The mariner drove to Colorado to visit family and attend to an apartment complex he owns. The trip is lengthy at 12 hours. It can be accomplished in one day but now the mariner takes two days to cover the distance – two six-hour drives is plenty.

While driving he listened to Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100 by Michio Kaku. A photograph of Michio Kaku is included in case you have not placed name with face.

The first part of the book describes how fast technology advances. In the last one hundred years, educated scientists predicted technological achievement at a much slower pace than how technology actually advanced. The automobile and aircraft existed around one hundred years ago and both were considered novelties that generally were not useful. One insightful scientist suggested that air balloons will be the main form of personal transportation – as common as the automobile today. No one believed high-speed trains were possible within the next one hundred years.

By 2100, Kaku predicts a full integration of every aspect of our lives. The Internet will enable the following:

Each piece of clothing you wear will have a chip that tracks wear and tear and will order a replacement automatically with a design approved by you. You may choose to select another design by scrolling through a specialized catalog based on your past selections. There is no mention of credit cards. The same is true for every object in your life. In a conversation with someone about the book, they asked, “Does that include spouses?”

The desktop, laptop, and handheld devices will disappear within a decade and slowly be replaced by contact lenses with a microchip embedded that performs all the automated functions you perform today on current devices.

There is a rule called Moore’s Law that says computer speed doubles every 18 months. It has held true since the invention of the first computer. Kaku says there is a limit where changes in technology will end Moore’s law. At that point, all information everywhere in the world will be simultaneous and available to anyone. Interestingly, Kaku says that as we implement the new technology, it will reduce the effectiveness of capitalism, which depends on exclusive information and time advantage. But everyone will already know everything and everyone world-wide will be introducing new information at the same time, sort of like Facebook except the input will be useful.

The walls of rooms in your house will be covered with wallpaper that is also a computer screen. Change the color and pattern with your contact lens computer. The walls are interactive with your movement. Further, you can place yourself anywhere in the world in a true three dimensional interactive way. For example, in your room, you can walk the streets of Rome in real time interacting with real people in Rome who will need contact lenses. Do not worry about language differences. As you speak with an Italian, the Internet will automatically make it sound as if you are speaking Italian and vice versa. Remember you are in Italy real time via the Internet. You will be able even to feel the loose stones on the street. The mariner can imagine that this capability will eliminate public transportation. Just blink your eye and click your heels!

You will have access to all knowledge instantly. Kaku predicts that soon, perhaps much less than 100 years, as you walk the streets and focus on a person coming toward you, that person’s name and biographical information pops up on your contact lens. Not just certain familiar persons, every person will be identified by face recognition. Every person! The mariner likes this part because remembering names, among many other things, is increasingly difficult.

A new form of x-ray will give you Superman’s power to see through walls and other objects. The mariner began to wonder about all these powers. He has been around the world a bit. He knows that some men wear women’s panties because they are more comfortable and, perhaps, there are Freudian perceptions at play. If a man walks into a room where others wait for his presentation, what effect will there be if everyone knows the man is wearing panties?

Using the seemingly transportable power of being anywhere in the world, places like Manhattan will be overrun with people from everywhere – or maybe if someone transported themselves to Times Square, it would appear empty because everyone in Manhattan transported themselves somewhere else – or everyone in Times Square is from everywhere but Manhattan. The imagination runs wild.

Kaku says that the combination of speed of light communications with universal awareness will enable a global culture. Nationalism, radical and reactionary movements, insider power and financial moves will diminish if not disappear altogether. Everyone will know everyone in context and everyone will have absolute knowledge.

Finally, Michio Kaku says we will have the power of the gods to create life in any form – even new types of life like a short-necked Giraffe who will viciously bite your toes off. We will heal with hand-held devices seen on Startrek, track viruses at the viral level and destroy them before you even know you may be getting a cold. Any cellular irregularity will be destroyed by a special injection using your own DNA. Your doctor, insurance company, boss and mother-in-law will know these things as they happen. Thank goodness for the Internet.

The mariner is overwhelmed, entertained and feels exposed. It may be the beginning of a technical version of transcendentalism. Emerson wrote in his 1837 speech “The American Scholar“:

“So shall we come to look at the world with new eyes. It shall answer the endless inquiry of the intellect, — What is truth? and of the affections, — What is good? by yielding itself passive to the educated Will. …Build, therefore, your own world. As fast as you conform your life to the pure idea in your mind, that will unfold its great proportions. A correspondent revolution in things will attend the influx of the spirit.”

Indeed. The Internet will allow us to conform our life to the pure idea in our individual minds while in our living room. Shades of The Matrix – at least we don’t have to conform our life in a casket! Will we all transcend the evils of human institutions and social class disparity? Will we have enlightenment? Will everyone know that we don’t have enlightenment?

Ancient Mariner

It is time we took the creationists to task. Why are so many afraid of evolution? In context, the creation story was written over six thousand years ago when virtually nothing was known about the Planet Earth, how the Sun and stars moved or even that the Earth was round. That being said, the creation story is a beautiful metaphor for why God’s world was created but not how.

Signs of evolution are all around us. Even the most uneducated understands that the many species of dogs are bred to be different from one another – a form of forced evolution derived from the original wolf. Even the most uneducated understands that Tommy has red hair because Grandpa had red hair.

However, evolution is more than the old arguments about Jewish history or other animals. The human being is evolving, too. A genetic history of humankind taken from blood samples proves that all humans go back to African ancestors. Three great migrations out of Africa created the Asian race, the European race and the Paleo-Indian race.

Awareness of our changes in early years of humankind, however, does not prepare us for how we will evolve. There are signs emerging that give us clues. The following examples foretell the direction of our evolution – a direction that leads to a human/electronic being. Not part human and part electronic but a genetically united new version of our species. That may sound like science fiction but the process is well under way.

To start simply, is a person with an artificial leg controlled by the brain still wholly “human?” Is a person with a pacemaker still wholly human? These are simple examples of the integration of humans and electronics.

Experiments with telepathy have developed to the point that in a laboratory, two individuals can compete playing a computer game directing the action only with their thoughts – no wires, no remote, just their brainwaves. Several television shows have televised the ability of disabled veterans to move limbs by directing the motion of prostheses with their brains. A double amputee won Olympic class races on springs instead of feet. These are primitive examples but one can understand that merging humans with electronics and changing powers of the brain to accommodate that integration is plausible.

A rat has been enabled by a chip in its brain to see and interact with wavelengths beyond normal visible wavelengths. Can humans be bred from birth with these capabilities? Perhaps with a fetal modification, an unusual skill will be normal for a lifetime or a deficient condition can be repaired. As human and electronic interdependencies become more common, perhaps parents will not want their child to fall behind in school because the child did not have a memory chip embedded.

The examples above are mechanical. Evolution also is occurring socially. One need only compare how an individual worked, shopped, traveled, communicated and maintained the home before 1996 versus how those under thirty do all these things with a small remote. Is this remote a harbinger of future human-electronic integration such that the remote device will become integrated within the human body?

Yes.

Ancient Mariner

Let’s look at the global warming issue. The mariner has pulled together some information from newscasts and scientific sources.

From Science Daily (www.sciencedaily.com) :  “Sea-level rise in this century is likely to be 70-120 centimeters [27 inches to 47 inches] by 2100 if greenhouse-gas emissions are not mitigated, a broad assessment of the most active scientific publishers on that topic has revealed. (Credit: © Thierry Hoarau / Fotolia)”

If this is true, all the coastlines of the United States will have normal tide levels three to four feet higher. Having lived on coastal waters for many years, the mariner knows that virtually every beach will be under water. Louisiana and Florida will suffer drastic economic situations. In Maryland, the mariner’s home State, the Annapolis Harbor, among many, will be flooded and in places wash onto the streets at high tide – not to mention the effects of stormy weather.

Many readers will not be around at the end of the century. However, the sea levels already have risen three inches; the shoreline will disappear even as we live day-to-day.

Counterpoint:

“Sixteen prominent scientists recently signed an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal expressing their belief that the theory of global warming is not supported by science. This has not been getting the attention it deserves because politicians (looking at you Al Gore) are frankly embarrassed to admit that they are wrong about the phenomenon known as global warming. Not only has our planet stopped warming, but we may be headed toward a vast cooling period.

New data shows that in fact the Earth has not warmed at all over the last 15 years. In fact, theDaily Mail reports that the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, after taking data from nearly 30,000 stations around the world, have found that the earth stopped warming in 1997. The report suggests we are headed toward a new solar cycle, Cycle 25, which NASA scientists have predicted will be significantly cooler than Cycle 24 which we are in now. This data largely contradicts the accepted theory among the public that carbon dioxide pollution is causing global warming and even proposes that we are actually heading toward global cooling.”

To the mariner, sixteen scientists doesn’t seem like an overwhelming crowd. Most scientists back the fact that the Earth is warming. A big political issue is whether the human race has disrupted normal earth climate.

On the other hand, several scientific sources that draw their data from different databases do predict a weak Solar cycle within the century. If it were strong enough, it may cool the oceans a degree or more; certainly, weather will be much colder in arctic and temperate zones. The mariner sees three issues:

(a)        The climate is warming or otherwise is too warm as it is – the melted Arctic Sea accounts for that. Further, ask any polar bear; the species is endangered. A small indicator is that plants are blooming two weeks earlier in Vermont, creating difficulties for migrating birds and insects that arrive too late for blooming season.

(b)        The Sun by far has the most influence on the weather on Earth – many times more than any global pollution argument. While the Solar cycle may save the planet from desert temperatures, it does not disprove human pollution.

(c)         Human pollution is affecting the climate. This is a political issue for sure. Read republican documents (highly influenced by the oil industry) and climate change is a myth. Read democratic literature (greatly influenced by new technology) and climate change will be the ruin of the human race.

The mariner accepts arguments based on carbon particles and gases. Machines and balloons that sit in odd or remote places, not affected by politics, collect atmospheric data without prejudice. It is true, as Al Gore will say, that carbon pollution has risen almost vertically since the year 2000. Recent news coverage of Chinese cities show visibility is limited to a block or so demonstrates the solid carbon particles discharged by human activity ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzz6TWNRUAc.  Two other arguments come to mind: Midwest electric and steel plant smoke that killed trees all the way to the Atlantic Ocean with acid rain; the Love Canal scandal where the town had unbelievably high rates of cancer that traced back to 21,000 tons of radioactive waste buried under the town.

What concerns the mariner more is the human race has little concern for the path of waste and abuse in its wake. Politics aside, Americans waste one-third of their food; waste dumps are almost as overloaded as our prisons, and the number of fellow species are disappearing at an alarming rate because human population has and is ruining natural habitats.

The conflict between government and corporate growth versus the natural environment is a tough one. It may run many decades. Maybe growing a few vegetables in the window, eating leftovers and recycling our glass and plastic may make a small difference in our own air quality. Buy products that are safe for the environment. Support climate magazines. Individuals must do something because there is no government in the world that can take definitive action on human abuse of the global environment.

And no one has mentioned methane. Damned cows!

Ancient Mariner

The quickest trick to play on the brain to demonstrate that a human brain does not process probability is to say, “You Gotta Play to Win.” This sets up in the brain a simple equation: If you don’t play, you won’t win and if you do play, you will win. Well, maybe not every time….

The phenomenon called probability has intrigued mariner for some time. The brain operates strictly on a cause and effect mode – information in, information out. Probability, however, does not operate that way. Probability is free to behave randomly in terms of cause and effect expectations.

As a warm up for this post, visit my favorite university at

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/applied-math/cryptography/random-algorithms-probability/v/bayes-theorem-visualized

The weatherman says there is a ten percent chance of rain. To take the statement literally as a cause and effect event, everyone will receive ten percent of all the rain today. Alternatively, one could deduce that the weatherman has said this many times before and it did not rain so the probability in the listener’s mind is quite different from ten percent. Bayes’ Theorem, which will be discussed later, is able to discern the difference between what is expected and what may happen.

A recent book and a Nobel Prizewinner for economics, “Thinking Fast and Slow,” by Daniel Kahneman, has an excellent chapter that discusses why the brain is so easily fooled by probability. A key concept in the book is the “anchor” effect. The first piece of information the brain receives becomes an anchor that unduly affects proper judgment as later information is added. Kahneman’s example:

“The initial price offered for a used car sets the standard for the rest of the negotiations, so that prices lower than the initial price seem more reasonable even if they are still higher than what the car is really worth.”

The anchor effect is isolated quite nicely by Nate Silver in his book, “The Signal and the Noise,” which is about identifying the correct anchor in sports betting. Silver takes the reader through many examples of mistaken anchors that did not consider the appropriate first piece of information and therefore led to gambling losses. It is in Silver’s book that he simplifies Bayes’ Theorem, which is a massive and complex set of calculations.

Silver sets up a simple set of questions:

X = prior assumption (first piece of information):

Do you think your husband cheats on you? The woman thinks

it is unlikely and says maybe 5%. X=.05

Y = a new event occurs: a strange pair of panties is discovered in the

husband’s car. Is this true evidence or an unexplained

circumstance? What are the chances it is circumstantial?

The wife thinks maybe 20%. Y=.20
Z= What are the chances it is true evidence that the husband has been cheating? The wife thinks maybe 80% Z=.80

Nate Silver sets up the following equation:

___XY____                    .01___                = .013                                                                 XY+Z (1-X)                .81 (.95)

Roughly one chance in a hundred that the husband is cheating. The equation demonstrates the power of the anchor effect. The wife had a very low value (.05) as the first piece of information. This made the later values less effective even though the panties were a strong piece of evidence.

In reality, the husband will have a lot of explaining to do because the brain does not think in terms of probabilities.

Ancient Mariner

All of us are familiar with news about global warming, more energy in the atmosphere that increases severe weather, and rising oceans. There are side effects that are escalating: disappearance of polar bears, pandas, gibbons, and hundreds more species associated with the human misuse of the planet. There is the issue of overpopulation, food distribution, interference by nationalism that stops solutions, abuse by entrepreneurs and corporations that lead to oil spills, ground pollution, air pollution, acid rain and on and on.

What all these troubled issues have in common is that they are manmade and man can repair them. While this is a tall order for humans, at least a solution is identifiable – if never accomplished.

Other troubles for the planet (from the human perspective) are not manmade and humans have no control over these planetary processes. Planet earth is in the midst of a polar shift of the magnetic field – the North Pole will become the South Pole and vice versa. Already a magnetic compass is of little use in most of the southern Atlantic Ocean. More important to humans is that while this polar shift occurs, the magnetic field protecting the Earth from dangerous solar wind will be weak and virtually disappear for a length of time. The effect is increased occurrences of cancer, unknown damage to plant and animal evolution, disruption of satellite communication, etc.

Another planetary issue is the wobble effect in the Earth’s declination. Very much like the toy gyroscope wobble, the Earth reaches a point of imbalance that causes a very noticeable adjustment in declination. The Earth’s “wobble” is increasing. The effect of the chaotic moment will bring on our next ice age. Some scientific predictions suggest this will happen in this century, though data is incomplete.

The major currents of the Earth’s oceans are slowing. For example, the Gulf Stream is pushing less and less warmth to the North Atlantic. This will cause very large changes in long term weather patterns along the eastern half of North America – it will be colder and Arctic fronts may visit Georgia; The British Isles may well have an eco shift toward weather more familiar in the Nordic nations.

(There was a link here but I removed it because many articles were not scientific in nature)

There are many more planetary activities beyond human control; one well known one is the impact of a meteor. Most relate in one way or another to the issues mentioned in this post.Lastly, more an entertaining factoid than a troublesome event, is the fact that the Moon is drifting away from the Earth at the same rate as one’s fingernails grow – about two and a half inches per year.

Ancient Mariner