Category Archives: Politics

Little Big Things

Posted on by
Reply

There was a bit of kickback on the Aljazeera article that was harsh in its opinion of Hillary. The mariner is not espousing any candidate over another; none induce the mariner’s advocacy. He may reference something that, although unpopular, is intellectually unique in some way. The joining of Hillary to Donald was unusual and written by an Iranian-American professor at Columbia University. It seems more logical to compare Donald to Bernie. Certainly another perspective for the liberal arts mind. Readers must admit that the media offers little intellectual fodder.

  • – – –

A new analysis published in Nature – Climate Change magazine warns that 4 million people may be displaced in the US by rising seas during the next 100 years – half of them in Florida. The increase will be between 3 feet and 6 feet. The study says that sea levels are rising at the fastest rate in the last 28 centuries. Data already shows increasing sea levels have caused greater damage each year by flooding and heavy storms. It was estimated that a 6 foot increase would cost $14 trillion in relocation costs. See:

http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2961.epdf?referrer_access_token=GP821Wogcu_Rmb5dVHcQvNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NW5dzPCV1LQTM2JMQvXgeV5kcoIiVItcAo6QabUR9-178DTC5AmyL7sqoUXtYx2FydBJB3NZXi69rwMlAJSFnb4PbI1CrMlUnNDDLj1lRtE1FdsgdlaP7hfzAT8rce5yP_2UibeTtvtA4ujTyZbUPB_FVbsjW3DucGr5UgNyZCSSS7w1mBahLCuyC4ACswWAXMxUMoh0aWWSuLDAeQY8JD&tracking_referrer=www.nytimes.com

  • – – –

GPS, the television show hosted by Fareed Zacharia, had Larry Summers as a guest. Larry was Bill Clinton’s Secretary of the Treasury. Mariner was confused more than informed. Fareed’s opening remarks touted the success of the US economy compared to all other countries with major economic profiles. His positive tone seemed to ignore the dissatisfaction of the followers of Donald and Bernie.

Donald espouses, more or less, a nationalist dissatisfaction and Bernie espouses dissatisfaction with an oligarchic economy. Needless to say, there are millions of followers between the two who feel put upon by government and do not feel that progress has been made in the economy. Fareed defended NAFTA, saying it had created a stable neighbor in Mexico whose government is rapidly becoming more democratic. Meanwhile, millions contend the US government is becoming less democratic.

While Mexico’s politics may be true in principle, the image of large corporations still moving out of the US on a regular basis is not one the working class appreciates. Mariner sees a disconnection between economic perspective and voter perspective. Further, to confuse the mariner more, Larry comes on and says US citizens have to spend more – even go into debt now at really inexpensive interest rates and not save so much. This is hard advice to millions of voters who are still hurting from the 2008 recession, student debt, and decreasing income as manufacturing continues to shrink in terms of good paying jobs.

  • . . . .

Don’t tell Donald (or his followers) about the following story from Chicago reported in the American Journal of Transportation:

“Chicago’s transport authorities handed a $1.3 billion rail cars contract for the city’s “L” urban rail system to a unit of China’s CRRC Corp., the company’s second deal in the U.S. in 18 months.

The order is for 846 7000-series rail cars from CSR Sifang America JV, which submitted the lowest bid, Chicago Transport Authority said in a statement on its website Thursday. Prototypes for an initial order for 400 train cars are due in 2019 and expected to go into a service a year later after tests. As part of its winning bid, CSR Sifang will also invest $40 million to build a rail assembly facility in Chicago.

The deal is China’s second in the U.S., following the one China CNR Corp. won in October 2014 worth $567 million to supply trains for Boston’s subway system.

CNR and CSR Corp. subsequently merged last year to form CRRC Corp. in a bid to achieve greater economies of scale and compete more effectively in the global market. China Premier Li Keqiang is leading an overseas push by Chinese train equipment makers as part of a broader strategy to turn China into an advanced industrialized nation.”

It is certainly true that chaos reigns when there is a major culture shift in progress.

Ancient Mariner

Coal

Posted on by
Reply

From US Energy Information Administration:

“In 2012, 91 percent of coal consumed in the U.S. was used for 37 percent of total U.S. electric power generation. The remaining 8 percent was consumed for industrial purposes, including steel and cement manufacturing. Worldwide, electric power generation was also the largest consumer of coal. In 2011, the electricity sector consumed 62 percent, while global industrial coal consumption was approximately 33 percent. The remaining 5 percent was used in the commercial and residential sectors.”

Scientists have been putting the numbers together regarding industries that burn coal, especially electric power plants. The coal industry has promoted carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) solutions to reduce the release of Carbon into the atmosphere. This method uses Carbon extractors in the chimneys, compresses the Carbon and stores it deep underground. The coal industry has performed studies that suggest CCS can meet the 80% reduction by 2050 agreed to at the International Conference on Climate Change in 2015. However, recent independent research projects suggest the cost of CCS will be prohibitive – especially compared to the cost of replacing coal with renewable energy solutions.

Steve Skerlos, University of Michigan professor of mechanical, civil and environmental engineering, said “Policymakers need to stop wasting time hoping for technological silver bullets to sustain the status quo in the electric sector and quickly accelerate the transition from coal to renewables, or possibly, natural gas power plants with CCS.” Recent cost analysis indicated that current, flawed projections peg the fuel costs of a CCS-equipped coal plant at $29 million per year more than a conventional plant. The new University of Michigan research calculates the additional fuel cost at closer to $126 million per year.

Shifting gears from cost analysis to Federal policy makers, mariner suspects that replacing coal altogether will languish in Congressional committees until 2050. The new cost analysis not only makes cap and trade moot, it makes coal moot as well. The current Congress, bought and paid for by the coal industry and every other fossil fuel corporation, will never touch converting coal power plants to renewable energy solutions. The reader must put this issue on the stack of reasons why the nation needs a new, contemporary Congress.

From USA TODAY:

“Alison Lundergan Grimes and Natalie Tennant, two Democrats from coal-producing states running for the U.S. Senate, vow they’ll fight the Obama administration’s proposal to cut carbon dioxide emissions.

Grimes, the Kentucky secretary of State, issued a statement saying the new Environmental Protection Agency rule to cut emissions from existing power plants by 30% by 2030 “is more proof that Washington isn’t working for Kentucky.”

“Coal keeps the lights on in the Commonwealth, providing a way for thousands of Kentuckians to put food on their tables,” Grimes said. “When I’m in the U.S. Senate, I will fiercely oppose the president’s attack on Kentucky’s coal industry because protecting our jobs will be my No. 1 priority.”

It seems that rebalancing the power structure of the US in order to put global issues ahead of parochial issues will be a long, bitter and expensive battle. It is true that coal is a major cog in America’s economy. Many jobs will be affected. The national infrastructure will undergo massive reorganization reverberating across power grids, transportation, manufacturing, and renewable energy. Significant change will reach into homes as the coal power grid shrinks and renewable energy emerges.

The US economy and the workers can’t afford to lose coal jobs for any length of time. How will the workers of an entire industry be reallocated in the nation’s workforce? Logistically, how will immense sums of money be available?

Taking care of Mother Earth turns out to be more expensive and troublesome than expected. A new natural gas power plant with CCS just opened near Houston. We will know soon how cleanly and how expensively this power plant provides electricity.

  • – – –

Turning to the campaign for President, an odd article about Trump versus Clinton is in the Aljazeera newsletter. The article is worth a read for perspective. See:

http://www.aljazeera.com//indepth/opinion/2016/03/salesman-politicians-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-160306120204257.html?utm_source=Al+Jazeera+English+Newsletter+%7C+Weekly&utm_campaign=fdab870200-weekly_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e427298a68-fdab870200-224505437

Another perspective is from Bill Moyers’ website. See:

http://billmoyers.com/story/blowing-the-biggest-political-story-of-the-last-fifty-years/

Ancient Mariner

Candidate Probabilities: Polls versus Bettors

Posted on by
Reply

Here are the poll comparisons between the candidates for President. These values are from Nate Silver’s website, 538.com.

Hillary versus Donald   (NBC)        51% – 38%         Hillary +13

Hillary versus Donald   (ABC)        50% – 41%         Hillary +9

Hillary versus Ted        (NBC)        47% – 45%         Hillary +2

Hillary versus Marco    (NBC)        46% – 46%         TIE

Bernie versus Donald   (NBC)       55% – 37%         Bernie +18

Bettors, who back their prediction with cash, have more confidence in Hillary – betting she will win versus anyone 65% of the time. The full morning line is below.

The Morning Line March 10 2016

Here’s the morning line out of Vegas:

Hillary Clinton 8/15 65%
Donald Trump 10/3 23%
Bernie Sanders 8/1 11%
Ted Cruz 20/1 5%
John Kasich 33/1 3%
Marco Rubio 50/1 2%
Joe Biden 100/1 1%
Mitt Romney 200/1 .05%
Paul Ryan 500/1 .02%
Chris Christie N/A Suspended campaign
Martin O’Malley N/A Suspended campaign
Ben Carson N/A Suspended campaign
Carly Fiorina N/A Suspended campaign
Rand Paul N/A Suspended campaign
Rick Santorum N/A Suspended campaign
Jeb Bush N/A Suspended campaign
Michael Bloomberg N/A Suspended campaign
Mike Huckabee N/A Suspended campaign

Hillary is still the favorite but her odds have dropped significantly. [However, if you bet today, your profit would be $53.33 instead of just $1 if you had bet last week] The odds on Marco are noticeably different than the polls suggest; he dropped to 6th place and is a long shot. It looks like it will be Donald versus Hillary if delegate votes stay predictable. Ted is still unpopular with the betting crowd but moves up one slot to 4th place. Kasich is not a serious contender among the bettors. Bernie stays in the mix but the super delegate count is against him.

Ancient Mariner

Sailing One’s Own Ship in a Tumultuous World

Posted on by
Reply

Mariner has spent the last few days outside preparing for spring. It has been a nice respite from the Presidential campaign. Given all the attention to the presidential campaign, one must search a few channels and websites to find world news. The world isn’t doing too well. Economically, international trade is dropping significantly; the European Union is out of cash; Great Britain has citizen pressure to leave the European Union; the BRIC nations,[1] supposedly the new hot economies, all are on the verge of recession; emigration from the Middle East and northern Africa continues – reflecting continued war, tyranny and human violence on one sixth of the Earth’s land mass; the USA hangs precariously on the edge of a potential recession. Not to mention global warming and the decimation of hundreds of species due to habitat destruction.

Chicken Little grows more restless as US bombers are flown to the South China Sea and Kim Jong-Un launches more rockets. China’s GDP has dropped from 14.2% in 2007 to 6.5% today; China is not in the mood to be pushed around.

One is confronted enough to retreat back to the garden…

What shall we do about this global mess? It must be dealt with in pieces. The reader must take one thing at a time – based on personal concern and the willingness to deal with the pieces one feels are important. Despite all the news about campaigns, faltering economies, idiotic wars and terrorism, starving human beings, racial prejudice, class economy, and dysfunctional governments, where the rubber meets the road today is at the individual level. Look in a mirror to identify today’s champion. The important thing is to feel that you are actually helping bring order and ethos to a troubled planet.

Some suggestions – more likely the reader has others that may be better:

Be Civil – The phrase “pass it forward” is quite effective. Each day, be alert to the opportunity to make things easier for another person. Don’t be grandiose about it – just a small effort that is barely noticed. A friend of mariner’s walks every day for exercise but while doing so picks up trash and speaks briefly to everyone he meets.

Share – This may take practice to perform in an unimposing way. Everyone knows a number of people who are disadvantaged in some way; perhaps they are so poor as to be concerned about food or medicine or finding a way to get to the bank and grocery store. Perhaps they are old or disabled and limited in their ability to carry out normal tasks. Quietly adopt them; find ways to assist them that are friendly and unobtrusive. The mariner knows a family that grows a large vegetable garden and gives all the harvest to charity. Another individual offers to babysit while the mother buys groceries. It is amazing how nothing more than being a friend can change a person’s life. Civility and sharing are the foundation of community bonding; ethos cannot emerge without them.

Participate – Your community is dynamic. When developers first built huge bedroom communities with hundreds of homes, “communities” did not automatically exist. Instead, there were sterile collections of bedrooms that had no connectivity and no neighborhood identity that provided a feeling of belonging. Eventually, residents began visiting one another; some had interest in group activities and local schools; organizations emerged involving everything from religion to sports to social clubs and investment clubs – to name a few of many activities that make a community a dynamic environment. Participating in community activities is necessary; social and political unity cannot emerge without individuals participating in community activities.

Be responsible – A special type of participation is to contribute to the well being of community institutions. Be active in political organizations; volunteer at libraries, hospitals, religious institutions, government programs similar to adopting a highway or educational programs similar to pre-school and after-school social programs. It goes without saying: take your right to vote seriously; when the opportunity arises, meet all your elected officials; when exercising your right to vote, be inclusive of the community gestalt – don’t be vain or close-minded about your ideology. You may also run for an elected office.

Be cosmopolitan – An endless world community exists outside your local community. It is similar to your own community but the issues are more numerous, extremely complicated, and often seriously critical. You automatically own a share of the global community just as you own a share of your local community. Some worldly topics may already be important to you. Potable water, an everyday thing we never think about, on the world stage is a critical issue. Flint Michigan is in the news now. But fresh water is rapidly disappearing. Another issue is poverty; it is growing in the US – the wealthiest nation in the world. Another issue is race; another is economic fairness – not only between the one percent and the middle class but between white laborers and nonwhite laborers, between men and women, between business and labor. Another issue is the planet itself. Earth is in dire need of friends; human life as we know it is at stake within a lifetime.

The reader’s involvement in the wellbeing of neighbors, community, and worldly issues – doing something responsible on your own – may ease the insecurity imposed on you by the campaign for President. Personal commitment will erase feelings of helplessness as the world seems to collapse around you. Don’t be limited by this post’s suggestions – use your imagination to engage meaningfully.

Ancient Mariner

[1] Brazil, Russia, India, China.

Innate Understanding of the Job

Posted on by
2

When the mariner was entering the working world for the first time, he visited the state employment office. He was given an aptitude test and a dexterity test. It was only then that the counselor talked with him about jobs he may like and probably be successful at performing.

Years later, when he was applying for a computer programming job, again he was given an aptitude test to judge whether he had the wherewithal to perform in the strange world of programming.

Aptitude tests seem to have gone out of favor. Consider state Governors. Had Rick Snyder (R-Michigan) been required to take a public service aptitude test before he could be a politician, he would not have passed, could not have run for office, and would not have failed at a job for which he had no aptitude. Snyder’s ineptitude has cost his citizens beyond imagination. Poisoning an entire city to save a few million dollars is not the decision a Governor would have made had he had an innate understanding of the responsibilities of an elected politician.

Nor would he have dismissed a stellar staff at a retired veterans home and replaced them with the cheapest price contract he could find. An inspector who visited the home found unbelievable conditions ranging from broken backs to starvation. An ‘ept’ Governor would be happy that things were going well and left the situation alone. But Rick wanted to save a few dollars. By the way, the inspector was fired.

There are several more atrocities that his citizens suffered including a state school system that Snyder took personal charge of so the budget could be slashed. Some school buildings were finally condemned and the teacher payroll runs out of money in April; schools will close in Michigan in April – a bit early. Applied to all elected politicians, one wonders how government would operate if they had to demonstrate an innate understanding of the job with an aptitude test. Throw in the Supreme Court, too – aptitude tests would have to be given before one could apply for law school. By the time Justices are appointed, it’s too late.

The mariner knew a pastor who was bounced around districts of his diocese. Mariner was confident that the pastor had aspergers. Individuals with aspergers have no empathy. It didn’t take long for parishioners to suspect there was something wrong with their shepherd. The mariner has experienced inept pastors on several occasions. Clearly, the Diocese needs a further screening process to filter those who should not be pastors. It is a job requiring several nuanced skills and judgment besides being able to shake a Bible at a church service.

Every reader can offer an example or two or three of an inept manager. The answer is an aptitude test to screen for leadership skills and an innate understanding of what it is a manager is really supposed to do.

Further, school boards attack the ‘quality teacher’ issue by imposing more and more constraints on teacher behavior, lesson content, and whether they have earned sufficient IEUs – an educationist’s approach to competence. The issue can be resolved quickly by requiring an aptitude test during the college curriculum. And, having added a stiff requirement that weeds out inept teachers, a fifty percent raise may also be required to attract ‘ept’ teachers to pursue the teaching profession.

Mariner could go on: How about aptitude tests for would be parents? Policemen? Might we install a breed of policeman that likes people for a change? What aptitude test does the reader wish they had taken before they ended up being dissatisfied and inept?

REFERENCE SECTION

Amos is always complaining about the laxity with which Americans enunciate or obliterate their language. Amos warns that already, American English is worse than French when it comes to disparity between spelling and enunciation. He picked this off the Internet: There is nothing hard about saying the French word for “son,” which is pronounced “feess”—until you see it written down: fils. Try these: bidness, cannidate, close (clothes), decrepid, drownd, Febuary, and so on. See: http://www.alphadictionary.com/articles/mispronounced_words.html

Want to know the down and dirty about Donald’s hand size vis-à-vis his manhood? Check out

http://www.livescience.com/53946-hand-size-penis-size.html

Want the full story on the effects of the Zika virus on pregnant women? Check out

http://www.livescience.com/53949-zika-virus-fetal-abnormalities.html

Also see:

http://www.livescience.com/53950-zika-virus-may-infect-kill-neural-stem-cells.html

Do you eat too much at your meals? There may be a chemical switch that shuts down your desire to eat too much. See:

http://www.livescience.com/53900-leptin-enzyme-switch.html

Note that the above stories all are from http://www.livescience.com/ . It is the best and most entertaining website to keep up on science news that we can relate to and learn a lot about the world around us. Check it out once a week. Even better, subscribe to the newsletter.

Ancient Mariner

Stirrings in the South China Sea

Posted on by
1

Okay. This headline has Chicken Little running around the backyard:

The U.S. Navy has dispatched a small armada to the South China Sea.

The carrier John C. Stennis, two destroyers, two cruisers and the 7th Fleet flagship have sailed into the disputed waters in the last 24 hours, according to military officials.

The mariner spent some time in Taiwan in the early nineties. The entire South China Sea was an officially declared war zone even then. The western beaches of Taiwan were (and still are) cluttered with anti-tank and anti-landing craft concrete cones. The new jet fighters built in the nineties are kept inside mountains. Taiwan’s only defense if China invades the island is to counterstrike, making it painful for China to consider an invasion; Taiwan will be obliterated in such an invasion.

In the last few years, China has assumed ownership of the South China Sea all the way down to Brunei not far from Singapore. The South China Sea wraps around the coastline of Vietnam on the west and the Philippines on the east. Not only does China desperately need the fishing rights, it has decided to turn the Spratley Islands into a military zone to protect its southern coast. As recent news headlines have reported, China is creating new man-made islands with air and naval bases. Further, China has its eyes on the rich oil region off the coast of Thailand.

China has numerous ways to escalate the confrontation. Once protected by the vast Pacific Ocean, the US has small islands and atolls, many uninhabited, spread around the western Pacific. China easily can harass these islands. Obviously, China will continue its militarization of the region.

Mariner suspects that any escalation will be between surrogate nations and territories. The US forces will be playing in China’s backyard far across the Pacific. Calling on allies like South Korea and Japan has its own set of anxieties. Imagine China turning loose North Korea on South Korea, Japan (700 miles away) or nations bordering the South China Sea (1,700 miles away). Kim Jong Un would leap at the chance.

The US has little choice but to show some kind of presence. Aside from China’s mainland, the South China Sea is bordered by US allies and trading partners. Certainly, these nations are anxious about the Chinese extension into the primary ocean resource for several nations.

The mariner put Chicken Little in the hen house for now. But his squawking can still be heard.

  • – – –

On a more pleasant note, the mariner reports to his family that all the cacti and succulents brought back from the Sonora Desert are thriving under the grow lights. Woodland plants retrieved from the backwoods of Arkansas have survived and show new growth. A Nandina shrub retrieved from Maryland has healthy bark and looks ready to burst forth.

The mariner is in the midst of planting seed trays for the vegetable garden and flower beds. Rabbit fence will surround the backyard perimeter in another few days. Rabbits are the mariner’s nemesis and all his neighbors save one think they are cute, semi-wild pets; his sister-in-law actually tames them and feeds them by hand.

Each warren produces three batches of six rabbits – eighteen all together from spring to fall – from one nest. The last thing the mariner wanted to do was ruin the landscape with fence but even with military reinforcement including rifles, pistols, compound bows and chemicals, the mariner is losing to his neighbors’ willingness to let rabbits breed as, well, as rabbits will do. It’s a fact that in a year one doe’s offspring can produce 800 pounds of rabbit meat. The only predator in town is the king of predators: Homo sapiens. Where are they when you need them?

REFERENCE SECTION

Reader Becky has forwarded a website that has information about the fight to save the monarch butterfly. See: http://www.xerces.org/blog/butterflies-and-volunteers-the-western-monarch-thanksgiving-count/

Some good news on the environmental front: For the first time this year, more California Condors were born in the wild than have died. In 1987, the remaining Condors were rescued by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Releasing young ones into the wild began in1992. In 2015, more young were born in the wild than older ones that died, suggesting that the Condor population was capable of sustaining its numbers. For more detail, see:

http://www.fws.gov/cno/es/CalCondor/CondorCount.cfm

Ancient Mariner

Donald: A new National Philosophy

Posted on by
1

The mariner has spent too many hours watching news outlets, campaign speeches, debates, and press articles. After a while, he felt he had lost his way in the pursuit of what Donald actually represents and how, in a general way, he will change the political philosophy of the United States. Donald pumps out so much egotistical junk and has a homiletic style that appeals to unsophisticated audiences; trying to glean small pieces of genuine intent and interpreting nuances requires time and a lot of useless rhetoric.

Nevertheless, mariner believes he has parsed a difference between the established power block that controls national policy and the proposed national policy presented, albeit obfuscated, by Donald. A few assumptions must be accepted:

  1. The current economic policy promoted by the oligarchy (primarily republicans) is investment. The personal profit model is to go where the fastest and largest return on investment can be found. This has led to mass emigration of large corporations and large investments from banks to other countries where taxes, labor and environmental practices are less expensive. NAFTA is an obvious illustration of how the Federal Government supported the investment model.
  2. There is a disconnect between what the Federal Government says about unemployment percentages and wage increases. Millions of Americans have and still continue to suffer from an unequal distribution of profits – the largest percentage by far going to the “top one percent.” Further, computerization is wiping out thousands of careers that used to be part of the employment picture. Last, the majority of 2008 recession victims have not recovered.

Donald, sans rhetoric, has proposed the following:

  1. He will impose tariffs to offset the advantage of businesses relocating to Mexico and other countries under the NAFTA agreement or otherwise relocating outside the US (several Big Pharma companies moving to Ireland for the tax break).
  2. He will neutralize trade imbalances with several Pacific nations, including China. This may be an extreme adjustment leading to isolation of the US market but it reflects a key preference in Donald’s approach: Business is more important than investment. Part of his “Make America Great” approach is to reconstitute the business model that “made America great” in the postwar, late century era before the banks and investment firms were able to merge (overturn of Glass/Steagall by Clinton and Greenspan 1994) and insert trillions of dollars into the investment economy.
  3. He will, in some budget model unperceived at this moment, make Medicare the health care system that replaces Obamacare but will allow each state to apply regulations individually. In line with this, he will erase state-by-state health insurance competition. He contends this will allow competition to reduce premiums; the majority of those in the industry suggest this approach will greatly reduce the quality of health policies.
  4. He will, in a yet to be clarified manner, do something about incarceration. He has not been clear about how this will happen but it is a frequent plank in his speeches.
  5. Finally, his outrageous claims regarding racial issues are more for his republican followers than may be possible in fact. His rhetoric on race works well because the Republican Party also is prejudiced. In the long run, he cannot afford to abandon non-whites if he wants to supplant the establishment philosophy.

Given the time invested, this is not much. However, to the mariner, these bits and pieces put together imply an economic model based on business rather than investment. Donald may even require banks to invest in US business and, via tax changes, make it less profitable for banks or anyone to invest outside the US.

Donald is not a conservative. He is an opportunist. Whether liberal or conservative, he will leverage populist popularity to assure his own power in the political environment. There is a danger to his simplistic solutions to overturn the establishment model. First, he may inadvertently put the US in an isolationist position vis-a-vis other nations. Second, his bombastic style will cause many inflammatory relationships with important countries and likely will not diminish military conflict.

Vote for Donald at your own risk.

REFERENCE SECTION

°Nate Silver’s website, 538.com, has a projection tool called The Swingomatic the reader can manipulate to see what it would take to change blue states to red or vice versa. The variables are five sections of the population: college educated white, non college educated white, black, Hispanic/Latino, and Asian/other. The reader can adjust the number of votes and party to see what it would take to change the party inclination for the Electoral vote. While there, scroll down to the descriptions of the sections. Rather astute.

°On matters of managing the Ancient Mariner website, the email relationship has been troublesome. In an effort to remove large numbers of spammers, many subscribers also were eliminated. To resubscribe, assume you are a new subscriber; your old ID and password no longer exist.

Another path is to use RSS – an option in the right column near the bottom.

Ancient Mariner

 

Is Donald Joan of Arc? Robin Hood?

Posted on by
Reply

Intrinsic change is scary. Scary for everyone – not just the few. The Republican Party is most frightened of all. The word is, after Donald won Super Tuesday so handily, that the big money in the Republican Party is scheming to stop him – regardless of the popular vote of American citizens who believe he speaks for them. Two thoughts occur to the mariner: Is the oligarchy so entrenched that it can ignore the rules of a Presidential election? What happened to a democracy where one person, one vote is sacrosanct?

An interesting fact: Donald has received approximately 420,000 votes so far. That’s about 100,000 more than the average republican vote after Super Tuesday. It is likely that the excess is made up of democrats and independents as well as newly registered republicans. What others who did not vote for Donald fear is that he will make it to the Bastille of St. Laurent (Joan of Arc’s siege of Orléans), that is, he will become President of the United States.

Donald is not by any measure republican, or democrat, or libertarian, or evangelical. His agenda as President will definitely change things across the spectrum of American politics. He frightens rational citizens with his claims of building Hadrian’s Wall on the Mexican border, his isolationist intentions in the area of trade and constraints on US industry, and, whether he truly believes in racist policies or just pontificates it for the entertainment of his followers, all are a destructive platform.This reflects his role as Robin Hood: a bit uncouth and unsophisticated and the hero that makes the establishment uncomfortable. The truth is we don’t know what Donald will do – a scary proposition in its own right. We have yet to see any philosophical or political pattern to his rhetoric. His Presidency no doubt will shake up the status quo.

The democrats, on the other hand, turned out a vote 20% short of Obama’s 2012 campaign. Are the differences in turnout enough to make Donald’s general election a success? Like Bernie says, the democrats win when there is a big turnout – bigger than indicated so far.

Hillary drags more than enough baggage to discourage a warm, responsive electorate. If Donald gets by the republican oligarchy and runs against Hillary, it will be a close race. What bothers the mariner is that both of them are 1 percenters.

 

Ancient Mariner

Are the Primaries Forcing Change?

Posted on by
Reply

On January 9, mariner wrote a post that suggested Donald is a ‘reagent.’ A reagent is a soap, acetone, alcohol, metals used in hydrolysis – any chemical or solution that cleans something. Soap in the laundry removes dirt from clothes. Paint remover removes paint. Acetone removes fingernail polish, etc.

The mariner’s philosophical alter ego, Guru, speculated that Donald would dismantle the Republican Party very much like paint remover removes paint. Even in these early primaries, one can see how Donald is splitting a significant number of republicans (and some democrats) away from the traditional hierarchy of the Republican Party.

If Donald remains the front runner through Super Tuesday primaries, he already will have changed the power structure by creating populist conservatives who are not satisfied with the establishment side of the Republican Party. On the democratic side, both Hillary and Bernie are advocating populist solutions as well. It may be that there will be enough change in Congress – whether new members or members who respond to the new populism – that collaboration will return to Congress via the newly formed wings of both parties. The longer Donald holds forth, the more influential the new conservative wing will be. Should he actually be nominated, the old establishment will be permanently changed – as if a reagent had washed away the old power structure.

Donald as a reagent is speculation at this point but one cannot ignore his domination of the early primaries.

The time remaining until the election in November will be entertaining: Hillary is a detail person, Bernie is a visionary, and Donald is an amoral pragmatist. If Donald holds a lead in delegates through May, the republican super delegates may well force a brokered convention. Marco and Ted will split establishment voters; neither will have enough delegates to power through the entire primary season unless a brokered convention selects one of them.

All this being said, it is early in the game and the mariner’s speculation isn’t worth a lot.

Ancient Mariner

 

Get Some Sleep

Posted on by
Reply

In the March 2016 issue of Scientific American magazine is an article titled ‘Brain Drain.’ The article overview is copied below:

“Every day the brain eliminates a quarter of an ounce of used proteins that must be replaced with new ones. The waste-disposal process traffics half a pound of detritus a month and three pounds a year, equivalent to the brain’s own weight.

Where do these wastes go if the brain lacks the elaborate network of lymph vessels that transports wastes outside the nervous system? New research has recently found detritus-carrying passages in the brain that are most active during sleep.

The glymphatic system, as these fluid vessels are known, may become a critical target for the treatment of neurological diseases such as Alzheimer’s or Parkinson’s that result from the buildup of toxic proteins that are not cleared from the brain.” © 2016

 In the mariner’s opinion, the direction of this study, that is, discovering the mechanics of waste disposal by the brain, will  expedite cures for dementia, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and a host of other neurodegenerative issues as well. Already it has been proven that dementia and Alzheimer’s are caused by toxic proteins that interfere with brain processing – the same protein clusters that normally should be channeled out of the brain into the lymphatic network.

The cleanup happens almost entirely while we sleep. Advice: commit to a daily routine that assures you get all the sleep you need – especially the deep sleep cycle. Over the years, this may be the best deterrent to dementia. Still, more needs to be explored by neurologists before we can speak with authority. Perhaps a cure for folks already affected by mental disorders may be in the offing.

For many decades, it has been known that frequently exposing the brain to new experiences, including learning, physical activity, and interpersonal activity exercises the brain, keeping the ‘little brain cells’ trim and growing – even in older years.

So there you have it: How long have we been taught to eat well, get plenty of sleep, and live an active life?

Watch the author, Maiken Nedergaard, speak about this article online at ScientificAmerican.com/mar2016/nedergaard

  • – – – –

In the battle of Apple versus the Federal government, all the giant data firms are joining Apple to prevent the FBI from gaining access to an Apple iPhone. This issue could result in a major showdown between corporate independence and national authority. Big time lawyers and lots of cash are part of the defense for data corporations. This show may be more interesting than the primaries; there is a good chance it may go to the Supreme Court and may, if decisions fall toward the FBI, cause a rift in the independence of international corporations.

REFERENCE SECTION

The Live Science website has an entertaining article about the Sea Snail, a tiny, improbable creature that flies through the water like an insect. Other side articles are entertaining as well. See: http://www.livescience.com/53759-snail-swims-like-flying-insect.html

Ancient Mariner