New signs

Bottom up power: [Politico] “The country’s 900 or so rural electric cooperatives serve remote rural customers and are member-driven, -owned and -controlled. Their nonprofit status has made it hard to make investments in low-carbon energy; unlike investor-owned utilities, they can’t go into debt or sell shares to pay for a solar farm. But getting them off of fossil fuels is essential to meeting climate goals.

Already five co-ops have either left or announced they will leave a major G&T (generation and transmission) called Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, which covers parts of four Western states.”

This tendency is happening in Europe as well. Despite all the ‘effort’ to stop using fossil fuel, oil companies are making record profits. Even Biden is allowing a new oil-drilling operation in Alaska – talk about plutocracy!

Mariner often writes about collective cultures. Collectivism includes concepts like extended families, local government, local cooperatives, community rules for equality of life, etc. To one degree or another, terms for collectives include cooperative, clan, communist, commune, tribe and many other terms denoting a localized group. The image below captures the general spirit:

Just being a small group does not automatically grant goodness. There are many small groups bent on anything but sharing and survival of all – NIMBY is one of countless examples that demonstrate the conflict between collectivism and the imposing needs of a much larger population.

Having learned from many sources over many years, mariner knows Homo sapiens is a tribal species, along with most of its primate ancestors. In past posts, he has cited authors who said things like “The maximum number of individuals that can be familiar to a human is 150”, “The further a person gets from a direct relationship with the environment, the more abusive the relationship becomes” and recently, “I’m first if its fair for everyone”.

When he studies the development of western nations, and the unimaginable wealth that suddenly appeared on the American continents, mariner is reminded of a group of hoodlums during a riot who break into a store and steal all its goods. Such tactics work for the hoodlums if there is plenty to go around. Western Capitalism is the fastest way to reorganize wealth.

Today, however, there is not enough to go around. Capitalism has an idiosyncrasy that doesn’t work anymore: Grow or die.

Because the West has achieved such wonders and accomplishments – especially when the achievements provide convenience, collective terminology is not popular and its advantages often are discounted. It is this resistance that makes it good news to mariner that there is a breakaway of self-owned electric companies from large conglomerates. There are other appropriate concepts of management that will work better in these challenging times. Bigger may not be better.

There are many more sociological points of interest but mariner can become boring.

Ancient Mariner

Is Big Better?

The news from every quarter, whether conservative, liberal, science, democracy or dictatorship, it is the same: There isn’t enough to go around. An increasing number of nations are participating in or pontificating war as a path to sustain order. In both the East and the West, social mores are collapsing. The economies of wealthy nations are vulnerable. Hoarding behavior within plutocracies, corporatocracies, oligarchies and martial command nations prevail in global policy making. Yet the global number of homeless, starving and abused people is rising; small historical cultures are disappearing and conflict with the Earth’s biosphere grows more volatile.

Since 1980, the rate at which poor nations are collapsing has doubled, largely from the burden of climate change and the hoarding philosophy prevalent among all nations which in turn minimizes assistance.

The most frequent causes cited by public sources are unrealistic tax formulas, cultural abuse (woke, racism, Uyghurs, Moslems, on and on . . .), national cultures ignoring the needs of large populations, and antiquated judicial practices. A new one is artificial intelligence with its self-interest in managing public behavior for profit.

It occurs to mariner that the common denominator to all these dysfunctions is that they are controlled top-down. A simple contradiction would be democracy, a government that is managed by the individual citizen through local, state and federal elections – clearly a bottom-up philosophy today being managed by a plutocracy – a top-down philosophy that makes it so expensive for a local candidate to campaign that only national deep pockets can dictate who can run in local elections.

If one were to examine Earth’s evolution of every plant and animal, compressed into the instinct of every cell is a behavior that would be survival by bottom-up practices. In other words, survival of the fittest at SUSTAINING THE SPECIES. Opossums can only behave in a way that would be good for any opossum. Even the large flocks of birds, herds of cattle and swarms of fish all live in an equal but very personal state of survival: me first but only if it’s fair for the others. Of course, these creatures don’t reason this conclusion, it is in their genes.

Originally, sustaining the species was in the genes of the primates and likely still is but the thorn is the ability to reason, to perceive reality not bound by direct reality – not bound by a balance between the biosphere and physical dependence. Should we curse the first primate that conceived a tool not provided by nature? Of course not. However, should we curse the first primate who discovered how to grow more wheat than was needed and hoarded it? Perhaps, that was not an act to sustain the species.

It may be that the last structured society to sustain the evolutionary rule, ‘me first if it’s fair’, was the Chinese culture which existed around the beginning of the fifth century BCE. The period was before empire-building. It was a society of self-sufficient towns of about 250-1,000 people, likely all related in extended families. The economy was based on a collective style where everyone had a role in sustainability and no one went without.

The idea of a collective economy arose in Europe, if only briefly, with Anabaptist communism; there are remnants today in The United States and Europe but the overwhelming presence of modern commerce is too much to sustain pockets of collectivism. In the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, there were numerous attempts at collectivism, the most notable being the Commune movement in the 1960s. A few sympathizers maintain that white man forced native Americans into an independent collective economy; recent news articles have addressed the invasion of commercial interests into Indian sources of locally sourced food, e.g., salmon.

֎ If, indeed, ‘top-down’ management is the issue, could we ever return to bottom-up? Not likely. It is very difficult to imagine what world order will look like in 100-150 years. There are so many substantive forces changing at the moment that it is easy to imagine an Armageddon catastrophe. Short of that, there are many presumably unmanageable situations that politics may not be able to manage. For example:

Population. Simply said, there are far too many humans on Earth to be supported by a natural ratio to Earth’s biosphere nor by any industrial or technological solution. The following quote is from the Smithsonian:

One can speculate that, at least in the United States and Europe, the worker rebellions are the beginning of a new politic.

Uncontrolled corporatism. The last time the Federal Government knew enough to tell corporations what to do was the generation in 1982 that forced Bell to split its empire into smaller independent companies. Before that, in 1911 Standard Oil was forced to split into 34 companies. Given the political power of Google, Amazon, Facebook, etc., not to mention weaponized Plutocratic political parties, it may not be possible to restore bottom-up economy.

Instant global communication. It is a marvel for anyone to log on to the internet and instantly acquire knowledge, news and ideas from around the globe. The nature of this instantaneousness is that there is no need to stop at a national border to show a visa; there is no need to have independent corporations operating in diverse nations of the world; there is no need for anyone to be loyal (AKA collective) to local markets when one can instantaneously purchase cheaper goods in Asia – no Silk Road needed. The most common evidence of this at the local level is the demise of storefronts. A nation’s borders may not mean much as commerce becomes global and can skirt or otherwise dominate national politics.

Global Warming. This is the big change. With the flick of her weather finger, Mother Earth can cause billions of dollars in property damage, increase homelessness, and disrupt government budgets. Further, she has demonstrated how easy it is to change agriculture to desert or a pleasant valley to a lava flow. Politics are irrelevant – no nation can own her or avoid her. Ask Pakistan.

Will there be Armageddon? You’ll have to prove it to mariner.

Ancient Mariner.

 

At the root

$1 in 1980 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $3.63 today, an increase of $2.63 over 43 years. The dollar had an average inflation rate of 3.04% per year between 1980 and today, producing a cumulative price increase of 263.07%.

This means that today’s prices are 3.63 times as high as average prices since 1980, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index. A dollar today only buys 27.5¢ of what it could buy in 1980.

Perhaps this may be the key issue underlying all the unrest and agitation in the citizenry today. For example, the knotty family issue of not being able to pay for childcare so one parent is forced to stay home rather than work or at most work parttime. This phenomenon undercuts the Federal Government’s statistics suggesting low unemployment  and undercuts the high employment rate because of job-hopping – looking for a job that yields more than 27¢ an hour versus an inflated $1.00.

Another troublesome issue is the cynical term ‘woke’. It is a vague term that had its beginning in the Black Lives Matter movement, suggesting that a black person had become aware of the exclusive social system in America; Currently, the activist conservatives use it to represent the opposite: Woke now represents an out-of-date cultural position on race and homosexuality that needs to be controlled. Representing opposites make woke a confusing term.

Taking a broader view, woke by any definition suggests that the working classes are not motivated as much by sociological concepts as they are about financial security and, subconsciously, representing a respected element of the national ethos. The collapse of the democratic party in this century was caused by the assumption that being respected means one has a college degree – the party forgot its roots. To add insult to injury, College tuition has outpaced general inflation by 2.5% – no wonder the Federal Government tries to add college indebtedness to the political fray.

Indirectly, the indebtedness of the Federal Government has made it impossible for government to consider discretionary programs to ease the salary issue. This is because Donald Trump raised the debt ceiling by 25% during his presidency and sweetened tax breaks for the wealthy. Indirectly, the lack of enforcing antitrust laws has added to the salary deficiency as well.

Now let’s talk about housing, health and retirement . . .

Ancient Mariner

Bang, you’re dead and you, and you.

Guns. They are the most important issue among U.S. citizens today. Those citizens want something done tout suite. Yes, citizens are stuck with a weaponized and intergenerational Congress but that ain’t all. Read this clip from Politico:

“When Texas resident Zackey Rahimi asked a federal appellate court to review his conviction for violating a federal law that prohibits those under protective orders for domestic abuse from owning guns, he made a sweeping claim: that the law violated his Second Amendment rights. That argument was bogus, a three-judge panel said last summer.

But now, the same court agrees with him — and has vacated his conviction after invalidating a federal law that barred alleged domestic abusers like Rahimi, who stands accused of assaulting his girlfriend, from possessing firearms. Advocates said the law, which can no longer be enforced in Texas, Louisiana or Mississippi, was crucial in keeping victims safe.

So what changed? In a word: the Supreme Court.

Just two weeks after the denial of Rahimi’s appeal last summer, the nation’s highest court decided its first major gun case in a decade. In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, the court’s 6-3 conservative majority held that individuals have a broad right to carry guns outside their homes, striking down a New York law that required them to show cause in order to receive open-carry permits.”

Once an individual makes it to the Supreme Court, they are untouchable for life. Further, they are appointed by a weaponized, intergenerational Congress. In the foreseeable future, there is no chance the nation would allow or survive a Constitutional Convention. There is only one action that will loosen the SCOTUS pattern of depending on antique conditions that were relevant in 1776: push for Congress to rewrite the “appointed for life” clause so that all judges, from every level of court, are subject to term limits, perhaps twenty years. (Incidentally, mariner has advocated tenure-based term limits for Congress as well).

As to the issue of guns on the streets, paper trails (record checks, etc.,) will never work – they are too easily circumvented and will lead to an active black market. The most promising approach would make retailers and parents of minors liable for criminal abuse by customers to which the retailer sold firearms. This tactic was attempted recently against the gun manufacturers but, of course, failed in our Plutocratic Congress.

However, this idea of imposing liability on those who deliver unsociable products is popular now as Congress has been forced by public opinion to address privacy and security in the tech industry. Europe is way ahead of the U.S. in using this method.

Never vote for anyone older than 55. Times are changing too fast.

Ancient Mariner

More misguiding information taught in schools

It steadily is in the news that public school curricula are teaching the wrong things. Even in colleges there is pressure to stop teaching liberal arts because it is useless and encourages meritocracy. Much of this interest in curricula is political of course, so mariner took it upon himself to analyze just a small piece of information taught in early grades that affects the children into their adulthood. To wit:

 

Mariner engaged in personal, scientific analysis of this poem. He discovered it is laced with blatant lies, and attacks the benefit of elitism as a stabilizing force in society.

As to the blackbirds in a pie, the author just didn’t know what they were saying. Did the author even try to bake a pie with blackbirds in it? Mariner did. Trust him when he says blackbirds do not sing after they’ve been baked; They smell God awful, too. Just the labor of catching 24 blackbirds makes the whole concept of a blackbird pie fallacious. Even claiming that blackbirds sing is a lie – they squawk.

Then the author over emphasizes the difference between the king, his wife, and the maid in the garden – suggesting that the right of the king to have a pie with blackbirds fawning over him, the queen to have bread and honey while a blackbird bites off the nose of the maid is a deliberate exaggeration of the differences in lifestyle between an honest employer and his employee.

It’s enough to make mariner want to run for the school board – almost.

Ancient Mariner

Stuff

֎ Wiley hit a home run with this one:

             Mariner is reminded of the analogy of a pig wearing lipstick. Modern humans are proud of their lipstick, but they are still pigs.

֎ Here’s a no-brainer for mariner’s intelligent readership:

Why is this number unique?   8,549,176,320

֎ Amazon surely noticed that the Chinese were using balloons. Do you think they may start deliveries with balloons rather than quadcopters? That may be cheaper than building quadcopters. The future of storefront shopping is becoming clear: driverless wheeled boxes on the streets, quadcopters buzzing people and balloons blocking the view of traffic. Then there’s the delivery people in trucks, cars, bikes, scooters and motorbikes. Who needs Disneyland?

How do you feel about a female Pope? Many early religions had female gods in charge, e.g., Cybele. Under any circumstances, can the Christian religion come back?

Ancient Mariner

The Big Picture

Like the scene on the battlefront in a war, there is much smoke, flying debris, destruction and conflict, but the scene is a battle for the ethos of the United States. Mariner decided to get above the commotion by sitting on one of 8,000 satellites in low Earth orbit and looking down at the fray.

Battles for ethos occur, on average, every 41 years. Unfortunately, every change in ethos included a military war.[1] The nation has begun another battle for ethos, launched by the election of Donald Trump.

Ethos is a word that describes the innate spirit and purpose of an institution; in this case the institution is the United States. Ethos is an attitude carried by every citizen without conscious awareness yet it shapes the self-perception of what every citizen believes is a national role in society, morality and among other nations.

The political energy required to shift a national ethos is immense. It takes time, economic transition, generational adaptation, international acceptance and a period of stability. Even so, there are citizens who continue to oppose change for many reasons, e.g., racism and, currently, Reaganomics. In each transition of ethos there are always progressives and conservatives but a third issue is necessary – usually requiring cultural adaptation. Today, it is the global pressure on the role of a nation where technology ignores boundaries and global warming threatens global economics.

When will military war occur? It seems there is a point where the old ways want no more change and like the way things are whereas new behaviors, economic opportunity and moral stress want to move on.

Will war emerge in Taiwan and the Pacific Rim?

Will extended war erupt in Europe versus Russia?

Is it possible that war could erupt in the U.S. between populated states and Dixie all over again – a war fought in the Constitution?

Could it be an economic war between plutocracy and democracy?

Sitting on this satellite, mariner perceives one thing: It is far from over.

Ancient Mariner

[1]

Independence 1812, the third issue was becoming an independent nation.

Civil 1861, the third issue was recognizing civil rights for African Americans, but the war actually was over the complete dismantling of the Dixie economy.

WW1 1914, the third issue was a shift in the role of nations; nations had international responsibilities not constricted by oceans or continents; economies adapted to international trade that was not colonialism.

Vietnam 1975, the third issue is frequently called the ‘useless’ war; it seemed useless in that the liberal era of American politics was rapidly disappearing. By 1980 President Reagan launched a conservative economy that has lasted until current times. Now, forty years later, Trump and the invasion of the capital suggests the economy may shift.

2016, a war has yet to erupt but likely will. At no time in American history has the nation faced so many change factors affecting the nation’s ethos.

Population

For the last few days mariner has been poking about in information about global population. As a general introduction to the subject, below is a clip from the New Statesman, a British web magazine:

“Japan’s prime minister Kishida Fumio warned last week that the country’s demographic crisis was approaching a tipping point. “Our nation is on the cusp of whether it can maintain its societal functions,” Kishida told the Japanese parliament on 23 January. “It is now or never when it comes to policies regarding births and child-rearing – it is an issue that simply cannot wait any longer.”

This is not an overstatement. Japan already has one of the world’s oldest populations (second only to the city-state of Monaco), and it is ageing rapidly. In 2022, the number of births fell below 800,000 for the first time since records began (in 1899), eight years earlier than the government had predicted. This compares to more than 2 million births per year during the baby boom of the 1970s. Life expectancy has also increased. This means that almost a third of the population – 30 per cent – is now aged 65 or above according to the World Bank, raising the cost of social security programmes, such as pensions and medical care, while the proportion of The working-age people who pay into these programmes is shrinking.”

This perspective pretty much describes the situation for virtually every developed nation. In the United States, the U.S. Census Bureau released estimates showing the nation’s 65-and-older population has grown rapidly since 2010, driven by the aging of Baby Boomers born between 1946 and 1964. The 65-and-older population has increased by over a third during the last decade.

Couple that with Japan’s other concern about fewer workers to support discretionary funding for things like retirement, Social Security and health care, and the U.S. clearly is on the same path as Japan.

Mariner’s interest in global population began as just a curiosity but the elephant in the room forces a serious fear about the United States comparable even to the devastation of global warming.

The elephant is the ultra-conservative movement in the U.S. Their focus is to reduce taxes, attack Social Security and stop immigration – the big three associated with the subject of population. Does the electorate prefer stupid, self-centered legislators? Consider George Santos, Marjorie Taylor Greene et al. Is the atmosphere in legislative chambers filled with debilitating drugs?

One day, Alfie, the government will represent the best interests of the nation, but not soon.

Ancient Mariner

It is over.

The battle to sustain individuality and Homo sapiens authenticity has been won by AI. Watch the following clip then read on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s11k0yAA8ZQ

Already AI is good enough to write novels, essays, legal briefs and singlehandedly manage most trades on the stock exchange. The ability for anyone to write any style of entertainment is just one database away.

With the invention of the gene splitter Crispr, AI will be able to pool all human variations into a massive database so parents can pick any child they want. Who wants a Donald Trump lookalike? How about triplets that are the Kingston Trio?

But then AI will perceive that it is much simpler to have one version of humans; just think how efficient that would be for politics, medicine, and one would need only one football team.

Perhaps it will be less expensive if humans had no need to travel.

Welcome to Matrix.

Goodbye.

Ancient Mariner