The Winds of War

Mariner was checking out the streaming news channels and online news sources earlier today. Getting to the point, the United States and NATO are saying Putin MUST not win. The confrontational tone definitely has risen among every moderator and guest across television news agencies. It’s as if someone burst a large boil and the belligerent juice of war has suddenly emerged.

Even the Economist magazine, published in Great Britain, has a cover and articles saying Putin must not win. Perhaps the West, having evidence of inhuman atrocities, has said, “Enough is enough.”

Ironically, mariner in the last post was reviewing a shift in intellectual attitudes about global democracy versus autocracy but suddenly today rebellion has come to the fore. The intensity of retribution across the board is to put Russia back where it really belongs, a small economy with a history of abusive government, an abusing oligarchy, and to get rid of Vladimir Putin.

Perhaps the open Russian support by Belarus sparked fears that this war already has spread beyond the Ukraine. In any case, world war may be in the offing.

Be prepared.

Ancient Mariner

Is growing autocracy a world threat?

Suddenly many of mariner’s sources have written articles about the growing number of autocracies around the world. Autocracy and democracy do not get along well and Putin’s immoral assault on democratic Ukraine is an example of the difference in national behavior between the two political ideologies.

Matching headlines with Putin is the growing autocratic momentum in the United States. Add two or three new dictators elected in other nations in the last few months and journalists see a trend. Will the United States be able to vaccinate itself against autocracy? Will the world’s democracies be willing to engage in physical war to stem the trend? No less than The Atlantic in May’s issue has published a major article by May Applebaum about this concern:

“There is no natural liberal world order, and there are no rules without someone to enforce them. Unless democracies defend themselves together, the forces of autocracy will destroy them. I am using the word forces, in the plural, deliberately. Many American politicians would understandably prefer to focus on the long-term competition with China. But as long as Russia is ruled by Putin, then Russia is at war with us too. So are Belarus, North Korea, Venezuela, Iran, Nicaragua, Hungary, and potentially many others. We might not want to compete with them, or even care very much about them. But they care about us.

They understand that the language of democracy, anti-corruption, and justice is dangerous to their form of autocratic power—and they know that that language originates in the democratic world, our world.”[1]

Chicken Little already sits in a corner of the henhouse trembling as the November election approaches. Will the electorate use its votes to put a stop to totalitarian legislation? Amos is revisiting his will. Guru, on the other hand, feels that global warming will dominate the world’s economies to the point that there will not be time or money to fight political ideologies.

Mariner just watches 70s game shows wearing his college football helmet.

Ancient Mariner

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/05/autocracy-could-destroy-democracy-russia-ukraine/629363/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=atlantic-weekly-newsletter&utm_content=20220403&silverid=%25%25RECIPIENT_ID%25%25&utm_term=This%20Week%20on%20TheAtlanticcom

Ranked Voting – 2

Mariner apologizes for not making clear the manner by which a candidate wins an election in ranked voting. A straightforward demonstration follows.

To keep matters simple, an even 1,000 citizens cast their vote. That means for a candidate to win, they must garner at least 501 votes. In yesterday’s post, a ballot is shown with the ranking one voter selected.

Once all the ballots have been received, the election officials total the votes first by those with a ‘1’ ranking to see if anyone obtained at least 501 votes. It is conceivable that one candidate is so popular that they garnered enough ‘1’ votes to reach the minimum of 501 but if not, for each candidate, the officials add in all the ‘2’ votes – again to see if any candidate, with a combination of 1st and 2nd – obtained 501 or more votes. Typically, 1st and 2nd votes would total at least 501 votes. In close votes it may be necessary to add in all the ranks to achieve a majority. Below is the final score for each candidate as they were ranked in each voter’s ballot.

Typically, there are the two dominant parties who accumulate the largest number of votes so it is likely that by combining the first two ranks, some candidate likely will have won. Note, however, that the candidate who won in this example could only have done so by adding together three ranked votes – ‘1’ plus ‘2’ plus ’3’.

That’s how it works but the beauty is in the power of broader representation. The Green party candidate received 200 votes, nothing to sneeze at in local politics. Further, Jack Spratt knows he must depend on Green party values to stay elected. In this respect, mariner believes policy influence is spread out from Washington, D.C.

Ancient Mariner

 

Ranked Voting

In 2008 mariner and his wife attended the Iowa democratic caucus (primary) to vote for Martin O’Malley. We were not allowed to cast our votes. We were the only two present who wanted to vote for this candidate. We had to switch to two more popular candidates to assure a majority for the winning candidate. Of course we did not.

As the reader may know, mariner is skeptical that the concept of ‘one person, one vote’ exists. As 63 percent of the American public attests today, there is little confidence in the two-party system.

The most common complaints:

  • Both parties are owned by big money, billionaires, the oil industry, etc.
  • Both parties have destroyed valid party representation through severe gerrymandering.
  • Both parties control party affiliation through big budget domination; third parties and local favorites don’t have a chance.
  • Voters feel they must vote against what they fear rather than what they would prefer – even if a preferred third party is on the ballot.
  • While more Americans voted in 2020 than in any other presidential election in 120 years, 33 percent, 1 in 3 voters, did not.

Every once in a while mariner rummages through obscure magazines and online sources looking for alternatives to the two party system. Lately, a new phenomenon has popped up: 50 jurisdictions in the United States have switched to ranked voting. Ranked voting means the voter can rank several candidates according to preference. A voter can cast a vote for a preferred party first then rank a second vote for another party and can rank every candidate on the ballot. This distributes the final count to the candidate with the most votes by rank rather than a simple majority. Even if a candidate comes in second or third, they may have enough votes to be influential in government politics..

This simple modification greatly reduces the advantages of gerrymandering. Further, third parties have a chance to gather votes as a first choice because the voter feels that the voter’s second, more dominant party still gets a vote.

Today’s citizenry is aware that elected candidates are part of a national plutocracy. Or, they could vote for the far right crazies if they are of that ilk. Otherwise, not even an independent billionaire (Tom Steyer) can campaign successfully against the Koch Brothers and Elon Musk.

Reflecting back on Congressman Ro Khanna’s book about dignity in government, ranked voting isn’t exactly his perspective but mariner believes that allowing multiple parties to inject special voter interests is a way to increase participation beyond Washington D.C.

None of the fifty districts includes multiple subordinate districts but if enough state legislators promote ranked voting, it may become popular enough to generate some legitimacy to what frequently is called ‘one person, one vote’.

Ancient Mariner

Church versus State –

– in Afghanistan. The Muslim practices relating to women are severely punishing; not only physically but emotionally and with life-long debilitation. In Afghanistan the church side dominates the state side without question. Note the following excerpts from the Associated Press:

“Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers unexpectedly decided against reopening schools Wednesday to girls above the sixth grade, reneging on a promise and opting to appease their hard-line base at the expense of further alienating the international community. The international community has urged Taliban leaders to reopen schools and give women their right to public space.”

Islam dominates every aspect of daily life. Very frequently government legislators and judges are imams (priests) as well. When the United States wrote the original Constitution, it declared that religion was free to practice as it desired and the state had the same mandate. Fortunately, the Reformation had begun beforehand or the U.S. may have found itself in a situation similar to Afghanistan. The reader may recall the bitter confrontations between early ‘denominations’. The Christian religion absolutely is totalitarian and can muscle in on the State’s authority with little difficulty. This occurs consistently in the United States because ‘freedom of religion’ was free to run without a leash.

The clash between the freedom guaranteed to the people via the vote and the mandates of religious practice are in constant battle, to wit: abortion, gay rights, segregation, state practices like marriage, zoning, tax shelters and advocating conservative causes like Trumpism and immigration – the last two clearly matters of state.

Given the totalitarian conflict between church and state, money grubbing between capitalism and socialism, national demolition between Trump and the electorate, existence of privacy between big data and the individual citizen and the imminent flooding of Tiger Woods’ 41 million dollar home in Florida, We the People are in good shape. Indeed good shape – would you rather live in Afghanistan? Or, sigh, Denmark?

Ancient Mariner

 

An example of totalitarianism

In early January, a day before students returned from winter break, Jeremy Glenn, the superintendent of the Granbury Independent School District in North Texas, told a group of librarians he’d summoned to a district meeting room that he needed to speak from his heart.

“I want to talk about our community,” Glenn said, according to a recording of the Jan. 10 meeting obtained and verified by NBC News, ProPublica and The Texas Tribune. Glenn explained that Granbury, the largest city in a county where 81% of residents voted for then-President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election, is “very, very conservative.”

He also made it clear that his concerns specifically included books with LGBTQ themes, even if they do not describe sex. Those comments, according to legal experts, raise concerns about possible violations of the First Amendment and federal civil rights laws that protect students from discrimination based on their gender and sexuality.

“And I’m going to take it a step further with you,” he said, according to the recording. “There are two genders. There’s male, and there’s female. And I acknowledge that there are men that think they’re women. And there are women that think they’re men. And again, I don’t have any issues with what people want to believe, but there’s no place for it in our libraries.”

 It is easy to generalize whenever someone uses a word that ends in ‘ism’. Such words are considered too general at best and too nerdy at worst but they represent concrete behaviors experienced by people every day.

The above mandate given by the superintendent of the Granbury Independent School District is a clear example of totalitarianism. In a quick thought, one could say that this is democracy in action and the Superintendent is representing his majority. In a subtle way, however, the rights of the minority have been declared illegal by a person representing the government. One premise for democracy is that democracies do not go to war against each other; people are never a political instrument of convenience or prejudice. Democracy is a live and let live world.

If one abhors homosexual literature, fine. If one relates to homosexual literature, fine – but one should never, in a democracy, exclude the other.

The United States has begun the twenty-first century saturated in totalitarianism – to the point that most legislatures, state and Federal, can’t come to terms with the diversity found in 300 million citizens.

Ancient Mariner

 

The New Economics

Changing culture of world economics. What began in 2017 as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade/cultural liaison between eleven nations, has become the new standard for international trade in the future (street name: supply chains). Yesterday the New York Times wrote “There may well be a fracturing of the world into economic blocs, as countries and companies gravitate to ideological corners with distinct markets and pools of labor.”

The difference in the 21st century is the binding power of the Internet. A good example is the impact on Russia as the entire European Union, currently dependent on Russia for 80% of its oil and gas, has signed an agreement to depend on sources other than Russia. This could not be done so quickly without the tools of social media, the ‘Cloud’ and satellite integration.

Further, culture plays a larger role than it did in the last century: democracies are uniting around other democracies; similarly, autocracies are uniting as well (e.g., China’s Belt and Road Initiative). One of the unresolved issues in future economics is the impact of global warming – today more than half of all nations have failing economies that cannot carry the impact of climate change. Somewhere in the shadows the rich nations will have to make economic shifts in priorities, e.g., in current tax imbalances, discounted trade agreements and larger support of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Guru suggests this conflagration of shifts will make three nations the owners of all meaningful supply chains: United States, China and India.

Referencing again the New York Times quote, their term ‘fracturing’ suggests many troubling but small nations may be at the center of high energy confrontation. For example, Cuba, Taiwan, Mexico, Venezuela, Iraq, Nigeria, Myanmar, etc. Other medium-sized nations like Hungary, Greece and Brazil will use politics to gain favorable economic relationships between supply chains.

Ancient Mariner

A Topsy-Turvy World

Imagine the disruption caused to Ukraine society by Putin’s war. Then remove the physical destruction by the military but retain the confusion, the lack of understanding about what is happening, the confusion of not knowing what is right and true. Welcome to America.

The United States citizen struggles with rising totalitarianism, is confused by the mindset of authoritarian logic in a democratic nation, dodges cultural conflict between church and state, and wanders in a land without public rules for common behavior. Even corporate America is taking exception to governments that willy-nilly legislate new ethical standards without checking the greater social mindset:

֎ Axios reports: It’s a rare event when a change to a company’s insurance benefits makes news. But that’s what happened this week when Citigroup mentioned in a regulatory filing that it would cover travel expenses for U.S. employees seeking abortions.

Citi appears to be one of the first public companies to officially update its employee healthcare policy in response to the changing legal landscape.

Apple, which has a big presence in Texas, confirmed to Axios that its health insurance policies cover abortions, including travel fees if needed.

֎ Gallup contributed that it may be difficult to think much about the concept of happiness in troubled times like these, with a war raging in Ukraine and the world still battling its biggest health crisis in a century.

But this year’s World Happiness Report — released on Friday — shows these tough times have led to more people helping others. And this surge in benevolence may actually end up making the world a happier place in the long run.

The annual report, which relies heavily on Gallup World Poll data, documents strong growth in three “acts of kindness” during the pandemic: helping strangers, volunteering time to organizations and donating money to charities. The percentages of people who said they engaged in these activities increased in every part of the world — exceeding their pre-pandemic levels by almost 25%.

֎ Axios went further to note why it matters: We often celebrate those who break things, invent things or build things with bravado. But the author has learned more studying two men of uncommon modesty: Mikey and the late Fred Rogers, a.k.a. Mister Rogers.

Mike is a two-time founder, Politico and Axios, and was featured on the cover of The New York Times Magazine as “The Man the White House Wakes Up To.”

“Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood” spanned 1,000 episodes — at the time, the longest-running and most popular children’s program.

Keep the faith

The two are eerily similar in subtlety and selflessness. Their common gifts do not come easily to most:

Authentic humility. There’s a total absence of look-at-me, spotlight-seeking you see in others. They position themselves as servants or beneficiaries, not superiors. They both make others feel in conversation like the most important person in the world.

Intense interest in others. Both ask so many questions it initially seems like deflection, even insincerity. They’re maddeningly private. But then you realize their superpower is wild curiosity about what really makes others tick. Think of all you learn when you’re intensely listening.

Unusual optimism. I am a skeptic by training, realist by default; Mike always sees the goodness in people and situations. Mister Rogers did the same, usually circling back to the child inside all of us.

Minimalist living. No fancy mansions. No splashy sports cars. Hell, Mike doesn’t even have his own car or cable service. He spends more on donuts for Axios colleagues than clothes.

Deep faith. Most of the impressive people I meet in life hold deep belief in something beyond themselves. And it shows without saying.

Try it … Fred Rogers had this cheesy if wonderful ritual he would encourage others to do: Close your eyes for one minute, and picture all the people who helped you get where you are today.

The quoted material above is just a sampling taken from web news, digital journals, magazines and newspapers. Political sociologists cite the importance of ‘unity’ while others have begun to use words like ’compassion’ and ‘respect’.

Dare we hope that the electorate will use these thoughts to straighten free roaming governments and infuse scruples into an indifferent social media?

Ancient Mariner

Quick Shots

Mariner will be away from the keyboard for a few days. Here are some quickies as he leaves.

Favorably rated nations

Cities with the most listed Million Dollar Homes

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Ancient Mariner

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ancient Mariner

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investigating Dignity

In a recent post mariner discussed a book by Congressman Ro Khanna, Dignity in a Digital Age. Very generally, Khanna promoted the idea that legislative issues should receive broader input from around the nation rather than being an isolated, deal-making process within the Congress. The Congressman’s ideology suggested legislating ‘dignity’ rather than ‘rights’.

Mariner suggested that some serious reorganization of the Constitution would be necessary before other parts of the culture could participate. That being said, the idea of protecting every citizen’s dignity has stayed with mariner, puzzling what it really means to legislate dignity rather than rights.

In the New Testament Jesus assures his believers that God guarantees dignity even to the least of us. Each of us, no matter how poor, forgotten or abused we may be, we are all equal and as the Beatitudes suggest, ‘blessed’ in the eyes of God. [That’s what Jesus says; don’t hold mariner accountable for today’s ‘Christians’]

The Christian doctrine suggests that giving dignity to others is a path to self-satisfaction and depends on God’s grace as a dignified reward.

The founding language for the new United States suggests, ‘life, liberty, pursuit of happiness, freedom of religion’ and ‘all men are created equal’. Bullhockey. This was deliberate language to ward off theocracy, monarchy, social discrimination and any version thereof that the King or the Church of England may have mandated. In truth, the United States was created to run a nation that owned a continent. Implied liberties were that the US had an entire continent of riches for everyone – go for it!

From the beginning to this very day, dignity = success. In the last forty years, dignity has come to mean I am f***ing rich.

The turmoil of the disenfranchised in the United States has led to a collapse in labor, a rejection of traditional national values and a questionable future as artificial intelligence strips away traditional forms of even meager financial security.

‘Rights’ have become threadbare if not meaningless. Mariner invites his readers to contemplate where the path may be to restore dignity to all American citizens.

Ancient Mariner