The Morning Line

 

Here’s the morning line out of Vegas:

Hillary Clinton 10/11 91%
Donald Trump 5/6 83%
Bernie Sanders 8/1 12%
Marco Rubio 10/1 10%
Ted Cruz 12/1 8%
Jeb Bush 35/1 3%
Chris Christie 50/1 2%
Joe Biden 70/1 1.5%
Michael Bloomberg 125/1 Less than 1%
Carly Fiorina 250/1 Even less than less than 1%
John Kasich 250/1 Even less than less than 1%
Ben Carson 275/1 Even less than less than 1%
Martin OMalley 500/1 Even less than less than 1%
Rand Paul 500/1 Even less than less than 1%
Mike Huckabee 2000/1 You’ll have an affair with your favorite movie star first
Rick Santorum 2000/1 You’ll have an affair with your favorite movie star first

 

The significant shift this week is Donald. Bettors are moving money behind him to cover bets on other candidates that are more likely to lose. More and more, bettors think Cruz has too many negatives; note that bettors think Rubio has a better chance than Cruz. Despite Chris Christie’s feisty style, beating on Hillary doesn’t seem to be paying off. Are we ready for Hillary v Donald?

The Iowa Caucuses are ten days away. It’s time to fill in your dance card!

your_vote_counts copy

Ancient Mariner

The Iowa Caucus Cometh

It is probable that Mariner has harped too often about how important the 2016 election is. However, it is true. And in a few days Iowan readers will participate in phase I of the election process – the Iowa Caucus. Soon thereafter until July, all other states and territories will participate as well.

To let the mariner rest assured he has done all he can to help voters understand the importance of their vote and the issues that the voter is actually deciding, whether directly or by inference, the mariner provides the final countdown list for casting the voter’s most influential impact in the caucus/primary and in November.

  1. Identify the key issue that you want to promote in this election. The broader it is, the better it is. For example, a narrow issue is whether to provide a path to citizenship for resident immigrants. Many voters stop here and cast an emotional opinion based on racism or on conscientious treatment. Mentally step up a level and think about cultural, historical and economic ramifications; how will the immigration issue help or hinder each of these; what subsequent issue may emerge; will that subsequent issue be on a path to improvement for our country?
  2. What legislation, government attitude, or new action must be changed to help the key issue in number 1?
  3. Quickly research each candidate on websites, news sources, and use your computer search engine to search the candidate’s history and future commitments that will affect you key issue. This task, though a quick one taking minutes to an hour, is not usually used. Instead, a voter usually listens to friends, talks with co-workers and family. In 2016, however, it is true information about the candidate, not gossip or news broadcasts that will magnify the accuracy and influence of your vote.
  4. Disregard incumbency, appearance and popular personality. Too many popular, attractive, schmaltzy incompetents are elected on these characteristics alone. Avoid evaluations like “With which candidate would you feel more comfortable having dinner?” Instead, ask a similar question: “With which candidate would you feel more confident when you hand your key issue to them?”
  5. Consider political ramifications. Any elected President will need at least one Congressional house to successfully adopt your issue; on the state level, which candidate will address gerrymandering, or infrastructure, or unions, or health care – all are local issues that will promote or defeat your key issue as the near future plays out.
  6. Finally, ask yourself whether a candidate wants to promote new, modern solutions that will move the US and your key issue forward or whether the candidate berates current conditions with a desire to stabilize or remove ‘troublesome’ programs to return to solutions that have existed in the past and denies exploratory opportunities for uses of budget, civil service, and unanimity among classes, races, education – and perhaps your key issue.

The last point is the key issue for the mariner. The broadest level is addressing all our nation’s antiquated solutions that have not helped the nation to date and likely will block progress when progress is the answer. At this moment in US history, the only important question is “Will the nation and its population experience a fresh wind in the decade following 2016?”

Ancient Mariner

REPORT TO READERS

This is a quarterly report of transactions on iowa-mariner.com for the last ninety days. A reader in each city has read the mariner’s website at least once each month; the exception is Phoenix where the mariner’s family spent several days. Many readers read several posts on each visit.

Readers were from 15 nations:

United States (240 readers)             Belgium (1 reader)                Kenya (1 reader)

Brazil (14 readers)                            Canada (1 reader)                Cambodia (1 reader)

United Kingdom (2 readers)             Algeria (1 reader)                  Philippines (1 reader)

India (2 readers)                              Ecuador (1 reader)                 Sweden (1 reader)

Italy (2 readers)                               Indonesia (1 reader)               Venezuela (1 reader)

 

Readers were from the following cities1

 

1. Grinnell  21. Sioux Falls  41. Las Pinas
2. Phoenix (n/a)  22. Casas Adobes  42. Boras
 3. Hyattsville  23. Edegem  43. Coachella
 4. Carney  24. Fortaleza  44. Irvine
 5. Fort Madison  25. Curitiba  45. San Diego
 6. Los Angeles  26. Londrina  46. Chicago
 7. Denver  27. Porto Alegre  47. Hays
 8. Donnellson  28. Cacador  48. Seneca
 9. Branson  29. Imbituba  49. Kansas City
 10. (not set)  30. Campinas  50. New York City
 11. San Antonio  31. Sao Paulo  51. Oklahoma City
 12. Crestline  32. Pickering  52. Houston
 13. Glendale  33. London  53. Salt Lake City
 14. Centerville  34. Reading  54. Madison
 15. Great Bend  35. Jakarta  55. Caracas
 16. El Paso  36. Mumbai  56. Iguatu
 17. Lawrence Township  37. Kolkata  57. Itapevi
 18. Rio de Janeiro  38. Ancona  58. Lagoa da Prata
 19. San Francisco  39. Francavilla Fontana  59. Sumare
 20. Las Vegas  40. Phnom Penh  

The highest daily access was 120 readers with an average of 87.

1 23% of readers were not included because they did not access the website three months in a row.

REFERENCE SECTION

The mariner has been searching for a reasonable voice to add to coverage of this strange 2016 campaign. There are many who qualify but the mariner has settled on Tavis Smiley. Smiley is a voice inadequately heard on mainstream news analysis (if one considers PBS not mainstream). Tavis is not a name in the book world; he has published none save a biography that was ghost-written. However, he has made short subject videos about many issues and hosts his own daily show on PBS as well as a weekend show. Periodically, Tavis Smiley may appear on CNN and MSNBC. To those who are unaware of his political/cultural contributions, his claim to fame is that he is married to Fredricka Whitfield, an anchor on CNN.

For example, as a pundit Smiley offers insights that dig into the rhetoric of Donald, he leaves the candidate looking like the empty box he may be. Tavis is African American; many of his topics reflect African American priorities but not out of context with the larger citizen issues of our time. He states as a matter of fact that Donald will carry “few if any black voters.”

Tavis Smiley is sensitive to the cultural crisis that exists in politics today and judges candidates on their intent actually to break the many roadblocks and step into the future. For sample shows and website, see:

Website: http://www.tavistalks.com/

PBS videos: http://www.pbs.org/show/tavis-smiley/

Smiley comments about campaign: http://www.bing.com/news/search?q=PBS+VIDEO+Tavis+Smiley&qpvt=pbs+video+tavis+smiley&FORM=EWRE

Ancient Mariner

In Another Port – Day 2

The Van is docked for three days near san Antonio – south of San Antonio to be precise; a different biome from the one above San Antonio that shares weather with Dallas. Drop in latitude to Corpus Christi (Latitude 27.7°N) and one approaches the influence of the equatorial zone (Latitude 23.5°N). The Equatorial zone includes the Caribbean, Jamaica, Cancun, Mexico, and Costa Rica. When warm leaves Iowa, it turns up in the Equatorial zone similar to the monarch butterfly.

The mariner and his wife are resting under blue skies, temperatures near the seventies and a wafting breeze. The first mate was able to return to her tradition of walking while talking on her cell. The grounds at this Hyatt Residency encompass a golf course and 400 acres full of trails. The first mate was nearly bonked by a golf ball. It is as winter should be.

Tomorrow we weigh anchor and head to Greater Dallas (Latitude 33°N) to visit relatives. Sadly, this is the first leg of our journey back to the frozen north.

On to another subject, mariner is disturbed that the media cannot be sued for donating its air time to Donald’s campaign. Donald has a role, of course, and likely, it is a needed role if the US is to shed the remnants of a political culture incapable of leading the country forward. Nevertheless, the mentally retarded news media will take a nickel instead of a dime every time because a nickel is larger than a dime. In other words, the candidates, both republican and democrat, are virtually unknown as to what they stand for because Nazi campaigner Donald is entertaining – if not substantive. God forbid the news media would want to share substantive news.

Even so, Donald can brag that he doesn’t have to buy ads on TV. They already are paid for. The real cost is a public that remains confused about the real issues and how each politician will deal with them. Meanwhile, we watch a Donald event cheerfully abuse and throw out a Muslim. Now that is news – or it should be. Donald’s retort, dutifully reported by news media without noting underlying, serious consequences, is “They really hate us!”

REFERENCE SECTION

Mariner has a sweatshirt that says “eschew obfuscation.” He laments the demise of clarity and specific meaning in our English language. Every day words disappear that would have helped clarify. Mariner suggests that the reader reference the dictionary more often; the mariner double checks the nuance of words several times while writing a single post. Perhaps Donald has latched on to something: It isn’t content that matters – it’s just easier not to bother.

Buy a dictionary.

Ancient Mariner

Obama-Cruz and the Donald Interpretation

Listening to Donald (with only one ear, mariner promises), it seems he is using the original Constitutional language defining “natural born citizen” and disregarding centuries of footnotes attached to this language by Congress and the Supreme Court. Providing a very general interpretation of his own, the mariner finds that the mindset of the founding fathers – freshly independent of European and especially British oversight – wanted to assure that only an American born on American soil would be eligible to be President. Section 2, Article 1 states simply and directly:

“No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.”

Strictly interpreted, Donald may have a slight chance at defending his opinions with a Supreme Court case on the subject. However, the Supreme Court (we hope) will take into account the subsequent “clarifications and exceptions” For example, from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:

“The Citizenship Clause of Section 1 in the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution, which states that “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.” This clause represented Congress‘s reversal of a portion of the Dred Scott v. Sandford decision which had declared that African Americans were not and could not become citizens of the United States or enjoy any of the privileges and immunities of citizenship.

The Civil Rights Act of 1866 had already granted U.S. citizenship to all persons born in the United States “not subject to any foreign power”. The 39th Congress proposed the principle underlying the Citizenship Clause due to concerns expressed about the constitutionality of the Civil Rights Act during floor debates in Congress. The framers of the Fourteenth Amendment sought to entrench the principle in the Constitution in order to prevent its being struck down by the Supreme Court or repealed by a future Congress.”

In the abstract, African American issues aside, the United States has been a magnet for waves of immigrants since the Puritans. Continuously, even today, citizenship continues to be an issue between liberals (Send me your poor…) and conservatives (Send your poor back where they came from). Modern commerce has a way of amalgamating necessary skills and education in the US regardless of citizenship via green cards and work permits – which is a different issue but still clouds citizenship for the likes of German scientists moved to the US at the end of the Second World War (only one of many obfuscating examples). Further examples are rampant in show business – Trevor Noah from South Africa, John Oliver from Britain, and Craig Ferguson from Scotland just to mention late show comedians.

Strictly speaking, one must be born in the US and its territories to be President. The point in all this is that citizenship in the US is a changing phenomenon as the nation has changing needs. For the moment, several significant world organizations have said that the West has aging populations to the point that economic futures will be affected (consider our concern about the solvency of Social Security). Perhaps the US should welcome as many immigrants as possible to protect the future economy of our nation. That’s one way to assure solvency in our Social Security system.

To wrap it up, Donald is wrong about Obama’s citizenship although one’s political party weighs in: A poll finds that 53 percent of Republicans still doubt Obama’s citizenship. At the same time, an overwhelming 70 percent don’t have any doubt Cruz is American and eligible to be president.

The Naturalization Act of 1790, which didn’t deal with presidential eligibility but provides that “the children of citizens of the United States, that may be born beyond sea, or out of the limits of the United States, shall be considered as natural born citizens.” They argue that Congress was clarifying what “natural born citizen” meant.

But University of San Diego School law professor Michael Ramsey says no one in Congress at the time said that the purpose of that statute was to define the term used in the Constitution.

“If children born abroad to American parents were natural born citizens, there would be no need for the 1790 statute,” Widener University law professor Mary Brigid McManamon, who agrees with Mr. Trump, told Law Blog. For a full accounting of the subject see:

http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2016/01/13/the-cruz-eligibility-question-legal-scholars-weigh-in/

Donald has raised a pesky legal issue for Cruz. Given the conservative nature of the Supreme Court, this case may never reach the Court or the Justices will patch-quilt a decision in Cruz’s favor based on the ever changing definition of “natural born citizen.”

Ancient Mariner

In Search of the Southwest Passage

 

Van dropped anchor in El Paso19:15 hours. Two reasons are behind this effort to sail the Southwest Deserts: Most important is gathering together a widely distributed set of our children. The long weekend has been an astounding success with good bonding and family renewal sure to provide confidence as all of us begin new adventures.

It has been a good shakedown cruise for Van and her crew. Van behaved remarkably well but the crew discovered it had a lot to learn about stowage.

The second reason, a very strong one albeit second to gathering the family, is the search for warmth. Mariner’s idea of warmth is Cancun, Mexico. In this respect, the cruise has been a dismal failure. Heavy snow, cold, sunless days overcast such that running lights were required. From Oklahoma to Flagstaff, the high was 34°F. Dropping down into the Phoenix basin did not improve things much with highs running 38° to a best of 50°F and a stiff cold wind to boot.

Arizona and New Mexico host three very large desserts; the flora and fauna is outstanding – the weather did not pass muster. Even as we steered Van into lower latitudes, El Paso offered 41°F with the coldest wind yet. Mariner is aware that San Antonio sits astride two biomes: to the north, one can expect weather very similar to our experience so far. To the south, there is a remarkable change in flora suggesting that it is virtually always warmer and does not experience hard frosts. It is in this more pleasant clime that the crew will dock Van for two days before we cruise to relatives and friends in Wylie, Texas and Havana, Arkansas – then back to home port for even colder weather.

Iowa caucuses grow near. Vote at any cost – but vote wisely. The US culture has come to a standstill that requires significant, visible commitment mostly from voters.

Ancient Mariner

 

Sailing On

The mariner disembarks for El Paso tomorrow. Bearing I-10 all the way.

Today, we visited a chocolate factory. It was difficult not to buy out their stock. Clemson lost. Phoenix provided a pleasant sunny day.

The January/February Atlantic is dedicated to the 2016 election. It provides a broad view of trends and discusses American shifts in culture regardless of the outcome of the election. Online, you can read the magazine at www.atlantic.com

Mariner often uses the phrase “old school” politician. The criminal abuse allowed by Michigan Governor Rick Snyder toward the city of Flint is an atrocity typical of old school politicians who protect status quo and destructively manipulate budgets to minimize budget overruns. In an article, CNN states “This had been the status quo for nearly two years and until September, city and state officials told worried residents that everything was fine. Former Flint Mayor Dayne Walling even drank it on local TV to make the point.

“When our team (Dr. Mona Hanna-Attisha, pediatrician) saw that it was getting into children and when we knew the consequences, that’s when I think we began not to sleep,” Hanna-Attisha said.

At first, the state publicly denounced her work, saying she was causing near hysteria. They spent a week attacking her before reversing their narrative and admitting she was right. See full article at:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/11/health/toxic-tap-water-flint-michigan/index.html

It is important to know your incumbent’s voting history as a guide. Use your search engine to retrieve specific information. For example, mariner typed “Steve King voting record gun legislation” and had King’s whole history regarding his votes on the gun issue. One can search several voting topics by changing the words behind ‘voting record.’

The reason this is unusually important is that you must vote for a cause of your choice and let that dictate whether you will vote for an incumbent. In the past, one would say “The Congress is terrible” but would reelect their own Congressman on very forgiving, general principles. Not so, this time. Vote for an issue, not a person.

Try to identify the candidate as ‘old school’ (stability and fiscal conservatism) versus ‘new school’ (identifying current and future issues with declared policies about the future).

Ancient mariner

In Port

The recently purchased van bids well on our journey. It is treated as any vessel of passage would be: as in traditional sailing, it is a she, and named for a notable. It is called “The Honorable Van Heflin” and we refer to her as ‘the Van.’

It is a wonderful event to have young, bright children and partners visit the Phoenix home rented for our reunion. They are full of energy, participating in life as each day comes to them, and brimming with the chutzpa necessary to succeed professionally and personally. We have the next three or four days together to create a permanent bond to hold us together until whenever.

Each couple is at a turning point in their lives; marriage, career and new home await their return to their homes. We will meet again in spring for a Hollywood style wedding and reception.

But other issues crowd in as the mariner enjoys his family. The news has bristled with many significant events that have occurred as mariner was in passage to Phoenix.

It is an unexpected abuse that recently accepted Middle East immigrants have generated a significant rash of sexual assaults in several European and Nordic countries. Strict, routine checks for terrorist associations cannot screen for intentional abuse of local women. Perhaps cultural behavior is more an issue than “terrorist incursions.”

Mariner spoke to his alter ego Guru to understand the Donald issue. It seems that the 2016 election will not be the pristine change of direction one imagined. Given that many cultural and political issues are in turmoil, and that there remains an intransigent resistance to future change, one must perceive that a step of cleansing must occur which may or may not extend beyond 2016 to 2024.

In his role, Donald may play a significant role as a reagent. A reagent is any chemical that loosens dirt and washes it away as soap may do to laundry. It may be a benefit for the extreme right to cast its votes for Donald only to see the votes emulsified and washed down the drain. Of course, as many reagents do, Donald could win the election and further scrub the old school politic away at the cost of four years and unnecessary conflict. However, whether or not Donald quickly performs his role as cultural reagent and loses in 2016, the paradigm shift in American politics will be well under way.

Mariner will produce the bettor’s sense of all this in the next post.

Ancient Mariner

 

The Western States – Independence versus Federal Management

Everyone who follows the reality of our times is aware of the complex priorities surrounding the nurturing of the Earth and its biosphere. The priorities range from global issues like chemical contaminants that destroy the ozone layer and the destructive effects of excessive Carbon on the environment, to more political and philosophical issues like international agreements to slow Carbon discharge and whether the Federal Government has the right to own and manage land in behalf of a balanced biome in the western states of the US. To understand the scope of this issue, the Federal Government owns fifty percent of the land in eleven western states; Federal Government owns over fifty percent of Nevada land – the State where Cliven Bundy took issue with the Federal Government over his “right to use Nevada’s land.”

This last issue, an argument today about the right of a national government to seize and hold land in behalf of a larger objective, provides an unusually clear dialogue about a person’s right to pursue life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness versus global values required to sustain human wellbeing in a global context. Right now, a test case is playing out – regarding the Cliven and Ammon Bundy confrontations with the Federal Government over the right to use Federally preserved property for farming and other private enterprises and, in Ammon’s case, the right of the Federal Government’s justice system to prosecute individuals for abusing “Government property.”

Beside the conflict between private enterprise and Federal control, this case provides a clear picture of the cultural shift in Federal objectives over time. Originally, very large sections of land were acquired by the Federal Government to assure that it would not be divided into disorganized uses that would prevent using the land for its natural resources, primarily lumber and grazing. The original intent, as the west became settled, was to sell off the Federal land in large acreages to private owners who would continue to pursue renewable practices for lumber and grazing. Later, around 1880-1890, there was a fear that private enterprise would strip the western resources of a ready supply of wood – as important then as oil is today – that would lead the nation into a natural resource crisis. As a result of this concern, the Federal Government’s attitude toward a sell-off faded.

In 1947, the Federal Government created The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) – the agency that attempted to seize Cliven Bundy’s cattle in 2014. The BLM is tasked with multiple and different interests, many of which conflict with each other. Objectives managed by the BLM include commodity production, grazing, recreation, ecological functioning, endangered species habitats, and revenue.

Fed Land west

In Cliven Bundy’s case, he refused to honor the rights of the Federal Government as owners of the land where he grazed his cattle and never paid over one million dollars in fees for the right to graze there. Fees began in 1993 when the BLM moved to reduce grazing to protect the endangered Desert Tortoise. When the BLM began removing cattle to be auctioned to pay overdue fees, the situation became an armed standoff as militant groups arrived ready to defend Bundy with weapons if necessary. BLM did not want this kind of escalation so they withdrew. Currently, the BLM plans to move through the Federal Court system. This is a slow process. The Bundy family, including Ammon, who is leading a takeover of a firehouse in Oregon, feels they won in Nevada and plan to expand their resistance as opportunities arise.

However, the case has much broader ramifications than a family feud with the Federal Government. Does the Federal Government have the right not only to seize and manage property, but to threaten citizens/businesses with confiscation of property if they fail to comply with Federal regulations? Substitute cap and trade for coal burning companies; can the Federal Government enforce environmental policy with the threat of a takeover? Hugo Chavez thought so when he nationalized Venezuela’s oil industry. Can the Federal Government take over power companies like Duke Electric in Georgia because of blatant and severely damaging abuse to local water resources? Can the Federal Government stop production of automobiles outright if Carbon standards and miles per gallon are in violation of Federal regulations? There are several precedents for government takeover in one form or another; remember prohibition? Remember the Keystone pipeline?

The Bundys have turned over a huge rock! The mariner suspects our capitalist-dominant culture is not ready for this much governmental authority. Nevertheless, science and technology are defining a path that leads to catastrophic disruption of Earth’s biome within a comparatively short time.

Who can make unbiased – and enforceable – decisions in this increasingly chaotic situation?

Ancient Mariner

The Big Race – 12-31

For readers who don’t frequent bookie sites, the mariner provides today’s odds versus two weeks ago that a candidate will be elected President.

Two Weeks Ago     ————-     12-31-2015

Hillary Clinton 8/11 72% 8/11 72%
Marco Rubio 5/1 20% 11/2 18%
Donald Trump 8/1 12½% 8/1 12½%
Ted Cruz 12/1 8% 10/1 10%
Jeb Bush 22/1 4½% 22/1 4½%
Bernie Sanders 28/1 3½% 20/1 5%
Chris Christie 33/1 3% 33/1 3%
Ben Carson 200/1 ½% 200/1 ½%
John Kasich 200/1 ½% 250/1 2/5%
Rand Paul 200/1 ½% 200/1 ½%
Martin O’Malley 250/1 2/5% 250/1 2/5%
Mike Huckabee 250/1 2/5% 500/1 2/10%
Carley Fiorina 250/1 2/5% 500/1 2/10%

Despite a few dropping in odds and only Bernie improving a smidge to move ahead of Jeb, positions have not changed in two weeks. Of course, two weeks is not meaningful before the primaries and November. Still, bettors with money where their mouth is instead of a free pollster are settling in. Take into account the democrats have an edge in the Electoral College (1.8 votes – typically enough to win) and the race is Hillary’s to lose. Too bad the DNC deliberately hides their debates to avoid public exposure to Bernie. All’s fair in love, war, and politics.

To reiterate, as we enter the primary season, give some thought to the undercard, that is, the reader’s senators, representatives, state legislators, governors and mayors. Many states are so tightly bound by grotesquely gerrymandered voting districts that the winners can be predicted without voting. This is not a healthy sign for a democracy. Only nine states are swing states – worth 130 Electoral College votes. They are:

Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire. In the last election, Colorado was the state that brought it  home for the democratic candidate.

217 electoral votes are necessary to win the Presidential election. If the reader wants to track changes, a good site is: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ or http://www.bing.com/search?q=which+states+tossup+for+presidential+election&qs=n&form=QBLH&pq=which+states+tossup+for+presidential+election&sc=0-19&sp=-1&sk=&cvid=CC555DFBC2CF4D5F88AFB548D98F4E22

This is a very important election. The mariner strongly, strongly urges the reader to attend your caucus or primary. Then, especially strongly, vote in November.

Ancient Mariner