Category Archives: Politics

It isn’t what goes around, it’s what has always been

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The disarray, some may say discontent, that the United States suffers today has been around for a while. Mariner has said that the damage to the American Dream began with the Reagan administration when regulations and legislation were loosened to allow corporations to invest in foreign markets and at the same time diminished obligations to employees.

Over forty years of discontent in the labor classes yields social discrimination and the splintering of national unity. Labor class unrest led to the militaristic behavior found in the role of police today. The police brutality evidenced in the murder of George Floyd in Minnesota became the new emoji for an old problem.

Flash back to 1991 – 30 years ago:

In 1991, after a drunk-driving automobile chase, four officers struck Rodney King with batons fifty-three times. The LAPD initially charged King with “felony evading,” but later dropped the charge. On his release, he spoke to reporters from his wheelchair, with his injuries evident: a broken right leg in a cast, his face badly cut and swollen, bruises on his body, and a burn area to his chest where he had been jolted with a 50,000-volt stun gun. Three of the four officers were acquitted.

The incident invoked the LA riots which eventually killed 63 people.

In 1992 Rodney became famous for saying, “Why can’t we all just get along?”

Before the Nation’s cultural breakdown can begin healing, Congress must repair the Reagan policy that split the American Dream. Until then the xenophobic organizations will not subside; racial injustice will not be cured; economic fairness among the Nation’s citizens will not occur.

֎ Restore the unions.

֎ Raise minimum wage to be commensurate with inflation since 1980.

֎ Provide universal health care.

֎ Significantly raise taxes on the wealthy and large corporations to release privately stored, useless cash to the government so it can restore the middle and lower classes who live desperate lives today.

֎ Significantly increase the job market by utilizing opportunities offered by inadequate infrastructure, growing damage from climate change and by firm enforcement of antitrust laws.

֎ Repair a dysfunctional housing policy that locks out first time buyers and lower income families.

֎ Promote international economic participation with agreements similar to the recent Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

Some critics may claim these suggestions are a promotion of new-age socialism. In fact, it is a restoration to a time in history that ceased existing forty years ago.

Ancient Mariner

New horizons in change

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The following two paragraphs are from World Review, an online magazine sponsored by New Statesman, a British publishing Company. It makes the case that conservative political forces around the world are drifting even further to the right and shredding centrist policies, allowing xenophobic and militaristic values to influence government policy. The American press is making the same case for US politics. Is this yet another tsunami of change confronting us in this troublesome century?

“. . . Just as central a place in histories of the Trump disaster must be reserved for those same, once-respectable conservative politicians who have enabled the president to whip up the chaos they now, finally, deign to criticise: the Lindsay Grahams, the Mitch McConnells, the Mike Pences, the Marco Rubios.

This pattern is not just confined to the US. Much has been written about the nationalist populist wave of recent years. Yet surely more powerful than any individual political victory by the populists themselves is the way they have co-opted and lastingly changed parts of the supposedly mainstream right (or threaten to do so). In Europe, conservatives in countries like Austria, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands and France have adopted the language and tone of the hard-right. Old cordons sanitaires[1] have broken down, with extremists entering coalitions or otherwise cooperating with more established parties at local or national levels. Brazil’s hard-right president Jair Bolsonaro came to power with the help of the centre-right Brazilian Social Democracy Party. The turns towards authoritarianism in India, Turkey and Hungary have all been led from within established conservative parties.” [By Jeremy Cliffe, International Editor]

This is not the time in global history or that of the US specifically to introduce destructive social influences. At a time when technology, economics and global climate all face unknown frontiers of change that we can’t begin to define; at a time when collaboration, factual reality and common sense are the tools that are needed, will the future be achievable?

Ancient Mariner

[1] From French, a barrier designed to prevent a disease or other undesirable condition from spreading

It’s a New World

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While the western world has survived the beginning of the twenty-first century more or less intact, getting organized for the rest of the century makes it seem as if the destruction of the Middle East is more descriptive.

Hopefully, Guru envisions a burst of energy, jobs and economy as the whole world responds to climate change, repairing infrastructure and shifting world economies in a way that will stave off international disruption through abuse of the Internet and Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the global imbalance between the wealthy and the starving.

These tasks all are international and the wringing of hands and claims of the apocalypse will be part of the experience. It will be like training one’s wayward feet to fit into a new pair of shoes – if not painful at least uncomfortable.

Nations and their resources, unfortunately, do not drive the schedule of recovery. Every issue is at a critical stage such that avoiding catastrophe is the order of the day rather than casually planning new ideas with time to perfect them.

For the sake of brevity, mariner will describe only one issue – the one issue that ignores politics, economies and cultures; it is the most disruptive of the several critical issues: Climate Change.

We should be thankful that the pandemic has given the world practice at dealing with worldwide apolitical issues. Like the pandemic, climate change is no longer an issue of local environmental regulation and politics. It has become a global condition, an instability at the core of an environment that sustains all life. It is difficult to get excited about climate change because it is so slow in the manner by which it changes the environment. Mariner compares it to how sloping shoulders develop over decades of aging, one day at a time, one tiny increment of spine curvature each day. Then suddenly there is back pain and limitations of flexibility. The world already feels the pain of climate change.

Flooding of low lying land around the world already has become a crisis in many parts of the world: 11 million people in Bangladesh have lost two years of crops as the tides invade and stay longer each season; many populated islands around the world will disappear in this century; six large key cities in the United State will be overrun by rising seas – Miami already has in place city-wide pumping stations and drains to accommodate high tides.

Rising seas are caused by a warming atmosphere that melts the polar ice reserve. Being unusually warm, the atmosphere has extra energy for storms and, globally, the jet streams are shifting enough to begin changing agriculture on all the continents.

The following paragraph is a report from Forbes magazine:

“By 2050, sea-level rise will push average annual coastal floods higher than land now home to 300 million people, according to a study published in Nature Communications. High tides could permanently rise above land occupied by over 150 million people, including 30 million in China. Without advanced coastal defense and planning, populations in these areas may face permanent flooding within 30 years.”

The entire report is worth reading and has maps of where US cities will be flooded. See:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimdobson/2019/10/30/shocking-new-maps-show-how-sea-level-rise-will-destroy-coastal-cities-by-2050/

 

Storms get stronger
Data: NOAA. Graphic: Reuters

With climate change, hurricanes overall are moving more slowly, meaning they can linger for longer over land, causing more damage. —Reuters

The temperature, as a daily personal experience, will be much warmer. In the United States the entire sweep of Gulf States will become very hot with frequent temperatures over 100°. Not only will agriculture be forced to relocate, so will the people. This means that hinterland cities will receive large migrations of people and jobs moving north. Retiring to the southern shores will no longer be a pleasant fantasy.

So Climate Change is a serious, immediate issue that will notably change weather, geography, agriculture, population centers and a reordering of governmental functions and responsibilities – and each citizen because the changes will be quite personal.

Mariner agrees that the confrontation is serious, perhaps greater than all the wars in US history. But. It is a new time to unify and tackle a big problem together. The world must succeed. Mariner is reminded of Rosie the riveter. Let’s wind up our sleeves, get beyond petty politics and personal agendas and get on with it.

Ancient Mariner

We are slow Learners

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Most everyone (including mariner) points at the pandemic as an expediter, an accelerator of cultural change. Mariner checked out other cultural shifts that have occurred in history; it turns out big-time change takes a while. It obviously is true that the pandemic has shut down twentieth century values by forcing adaptation to emerging artificial intelligence, exploding corporatism and by causing an economic blip because of the shutdown of so many supply chains and services – an economic blip that forced the nation to look anew at racism and the growing population of indigent citizens.

So stepping on the brakes, quite firmly, has brought about discordant oddities like a President who is incompetent and a wannabe dictator, a totally collapsed morality in the GOP political party, trillions of dollars made by corporations who monetize what should be uncompromised social behavior and just to add an unusual spin, a planet that is not pleased with human behavior.

Now the question is how long it will take to establish a new era with new economics, new social behavior, new lifestyles, new international collaboration and a new sense of normalcy and confidence across the world.

THE PROTESTANT REFORMATION

It took 131 years (1517-1648) before the open conflict between Roman Catholicism and the protestant rebellion came to awkward but agreeable terms. The role of today’s pandemic was played by Henry VIII, Martin Luther and John Calvin. In short order Henry said nations are not bound by Roman Catholic judgments; Martin Luther said the Holy Bible was the only source of Divine authority and proclaimed that every Christian is a priest in their own right; John Calvin stressed God’s power and humanity’s predestined fate.

Reminiscent of today’s republican-democrat standoff, treaties were hard fought, physical agreements that took decades to settle. It wasn’t until 1530 that the Lutheran Denomination was able to document its approach to Christianity by publishing the Augsburg Confession, a document that settled differences between Protestant sects and was presented to Holy Roman Emperor Charles V.

A thirty-year war raged until 1648 when the Treaty of Westphalia was signed. Another comparison between then and now is the opportunity to use new technology. The new technology during the Reformation was the printing press, giving dissenting views a new, quickly distributed tool with which to fight entrenched authority. Today, in 2020, the new technology is social media – having the same disruptive effect.

As Christmas grows near this year, a genuine gift is the vaccine – developed in such a short time it seems miraculous. This leaves 2021 as the year to start rebuilding the American Dream, redesigning new economics for the world and to see what we can do about Planet Earth’s complaints not only regarding fossil fuel but the heavy price on the biosphere caused by human indifference.

Only 130 years left . . .

Ancient Mariner

A Tall, Tall Order for Joe

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Politico was nice enough to put some effort into analyzing the major issues that will confront Joe Biden whether he wants to deal with them or not. Mariner copied them into this post to give readers a quick insight into what will be occupying the interactions between the President, both houses of Congress, the various cabinets, virtually every State, and hesitating to mention a deeply divided electorate with very little interest in healing through moderation.

Lightly mentioned in the list, other than repairing Donald’s removal of fossil fuel regulations, is the global warming issue. If scientists’ predictions hold – and they have so far – preparing for new housing regulations, new pressures on agriculture, improved FEMA coverage and a seriously increased ‘inside the US’ migration issue should be added during Joe’s term.

Oddly not mentioned are job growth issues. Politically touted by the progressives through the Green New Deal, still, infrastructure has been ignored for twenty-five years and will be a huge boost to job growth.

Another significant issue is restructuring the economy to focus on international trade agreements a la the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). These international deals can’t wait as suggested in the Trade and Manufacturing item. China already has moved in this direction and has begun to tie together international hegemonies.[1]

So the reader can appreciate a quick, clear and analyzed prediction of Joe’s future:

Health Care

Joe Biden’s health care agenda has a Goldilocks strategy: Trying to get it just right to pass Congress. But It doesn’t go far enough for progressives who want Medicare for All, while it goes way too far for Republicans, who still want to kill the bill. -Susannah Luthi

Immigration and the border wall

Immigration policy would be the most dramatic and immediate reversal of Trump policies when Biden takes office. Border wall construction would end virtually overnight in a Biden administration, and he’s pushing a comprehensive immigration overhaul with a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. -Rebecca Rainey and Bryan Bender

Tax

Joe Biden has been quite consistent on his taxation agenda: Nobody who makes less than $400,000 a year would see a tax increase. But dig a little deeper, and the plans around capital games and state and local tax deductions get a lot more complicated in Congress. -Brian Faler

Energy and climate change

Rolling back Donald Trump’s oil industry-friendly regulations could take years for the incoming Biden administration, and the courts that hear challenges to these rollbacks have been stacked with conservatives. That means climate change activists could be seriously disappointed if they’re looking for quick victories in the new administration. -Anthony Adragna and Bryan Bender

Trade and manufacturing

President-elect Biden could roll back tariffs on day one if he wants to — and many American industry leaders would love him to do just that. But Biden is more likely to take a more negotiated approach with China and other trading partners, meaning the free-wheeling global trade system won’t come roaring back quickly. -Gavin Bade and Eleanor Mueller

Technology

The legal protections that major technology platforms like Google, Twitter and Facebook have enjoyed for years will still be threatened under a Biden presidency, but Biden is more likely to work with Congress to rewrite the rules for social media liability protections. -Cristiano Lima

Education

Democrats are dreaming big about free college and increasing spending on low-income schools, but getting a polarized Congress to go along with funding these priorities won’t be easy. The good news for Democrats is Biden can undo some of Donald Trump’s executive orders, including new protections for transgender students. -Michael Stratford

Defense

Everything from the nuclear arsenal to transgender protections for the military will be under review in the Biden administration, with promises to roll back several of Donald Trump’s policies. Biden also wants to negotiate a new version of the War Powers Act to rewrite the post-9/11 authorization for use of force in Afghanistan and Iraq. -Bryan Bender

Housing and redlining

Donald Trump rolled back protections against discrimination in housing, which was part of his efforts to win over white suburban voters. The Biden administration is almost certain to reverse Trump’s orders and push fair housing rules again. -Victoria Guida and Katy O’Donnell

 

[1] Hegemony: Preponderant influence or authority over others. In context, this means several nations will agree to specific roles in an international agreement as opposed to colonialism, EU monetary models, or tariff-driven arrangements. Only three nations are large enough to anchor hegemonic agreements: China, United States and India.

It’s Time

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Regular readers are aware of mariner’s belief that, generally, changes in society reach a moment of significant pressure to change every sixty years. The basic pattern that encourages the sixty year cycle is the generational influence in the social framework. For example, each generation grows up learning different values than their parents; the parents in turn learned different values than their parents.

Because of the natural, familial authority structure, grandparents hang on to the world they grew up in, parents manage the humanist influences of day-to-day life and the youngest generation is absorbing a world relatively unknown to the grandparents.

Significant world events can disrupt and force a restart of the sixty year cycle. For example, two world wars, a massive economic depression and, more subtly, the Cold War, prevented normal cycles of change to occur – although in rural America, the sixty year cycle continued primarily because of advances in farm machinery and real estate cycles.

– – – –

Mariner was ruminating about society with Guru the other day. It was sixty years ago that the 1960’s occurred. Those alive at the time may remember the following events from that era:

John Kennedy assassinated.

Bobby Kennedy assassinated.

Martin Luther King assassinated.

Four white college students murdered on campus by National Guard.

Racial uprising caused major fires in many larger cities, requiring in Baltimore a permanently posted, armed National Guard soldier at every intersection.

Disruptive rioting at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

Rebellion against Vietnam War with protesters burning draft cards and bras and causing a small migration of young people into Canada.

Lyndon Johnson was forced not to run for a second term.

Oh, the memories . . .

The overriding effect of this pressure to change began with new liberal ideas about government and individual rights that began with FDR solutions to the Great Depression. But in the seventies, to regain control of an unruly society, resistance by the oldest generation led to a series of conservative election cycles that shut down liberal change until the emergence of the Millennials at the beginning of this century.

Today, the same generational influences are at play – except this time around there is a fourth, even older generation clinging to authority (Baby Boomers). Despite the overwhelming changes brought about by the Internet, shifting international economies, climate changes and population shifts, governmental authorities are plagued by this extra burden of really old officials remaining in power who are unaware of the new world their grandchildren and great grandchildren are experiencing.

Then along comes the pandemic. The sixty-year model is stopped dead in its tracks. Whatever changes were slowly to be introduced as the oldest generation passed away, suddenly were demanded immediately. A short example: work from home. Another: the political power of social media. Another: Within twenty years, six of the largest cities on America’s coasts will be forced to relocate or constrict real estate economies because of rising seas. But last-cycle politics from the very conservative clog the effort of government to keep up with new demands from society.

It is time for term limits based on age. Bring back the normal Homo sapiens life cycle of three generations of power – sixty years, more or less.

Perhaps it is good that the common citizen must shelter-in while the sixty-year cycle goes to war.

Ancient Mariner.

The Senate

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Vox News (reputable) published the results of a study that shows 18 US Senators represent 52 percent of the population. Is it any wonder that as Kentucky goes, so goes the nation? Is it any wonder that, in the midst of the worst pandemic in US history, the Asperger’s-laden Senate will not support adequate discretionary funding to help out family life, housing and health?

The Georgia vote for two US Senators, if two democrats are elected, will break the conservative logjam in the Senate – something that is necessary before Joe Biden can actually put in place some programs and policies relevant to the 21st century. Alas, mariner has trepidations that both positions will not be filled with democrats. Even with the current election spread in the Electoral College, Chicken Little trembles as the Electoral College December 14th vote approaches – an institution that also reflects a warped representation of the citizenry.

John Dingle, who served in the House of Representatives for 80 years as a democrat from Michigan, often lamented the misrepresentation of the Senate and often proposed changing the Constitution. In the Atlantic Magazine issue of January 2019, Eric Orts wrote an article about the two-senators-from-each-state rule and proposed a solution that gave every state a minimum of one senator; California would receive 12 Senate seats and other states would receive allocations commensurate with their population. In that article, Orts quotes Daniel Patrick Moynihan who in 1995 said “Sometime in the next century the United States will have to address Senate representation of the population to preserve the Second Amendment right requiring ‘one person, one vote.’”

So, as most Americans celebrate the end of a surrealistic Trump administration, nonetheless recovery may be difficult with a republican Senate. Remember that Joe’s job is to heal the nation more than to take on an undefined future.

Ancient Mariner

Beyond Covid-19

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Similar to its addiction to Donald, the press has been consumed with Covid-19. Not that this is unwarranted but the world continues to live and breathe, to live day-to-day and to place each day into a continuing history of nations, nature, and the experience of individual lives.

The pandemic is a fog that prevents clear observation of human activity at every level. But reality still exists beyond the virus and certain policies and philosophies lay waiting as the fog clears.

֎ Most newsworthy has been the interest of the Congress in Big Data – not necessarily for the right reasons but still, Big Data is on the agenda for sweeping changes in antitrust, net neutrality, privacy, accountability, taxation and social responsibility. The Biden doctrine seeks to make high speed Internet available to every American – a source of new jobs.

֎ Every nation around the world is confronted with an old concept of economy that dates back to Adam Smith (1700s). The politics of world commerce is sensitive to how resources are leveraged. The fact that the stock markets of the world still seem to create earned income in the midst of worldwide economic suffering grows ever more fragile. At some point, corporate manipulation will no longer be able to support a profit that doesn’t exist at street level.

The leading thought is for nations to share the confrontation of dwindling resources by joining a common market where several nations agree to share an economic plan together. China is well on its way to creating a number of these international contracts. Economic philosophers use the term hegemonic economy.

֎ Climate change continues to be poo-pooed by the fossil fuel industry and others who would be resistant to enforced behavior by their governments. Nevertheless, like Covid, nature is not political. The sea level, the storm intensity and the rapidly shifting weather patterns forebode hardship on economies, regional disasters and personal tragedy. Forecasters have noted the years of 2030 and 2070 as times of irrevocable confrontation.

֎ Social institutions are forced to be at a crossroad as much as economy and social culture. Whether it is schools, shopping, health, labor policy, employment benefits or housing, there is inadequacy at every turn. The fact is that the very core of family behavior is at risk. How do families sustain themselves? How do families engage in normal behavior similar to education, childcare and achievable lifestyles? How do families prepare for elderly care?

Donald may be out of office but the tsunami of reality in his wake leaves a lot of work for each human being seeking to survive in these historic times of change.

Ancient Mariner

Thoughts as the Shelter-in Continues

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Mariner is fortunate that for the moment his financial status is sufficient, his curiosity in social studies has not waned and there are more physical chores than may be achievable in the gardens, home repair and shop projects. He is truly fortunate. Still, mariner like millions around the world is stifled by the lock downs, the isolation, the fear, the diminished ability to live a normal life.

Taking note of the television’s creation of slowly moving landscapes and the screensavers on the computer, mariner has declared his large living room window his own screensaver. He sits for periods of time noting that his screensaver has loops of viewing just as the landscapes do. There is the woman who walks her two little piles of dog hair in the morning and in the evening; there is a high school runner who will pass the window three times in half an hour; there are the three children who ride their bicycles to the nearby playground and back again; golf carts pass on their way to the golf course and back; UPS and FEDEX pass each day. Just like the landscapes, mariner has watched the summer turn into fall and now into winter. The meditation crowd has nothing on the mariner!

The problem is that mariner’s brain takes these screensaver moments to think about reality, economy, cultural collapse and impending issues that mariner’s readers are tired of hearing. To wit:

A book, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty (2013) by D. Acemoglu and J.A. Robinson, suggests that a nation can be too wealthy and therefore become susceptible to moral degeneration and economic weakness. Mariner is reminded of a series of tests with mice done in the 1960s. The mice had all the comforts possible: food, water, playgrounds, little nest apartments, etc. Eventually, the mice showed growing signs of disrespect, abuse, gang discrimation and even rape and murder.

The key factor for human societies was that the population has overthrown an authoritative plutocracy and spread the wealth to the population (AKA democracy). American citizens are experiencing this phenomenon. To be brief, consider Lori Loughlin spending $500 thousand and lying about her daughter’s athletic prowess to get her daughter into the appropriately prestigious university. Pondering at his screensaver, mariner wonders whether the rise in college tuition is because more people have the wherewithal to pay – making each seat in the university a scarcity versus market competition. Is this how the economy weakens? It has been proven that elite universities are attended only by the economic elite. Is this why colleges of lesser prestige are failing – the price doesn’t justify the reward?

It doesn’t take much imagination to recognize the disruptive nature of this behavior as it relates to economic class. Mariner has cited several times that the labor class has been deprived of sharing in the wealth since 1980; hence Donald’s Base. Humans are mammals, too – just like mice.

Maybe it’s better not to watch the screensaver too long.

Ancient Mariner

There is no Lee in Today’s World

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Mariner hasn’t seen Chicken Little in a while. He doesn’t come out of the henhouse. Inside, he sits trembling and wears a World War I army helmet. By his side are prayer beads, a prayer rug, a few wicks to light a candle, a ready-to-leave motor scooter and an AR-15.

Chicken Little suffers a malady that many suffer in today’s world: There is no lee. Lee is a sailing term that references the side of the boat away from the wind; it also references any place where safety may be had as a storm approaches. Today, the world offers little in the way of a lee.

There have always been storms, even really disruptive ones that change how the world and its biosphere survive. What is notable today is that everything is changing at once; there is no anchor to hold onto. Religion is adrift; nuclear war lurks in the shadows; the weather is changing; seas are rising onto the land; governments are becoming dysfunctional as global resources dwindle; a worldwide virus is killing hundreds of thousands all over the world; violence and militarism spread as if they were a virus; new technology threatens ancient behavioral norms; the Earth itself seems unsure about the future. Where is a lee? Where is a big tree that one can tie to while the storm of change threatens?

Mariner may sound like a naïve romantic when he suggests that the entire human race has nothing to cling to except itself. It may be that clinging to fellow humans may be the only lee available – such as it is. Take note that everywhere in the world that conflict and destructive behavior exists, things get a lot worse, not better. Are there any among us who would prefer to live in Syria, Belarus, Venezuela, Azerbaijan, or Ukraine? Does anyone look forward to living in Burundi, Eretria or Sudan where it is as likely to die from starvation as it is to live into adulthood?

If the United States is not careful, it will cast aside its humanity, its economy and even its sovereignty as it willingly moves toward social conflict and separatism. Everyone is stressed by the rapid transition from the relative comfort of the 1900s to the undefined, unsympathetic future of the 2000s. An accelerant in the nation’s move toward mistrust and violence is its President, Donald Trump. Donald is a Romanesque throwback to the times when abusive narcissists rose to power through division and unscrupulous behavior.

It is a common word in the news today and often a call to arms in its own right: The word is ‘unity’. The lee, that tree to tie one’s self to is one another. It is quite easy to say, “I’ve got your back if you need me (even though your politics are different). At the moment, given that diversity doesn’t continue to grow, words of conflict are simply words. Set them aside. What is left is sharing; pass it forward; compassion – and survival.

Ancient Mariner