasks require continuous focus by the staff. When mariner was receiving one of his greasings, the nurse at one point asked him to push in his abdomen “real hard like you were pushing a bowel movement”. A few seconds later she turned to look at her computer screen and mariner innocently asked, “What do I do with my bowel movement?” She broke out in great laughter; it was a break from her intense focus. It made mariner realize how hard these staffers work.

Ancient Mariner

A warp in time

Tonight an hour disappears from this day as we set our clocks for DST. Well, not really; it’s more like just changing one’s socks – a different look, same old feet. For gardeners, changing the clock is celebrated similar to Groundhog Day; it is a harbinger of sorts but really doesn’t guarantee anything.

Still, mariner spent some time today planting Echinacea seed trays and puttering among the pots, planning to have a pot display this year. Already up and leafing out is the lettuce row under the grow-lights in the shed. NOAA predicts this is the first week with solid temperatures above 55. Mariner may be able to build a new raised bed.

It’s hard for an old codger to crank up stiff old muscles and weary bones. The winter’s hibernation takes more of a toll every year. But just like a bear rising from the den, it’s good to stretch and rejoin Nature’s world. He refreshed the bird feeders and was pleased to see a Red-Bellied Woodpecker hammering on the suet block.

It still is early to get into full gear. The ground is covered in old snow turned to ice and even if it all melted the water table would be two inches above the grass.

Mariner’s son sent him a fascinating talk by Peter Zeihan, an author and speaker who has broad views about how this hodgepodge world will turn out. Zeihan is a theorist and has done a lot of homework to paint a picture of the power shifts, economics and population changes that will actually drive the world to its future. Zeihan also painted a very interesting picture of Mexico, suggesting they may have the attention of the US more than we may think.

See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMc

Mariner hopes that the reader has an alternative reality of some kind to escape from this terrible, humanized planet.

Wake up early tomorrow!

Ancient Mariner